Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
431 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
ARTHUR...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT
LATER TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS 415 PM EDT THURSDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM.

HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS
TONIGHT..WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT.THE 12Z NAM IS CLOSEST TO THE OFCL NHC TRACK
THROUGH ABOUT 24 HRS...CLOSER TO THE 12Z UKMET. CONSULT THE
LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING THE
TRACK OF ARTHUR.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TONIGHT...WHILE
HURRICANE ARTHUR STRENGTHENS AND MOVES UP THE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST.

SURFFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS SLOWLY
MOVING EAST ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND WAITING FOR
ARTHUR TO PASS BY BEFORE IT PUSHES INTO THE ATLNATIC OCEAN.
THIS SLOWING OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS
WILL TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT
HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT...PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES...FAVORING HIGHER RAIN EFFICIENCY...RAIN RATES OF 2 TO 4
INCHES PER HOUR. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA IS PRETTY HIGH...NEEDING 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR TO CAUSE
ANY MAJOR ISSUES.

THE ENVIRONMENT OF INSTABILITY AND CAPE SUPPORTS WIND THREAT WITH
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. SHAPED THE POPS FOR THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT TOWARDS A BLEND OF HIRESW-ARW...NAM AND RNK WRFARW WITH
FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST. ADD ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY
RAIN IN FLOOD WATCH AREAS AND WINDS AND HAIL WHERE SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFFECT. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE
UPPER 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
AS ARTHUR MAKES A TURN OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY. TAPER POPS OFF QUICKLY
FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A NICE JULY 4TH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
VARY FROM THE LOWER 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO MID 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND BUILD OVER THE
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. THE CENTER WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL A CHANGE TO DRIER AND
COOLER CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST ON SATURDAY BEFORE AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE A BIT FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE AREA AND WITH MINOR FLUCTUATIONS NORTH AND SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW
AROUND THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH WILL PERIODICALLY RIDE ALONG THIS
FRONT AND HELP INCREASE THE DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE RESULT WILL BE AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL FOR THE
HIGHS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ032>035-043>046.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ014-016-
     017-022>024.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
432 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

VAZ018>020-058-059-042045-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
432 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>013-015-WVZ042>045-042045-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-GRAYSON-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
432 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ014-016-017-042045-
MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-
432 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ022>024-042045-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
432 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ032>035-043>046-042045-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-
432 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ047-042045-
BUCKINGHAM-
432 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
401 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

VAZ059-032100-
CHARLOTTE VA-
401 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  CHARLOTTE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 500 PM EDT

* AT 401 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WYLLIESBURG...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 25
  MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY
  RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND
  QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  KEYSVILLE...
  CHARLOTTE COURT HOUSE...
  REDOAK...
  WYLLIESBURG...
  AND ABILENE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3689 7849 3674 7862 3675 7867 3685 7867
      3686 7869 3721 7875 3721 7869 3720 7868
      3719 7864 3716 7862 3714 7859 3715 7855
      3709 7848 3708 7845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 183DEG 20KT 3682 7856

RS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
410 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

VAZ032-043-032115-
HENRY VA-PATRICK VA-
410 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  WESTERN HENRY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN PATRICK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 410 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SANVILLE...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 10
  MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SPENCER...
  PENNS STORE...
  SANVILLE...
  CRITZ...
  AND CHARITY.

LAT...LON 3686 8025 3683 8007 3682 8007 3680 8003
      3679 8003 3680 8001 3682 8000 3682 7999
      3660 7997 3659 8019
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 177DEG 10KT 3667 8009

RS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
412 PM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E BIG ISLAND          37.54N 79.29W
07/03/2014                   AMHERST            VA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON RT130

&&

JVC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
419 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

VAZ020-032045-
BATH VA-
419 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  CENTRAL BATH COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 445 PM EDT

* AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WARM SPRINGS...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
  AT 15 MPH.

* WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. VERY HEAVY
  RAIN IS FALLING...AND WILL CAUSE WATER TO POND ON ROADWAYS AND
  QUICKLY FILL ROADSIDE DITCHES AND SMALL STREAMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WARM SPRINGS...
  MOUNTAIN GROVE...
  AND BURNSVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE WATER TO FLOW OVER THE ROADWAY. DO
NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE WHERE THE ROAD HAS BECOME FLOODED.

&&

LAT...LON 3820 7957 3817 7951 3815 7953 3815 7951
      3817 7949 3816 7944 3815 7945 3810 7949
      3798 7980 3798 7981 3811 7990 3822 7971
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 235DEG 19KT 3808 7977

RS

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