Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Springfield, MO

863 
WWUS53 KSGF 271731
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1231 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOC109-271741-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-140427T1800Z/
LAWRENCE MO-
1231 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LAWRENCE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3693 9400 3729 9396 3728 9361 3720 9361
      3692 9372
TIME...MOT...LOC 1731Z 205DEG 37KT 3718 9371

$$

WISE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
710 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Monday night)

An episode of severe thunderstorms will impact extreme southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks today. We're starting to see
model consensus regarding the evolution and timing of these
storms. The three models we leaned our forecast toward, includes
the 00Z HiRes ARW, 05Z H-Trip, and the 00Z ECMWF.

Consensus amongst these solutions showed a large band of deep
convection to develop across the central Plains early this
morning, and approach southeast Kansas and western Missouri by 10
or 11am.

The primary forcing mechanism can be traced back to the main belt
of large scale ascent aloft, in response to the upper cyclone
ejecting over the Plains.

This band of convection would shift eastward into the Highway 65
corridor from 1pm to 3pm...and into the eastern Ozarks late
afternoon and evening.

When considering this timing, limitations on instability levels
could play out. Cloud cover and precipitation could keep mixed layer
capes below 1000 j/kg over most of the Ozarks the entire day. This
modest level of available energy will likely limit storm impacts.

One final note regarding instability, moisture quality within
this system is not that great. We analyzed soundings out of Fort
Worth, Norman, Little Rock, and Shreveport. All three measurements
showed an elevated mixed layer, keeping precipitable water values
low.

The better moisture can be found within the Lake Charles RAOB. This
air mass was nosing into southeast Texas this morning. This higher
octane air is unlikely to make it into southern Missouri today,
but will spread deep into Arkansas, thus potentially more impact
from storms in central/eastern Arkansas later today.

When considering wind shear, numerous organized updrafts will
unfold, and should yield a decent frequency of large hail and
damaging wind gusts. We currently think there is a lower risk for
tornadoes, since levels of instability and placement of
instability within the southern Missouri air mass is uncertain.

So from a message and Hazardous Weather Outlook standpoint, we
will include a limited risk for tornadoes, with higher risks for
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

The HiRes ARW has storms exiting the eastern Ozarks around
midnight or shortly after.  Most solutions suggest that Monday's
convection will fire closer to the Mississippi Delta regions,
keeping the severe weather risk east of the Springfield CWA.

The Pacific front will move through southern Missouri on Monday. A
cooling trend will then occur, as overnight lows on Monday night fall
into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)

A highly blocked pattern then evolves over much of the lower 48. A
long wave trough carves through the nation's midsection, while
strong ridging builds along the West Coast. This will keep
temperatures on the cool side through the entire week. We could
also experience some showers from time to time, although many
locations across the Ozarks should remain dry.

Temperatures on Tuesday will struggle to warm out of the 60s,
eventually falling into the lower 40s Tuesday night.

Even cooler temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with readings
failing to warm out of the 50s. Perhaps Wednesday night into
Thursday morning will be the coldest period this week, with lows
in the upper 30s. Some middle 30s are possible Thursday morning in
areas sheltered within the Ozark terrain.

There are some indications that the upper trough finally fills and
moves toward the Great Lakes by Saturday night or Sunday. Most
medium range solutions suggest northwest flow across mid America.
This would allow for slightly warmer temperatures. However, there
are no indications of decent precip changes in the long term
periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: A slow moving storm will produce
periods of showers and thunderstorms over the region especially
during the 27/15z-28/00z time frame ahead of a dry line that is
expected to move quickly through the area. Ceilings will vary, but
will generally be vfr, especially early in the taf period with
considerable capping/strong elevated mixed layer. The overall
better chances for precip will likely occur in the afternoon and
early evening at KBBG and KSGF with a weakening cap while abundant
low level moisture is still in place. Much drier air will move
into the area this evening and overnight with vfr conditions
expected.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1201 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-281715-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1201 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
  POSSIBLE.

A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING DRYLINE
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH
CAN PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN OZARKS AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM OSCEOLA TO MARSHFIELD
  TO GAINESVILLE. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED NORTHEAST OF
  THIS LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     HAIL             2 SW PURDY              36.80N 93.95W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

&&

JCOLUCCI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1202 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOZ094-102-271730-
BARRY MO-LAWRENCE MO-
1202 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LAWRENCE AND NORTH CENTRAL BARRY
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT NOON CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MONETT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN BARRY COUNTIES...INCLUDING MONETT...
VERONA AND MOUNT VERNON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3688 9401 3729 9399 3728 9361 3714 9361
      3689 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 1702Z 203DEG 40KT 3692 9387

WISE