Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Springfield, MO

632 
WWUS53 KSGF 272240
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

MOC131-272250-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-140327T2245Z/
MILLER MO-
540 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN MILLER COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 545 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3843 9241 3842 9240 3834 9240 3834 9219
      3833 9220 3834 9223 3833 9228 3832 9269
      3835 9268 3835 9264 3844 9262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 260DEG 44KT 3842 9230

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CDT Thu Mar 27 2014

...Risk for Strong to Severe Storms through this Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

Special upper air release shortly after 18z showed a cap still in
place but eroding around 700 to 800 mb. 500 mb analysis shows a 90
knot jet core moving northeastward out of northern Oklahoma into
southeast Kansas and western Missouri at this time. There is a
narrow corridor of clearing skies and more unstable airmass over
southeast Kansas moving into western Missouri at this time where
surface temperatures are warming into the lower 70s and dewpoints
are getting into the middle 50s.

In the narrow corridor where the cap goes away...there will be about
1000 to 1500 J/KG of MUCAPE potential. Shear is extremely robust
with this system. Updrafts will be hard to maintain themselves for
very long given too much shear at times. Expect tiny robust updrafts
with these storms for a short amount of time. Any heavy downpours
will bring down low level wind fields to the surface which is the
main threat with any of this convection. Winds right off the surface
of 50 plus knots can easily be transported downward in downdrafts.
Given shear but tiny updrafts...expecting hail no larger than half
dollars.

The best potential for an isolated tornado or two will be along
and west of I-49 corridor between mid afternoon and early evening
with a discrete cell given the low level shear. Storm modes will
transition into line segments around sunset this evening or by the
time it reaches the Highway 65 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

The cold front will push eastward across the Ozarks this evening
as a vigorous shortwave trough tracks northeast across the
Midwest. Expect thunderstorms to evolve into linear segments along
the front but cannot rule out discrete supercells along and just
ahead of the line through early evening. The potential for severe
storms will persist through much of the evening but the risk will
gradually diminish after sunset. Damaging wind gusts will
remain the primary hazard risk given the strong environmental
winds just off of the surface while large will also be possible.
The limited risk for a tornado will diminish with sunset.

The front will push to our south overnight but stall as another
shortwave trough approaches Friday. This will bring showers
northward back into southern Missouri by Friday afternoon. This
activity will be most numerous near the Arkansas border where a
few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Otherwise a mostly
cloudy sky and cooler temperatures can be expected Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

A quasi-zonal pattern will set up this weekend into next week
across the CONUS. This will bring shortwaves and accompanying
fronts eastward across the region every couple of days while
maintaining seasonably mild temperatures.

A return southerly flow by Sunday will send temperatures well into
the 60s to near 70 degrees. The warming temperatures and
increasing southerly Sunday will result in elevated fire weather
conditions.

The next front will arrive Monday and may be accompanied by
scattered showers. A better chance of convection will develop
during mid week as the next shortwave arrives and taps into a
better moisture supply.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

Pilots can expect very windy conditions through this evening as a cold
front moves into the region. Frequent gusts over 30 kts can be
expected. MVFR ceilings will prevail with some breaks in the
clouds later in the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will
develop along and just ahead of the front as it moves across the
area from mid afternoon into early this evening. Some of these
storms could be severe. Winds will shift to the west and northwest
behind the front this evening with VFR conditions returning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR MOZ055-056-
     066>069-077>081-088>095-101>103.

KS...WIND ADVISORY until 5 PM CDT this afternoon FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

MESOSCALE...Griffin
SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Foster

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
453 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-282200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
453 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  ELEVATED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

AN ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE STORMS WILL IMPACT THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR
THROUGH 6 PM AND REACH HIGHWAY 65 BY 8 PM...AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE MISSOURI OZARKS DURING LATE EVENING.

SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...
AND A SMALL RISK FOR TORNADOES MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON
TO MARSHFIELD TO VIENNA THIS EVENING.

THE STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE MAIN STORM
THREATS BECOMING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION TO THE
EAST BY 1 AM.

WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH TO AS HIGH AS 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY
WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI GENERALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO MARSHFIELD TO VIENNA.
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA WITH IN THE NEXT
6 HORUS.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
126 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0126 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST FORT SCOTT              37.84N 94.71W
03/27/2014  M51 MPH          BOURBON            KS   AWOS

            51 MPH WIND GUSTS REPORTED BY THE FORT SCOTT AWOS.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
133 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0132 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 NW JOPLIN             37.10N 94.54W
03/27/2014  M53 MPH          JASPER             MO   ASOS

            JOPLIN ASOS REPORTED A 53 MPH WIND GUST.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
341 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST PITTSBURG               37.41N 94.70W
03/27/2014  M50 MPH          CRAWFORD           KS   AWOS

            50 MPH WIND GUSTS REPORTED.

&&

MGRIFFIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0434 PM     HAIL             WARSAW                  38.24N 93.38W
03/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       BENTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED JUST SOUTH OF WARSAW.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
457 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             2 W SYRACUSE            38.67N 92.91W
03/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       MORGAN             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZED HIAL REPORTED JUST WEST OF SYRACUSE.

&&

JCOLUCCI