Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
829 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

...Severe Weather Risk Continues This Evening...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 820 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

An evolution of storm mode was in progress this evening. The discrete
supercell storms that exploded along the dry line late in the
afternoon had weakened. However a couple of convective line
segments had taken shape and intensified in southwestern
Missouri.

Expect convection to be reinvigorated at least to some degree the
remainder of the evening as a coupled jet structure will lead to
enhanced upper level divergence over a good portion of the Missouri
Ozarks.

Strong deep layer shear around 60 kts and most unstable CAPE near
1500 J/KG will be supportive of storm organization through the
evening.

0-3 KM bulk shear vectors are supportive of meso vorticies or
supercell structures with these line segments with an enhanced
wind threat with northeast surges within the line. While low level
shear with 0-1 KM helicities on the order of 250 m2/s2 and 0-1 KM
bulk shear around 25 kts will be supportive of tornadoes the
thermodynamics in the lowest levels cast a little more uncertainty
on the risk for tornadoes with low level CAPE diminishing to the
east.

Overall the risk for all modes severe weather Will continue this
evening including tornadoes. However expect the damaging straight line
winds the primary risk. Tornado development will be more of the
quick spin up variety within meso-vorticies embedded in the line
segments.

Storms and the severe weather risk will continue across the eastern
Ozarks into the early morning hours.

Strong convection continues to push north from Arkansas into far
south central Missouri. This activity could also be locally
severe.

Will have to monitor the potential for localized flooding across
far south central Missouri as convection trains northward from
Arkansas.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect for all of the Missouri Ozarks
until 2 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

Main concern for this evening will be potential storms developing
to our west along a dryline currently extending across eastern
Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Latest LAPS analyses show that the
airmass immediately ahead of the dryline remains unstable with
CAPE values around 2000-3000j/kg with no inhibition. So do not
plan to let the current tornado watch go anytime soon. Storms that
developed earlier today and continue along the MO/KS border and
over the eastern MO Ozarks have produced sporadic hail and severe
wind gusts...but likely remain rooted above the boundary layer
with convective inhibition values over 100 j/kg.

Will keep storm chances going over the entire forecast area
through the evening and then begin to taper chances off from west
to east after Midnight. Will make last minute adjustments on
mention of severe storms in the zone forecast but currently plan
to keep severe mention east of Highway 65 through the night...and
go with severe for just the evening west of this line.

Other concern will be with heavy rainfall over our southeast
counties through tonight where a potential mesoscale convective
complex is expected to track northeast from Arkansas and add to
the rain already received this afternoon. So will post a Flood
Watch for Oregon/Shannon/Howell counties for tonight.

As we go into late tonight and Monday...will mainly follow NAM
timing on ending precip over our eastern zones around Midday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

The upper level low pressure center is expected to become cut off
from main upper flow and meander across the upper Midwest through
Thursday...which will make timing of precipitation rather tricky
as spokes of energy rotate around the upper low. Have a little
more confidence in the fact that most of the precipitation should
be on the lighter side.

Temperatures are still expected to be unseasonably cool with the
cutoff low ushering in a Canadian airmass over the region.
Wednesday night and Thursday night still look to be the coldest
and overall have gone upper 30s to lower 40s for minimums.

The upper low will finally shift northeast into the Great Lakes
region by Friday with some moderation in temperatures through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

A large and slow moving storm system moving into the central portion
of the country will bring several rounds of shower and thunderstorm
activity to southwestern Missouri Airfields into the evening hours
today.  Expect periods of MVFR due to lower ceilings and reduced
forward visibility in heavier rainfall associated with convective
activity. As this system slowly progresses eastward this evening and
tonight...precipitation will abate from west to east.  Included a
period of low level wind shear at all three airfields this evening
due to strong southwesterly flow just above the surface associated
with this system.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ097-098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Colucci

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
923 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-290230-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
923 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE
  OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH POSSIBLE
  SUPERCELLS.

  SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND
  ISOLATED TORNADOES.

  LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
  CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS ON
  MONDAY MORNING.

  WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
  AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
  ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

FOSTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
858 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TORNADO          HAMMOND                 37.94N 94.69W
04/27/2014                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TORNADO PRODUCED AN INTERMITTENT DAMAGE PATH TO THE
            NORTHEAST OF HAMMOND AFTER DAMAGING A GRAIN ELEVATOR AND
            OVERTURNING A RAIL CAR.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
901 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0539 PM     TORNADO          BAXTER SPRINGS          37.02N 94.74W
04/27/2014                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TORNADO DAMAGED OR DESTROYED NUMEROUS HOMES AND SEVERAL
            BUILDINGS IN DOWNTOWN BAXTER SPRINGS.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
923 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     HAIL             2 SW PURDY              36.80N 93.95W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       BARRY              MO   PUBLIC

1220 PM     HAIL             2 S HORTON              37.95N 94.36W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

1233 PM     HAIL             TANEYVILLE              36.74N 93.03W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       TANEY              MO   PUBLIC

0106 PM     HAIL             SPRINGFIELD             37.20N 93.29W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OBSERVED AT NWS OFFICE.

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N NEVADA              37.88N 94.35W
04/27/2014                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOFING MATERIAL REMOVED FROM OUTBUILDINGS.

0435 PM     HAIL             BAKERSFIELD             36.52N 92.14W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       OZARK              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

0450 PM     HAIL             2 W POTTERSVILLE        36.70N 92.06W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

0450 PM     HAIL             3 SSE UNIONTOWN         37.80N 94.96W
04/27/2014  E0.88 INCH       BOURBON            KS   AMATEUR RADIO

0505 PM     HAIL             WILLOW SPRINGS          36.99N 91.97W
04/27/2014  E2.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

0514 PM     HAIL             LICKING                 37.50N 91.86W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       TEXAS              MO   PUBLIC

0515 PM     HAIL             CLEAR SPRINGS           37.10N 91.85W
04/27/2014  E1.75 INCH       TEXAS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0539 PM     TORNADO          BAXTER SPRINGS          37.02N 94.74W
04/27/2014                   CHEROKEE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TORNADO DAMAGED OR DESTROYED NUMEROUS HOMES AND SEVERAL
            BUILDINGS IN DOWNTOWN BAXTER SPRINGS.

0540 PM     TORNADO          HAMMOND                 37.94N 94.69W
04/27/2014                   BOURBON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A TORNADO PRODUCED AN INTERMITTENT DAMAGE PATH TO THE
            NORTHEAST OF HAMMOND AFTER DAMAGING A GRAIN ELEVATOR AND
            OVERTURNING A RAIL CAR.

0640 PM     HAIL             IRWIN                   37.59N 94.29W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 W LAMAR               37.49N 94.40W
04/27/2014                   BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TIN OBSERVED IN TREES

0728 PM     HAIL             NEOSHO                  36.87N 94.37W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       NEWTON             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KARDELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
948 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOZ056-057-280315-
MILLER MO-MORGAN MO-
948 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MILLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN MORGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 944 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKY MOUNT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ELDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELDON AND AURORA SPRINGS BY 955 PM CDT.
  OLEAN AND 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF ETTERVILLE BY 1000 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE LAKE OF
THE OZARKS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3849 9269 3844 9262 3843 9241 3842 9240
      3835 9240 3834 9232 3821 9264 3822 9269
      3834 9284 3850 9272
TIME...MOT...LOC 0249Z 220DEG 41KT 3834 9268

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1039 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

MOZ069-080-081-280415-
CAMDEN MO-LACLEDE MO-DALLAS MO-
1039 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL DALLAS...NORTHERN
LACLEDE AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

AT 1037 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF
ELDRIDGE TO BENNETT SPRINGS TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF BENNETT SPRINGS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE LEBANON.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE BENNETT
SPRING STATE PARK...HA HA TONKA STATE PARK...LAKE OF THE OZARKS STATE
PARK AND LAKE OF THE OZARKS. INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 122
AND 143 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3807 9257 3805 9255 3805 9253 3802 9251
      3802 9241 3790 9241 3773 9242 3756 9289
      3767 9288 3783 9291
TIME...MOT...LOC 0339Z 230DEG 35KT 3782 9281 3773 9279
          3764 9284

HATCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1052 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     HAIL             ELDRIDGE                37.83N 92.75W
04/27/2014  E0.88 INCH       LACLEDE            MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KARDELL