Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Springfield, MO

482 
WWUS53 KSGF 271947
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
247 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOC217-271957-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0082.000000T0000Z-140427T2000Z/
VERNON MO-
247 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3804 9428 3805 9427 3804 9422 3806 9421
      3805 9419 3806 9413 3804 9411 3804 9406
      3799 9406 3784 9422 3794 9434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1947Z 214DEG 38KT 3809 9412

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1254 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

Complex severe weather scenario looks to unfold across the region
over the next 6-12 hours, as several potential waves of strong to
severe convection affect the area.

Initial concern as of 17Z is a strengthening band of mainly
elevated convection moving northeast across extreme western
Missouri, extending southeast into the Table Rock Lake region. This
convection will continue to move northeast this afternoon, with
embedded isolated strong to severe storms. Hail will be the main
concern with this convection given its elevated nature, though an
occasional strong wind gust isn't entirely out of the question.
Should this convection become more surface based with time
(possibly later this afternoon across central MO and eastern
Ozarks), then a conditional tornado threat will exist.

As one might imagine, this leading area of convection complicates
this situation later this afternoon/evening.  Along with the
possibility of this initial round of convection becoming surface
based across central MO and the eastern Ozarks, will also be closely
watching the dry line across east-central Oklahoma, from Tulsa south
to west of the Ft Smith region.  The airmass across this area is
largely untouched, with upper 60s dewpoints advecting into the
region.  Some breaks are noted in vis satellite across this region,
and as temperatures warm into the upper 70s/near 80, MLCAPE values
should increase to around 2000-2500 J/KG.  An area of enhanced
height falls should overspread this area between 20Z and 22Z this
afternoon, which will be the favored window for supercell
development along the dryline.  While convective initiation is
somewhat conditional, if it should take place, supercells should
find themselves in a favorable environment across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas.  Storm motions toward the northeast would then
bring any convection that fires along the dry line into southern
Missouri later this evening. Any supercells that are able to move
into southern Missouri later this evening/tonight would bring with
them the potential for very large hail, gusty winds, and
tornadoes.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday night)

An episode of severe thunderstorms will impact extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks today. We're starting to see
model consensus regarding the evolution and timing of these
storms. The three models we leaned our forecast toward, includes
the 00Z HiRes ARW, 05Z H-Trip, and the 00Z ECMWF.

Consensus amongst these solutions showed a large band of deep
convection to develop across the central Plains early this
morning, and approach southeast Kansas and western Missouri by 10
or 11am.

The primary forcing mechanism can be traced back to the main belt
of large scale ascent aloft, in response to the upper cyclone
ejecting over the Plains.

This band of convection would shift eastward into the Highway 65
corridor from 1pm to 3pm...and into the eastern Ozarks late
afternoon and evening.

When considering this timing, limitations on instability levels
could play out. Cloud cover and precipitation could keep mixed layer
capes below 1000 j/kg over most of the Ozarks the entire day. This
modest level of available energy will likely limit storm impacts.

One final note regarding instability, moisture quality within
this system is not that great. We analyzed soundings out of Fort
Worth, Norman, Little Rock, and Shreveport. All three measurements
showed an elevated mixed layer, keeping precipitable water values
low.

The better moisture can be found within the Lake Charles RAOB. This
air mass was nosing into southeast Texas this morning. This higher
octane air is unlikely to make it into southern Missouri today,
but will spread deep into Arkansas, thus potentially more impact
from storms in central/eastern Arkansas later today.

When considering wind shear, numerous organized updrafts will
unfold, and should yield a decent frequency of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. We currently think there is a lower risk for
tornadoes, since levels of instability and placement of
instability within the southern Missouri air mass is uncertain.

So from a message and Hazardous Weather Outlook standpoint, we
will include a limited risk for tornadoes, with higher risks for
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The HiRes ARW has storms exiting the eastern Ozarks around
midnight or shortly after.  Most solutions suggest that Monday's
convection will fire closer to the Mississippi Delta regions,
keeping the severe weather risk east of the Springfield CWA.

The Pacific front will move through southern Missouri on Monday. A
cooling trend will then occur, as overnight lows on Monday night fall
into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)

A highly blocked pattern then evolves over much of the lower 48. A
long wave trough carves through the nation's midsection, while
strong ridging builds along the West Coast. This will keep
temperatures on the cool side through the entire week. We could
also experience some showers from time to time, although many
locations across the Ozarks should remain dry.

Temperatures on Tuesday will struggle to warm out of the 60s,
eventually falling into the lower 40s Tuesday night.

Even cooler temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with readings
failing to warm out of the 50s. Perhaps Wednesday night into
Thursday morning will be the coldest period this week, with lows
in the upper 30s. Some middle 30s are possible Thursday morning in
areas sheltered within the Ozark terrain.

There are some indications that the upper trough finally fills and
moves toward the Great Lakes by Saturday night or Sunday. Most
medium range solutions suggest northwest flow across mid America.
This would allow for slightly warmer temperatures. However, there
are no indications of decent precip changes in the long term
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

A large and slow moving storm system moving into the central portion
of the country will bring several rounds of shower and thunderstorm
activity to southwestern Missouri Airfields into the evening hours
today.  Expect periods of MVFR due to lower ceilings and reduced
forward visibility in heavier rainfall associated with convective
activity. As this system slowly progresses eastward this evening and
tonight...precipitation will abate from west to east.  Included a
period of low level wind shear at all three airfields this evening
due to strong southwesterly flow just above the surface associated
with this system.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Colucci

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1201 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
  POSSIBLE.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING DRYLINE
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
CAN PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN OZARKS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO MARSHFIELD
  TO GAINESVILLE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTHEAST OF
  THIS LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     HAIL             2 S HORTON              37.95N 94.36W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JCOLUCCI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOZ078-079-089-271815-
CEDAR MO-POLK MO-DADE MO-
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CEDAR...NORTHEASTERN DADE AND
NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM CDT...

AT 1247 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREENFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.
NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE ARCOLA...ARNICA...BEARCREEK...BONA...CANE
HILL...CAPLINGER MILLS...CEDAR SPRINGS...DADEVILLE...DUNNEGAN...EL
DORADO SPRINGS...FAIR PLAY...FILLEY...FLEMINGTON...GREENFIELD...
HUMANSVILLE...MASTERS...NEOLA...STOCKTON...UMBER VIEW HEIGHTS AND
WAGONER.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE STOCKTON
LAKE AND STOCKTON STATE PARK.

PEOPLE IN CEDAR...NORTHEASTERN DADE AND NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES...
INCLUDING GREENFIELD...STOCKTON LAKE...STOCKTON STATE PARK...FAIR
PLAY AND HUMANSVILLE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY.
LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3787 9381 3783 9381 3783 9358 3781 9357
      3781 9341 3732 9376 3747 9396 3786 9407
      3790 9406
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 208DEG 47KT 3744 9380

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
107 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     HAIL             SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OBSERVED AT NWS OFFICE.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
117 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1233 PM     HAIL             TANEYVILLE              36.74N 93.03W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

&&

JCOLUCCI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
120 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOZ079-080-271845-
POLK MO-DALLAS MO-
120 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DALLAS AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL
145 PM CDT...

AT 119 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BRIGHTON...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF BOLIVAR...
MOVING NORTH AT 70 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BOLIVAR...BRIGHTON...BUFFALO...FOOSE...
GOODSON...HALF WAY...LOUISBURG...MORRISVILLE...PLAD...PLEASANT
HOPE...POLK AND PUMPKIN CENTER.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE POMME DE
TERRE LAKE.

PEOPLE IN DALLAS AND POLK COUNTIES...INCLUDING PLEASANT HOPE...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3744 9353 3781 9346 3779 9292 3742 9319
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 201DEG 59KT 3747 9332

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
129 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOZ095-096-104-271900-
CHRISTIAN MO-DOUGLAS MO-TANEY MO-
129 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CHRISTIAN...NORTH CENTRAL
TANEY AND WESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM CDT...

AT 124 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GARRISON...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF
FORSYTH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AVA...BRADLEYVILLE...BRUNER...DOGWOOD...
ELKHEAD...GARRISON...GOODHOPE AND KELTNER.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CHRISTIAN...NORTHERN TANEY AND WESTERN DOUGLAS
COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3683 9311 3709 9295 3709 9290 3707 9290
      3707 9255 3706 9247 3674 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 217DEG 51KT 3687 9295

WISE