Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
133 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS THIS FRONT CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON IT
WILL INTERACT WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE
ARTHUR...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT
TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST FRIDAY AS THE HURRICANE MOVES NORTHEAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS 1259 PM EDT THURSDAY...
UPDATED ISC GRIDS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 389 UNTIL
9 PM EDT. CONVECTION FORMING ALONG BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IN THE
UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON. MORE ADJUSTMENTS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

AS OF 1022 AM EDT MONDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

WEATHER BRIEFING POSTED ON YOUTUBE PAGE AND SOCIAL MEDIA FOR
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN.

HURRICANE ARTHUR WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS
TONIGHT..WELL EAST OF THE DELMARVA FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND EAST OF
CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT. CONSULT THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING THE TRACK OF ARTHUR.

RER OUT FOR RECORDS AT LEWISBURG AND BLUEFIELD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF IS TRAVELING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY WHILE HURRICANE ARTHUR STRENGTHENS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF
EXTENDS NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY STALLING DUE TO ARTHUR. THIS SLOWING OF
THE FRONT SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL TRAIN OVER
THE SAME AREA LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT HEAVY RAINFALL.
IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT...PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES...FAVORING
HIGHER RAIN EFFICIENCY...RAIN RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS PRETTY
HIGH...NEEDING 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR
ISSUES.

THIS MORNING RNK 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PWATS HAVE CLIMB TO 1.25
INCH WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODIFIED SOUNDING SUPPORTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON SUPPORTS WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
SHAPED THE POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS
HIRESW-ARW AND RNK WRFARW WITH FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO THE EAST.
ADD ENHANCED WORDING OF HEAVY RAIN IN FLOOD WATCH AREAS.
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR LATE MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD WITH CURRENT HIGHS ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE MAY
NEED TO RAISE IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MORE CHANGES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

AS OF 530 AM EDT MONDAY...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WHILE HURRICANE ARTHUR STRENGTHENS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST. SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDS
NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS.

THE SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY STALLING FOR A 6-12 HOUR PERIOD DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE FROM HURRICANE ARTHUR. THIS SLOWING OF THE FRONT
SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR REPEAT HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT...PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8 INCHES...FAVORING
HIGHER RAIN EFFICIENCY...RAIN RATES OF 2 TO 4 INCHES PER HOUR.

FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS PRETTY
HIGH...NEEDING 2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN AN HOUR TO CAUSE ANY MAJOR
ISSUES. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WHETHER THESE THRESHOLDS
WILL BE BREACHED...PREFER TO RAISE AWARENESS BY ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH...ESP SINCE THIS IS A HOLIDAY WEEK AND THERE ARE LOTS
OF FOLKS CAMPING/BOATING THAT NEED TO BE WATCHING THE STREAMS AND
CREEKS A BIT CLOSER. BY NOT HAVING THE WATCH...FOLKS MAY LET THEIR
GUARD DOWN...AND EVEN A MODEST RISE OF THE STREAM LEVELS COULD PUT
FOLKS IN DANGER IF THEY ARE NOT PREPARED FOR IT. FOR NOW...HAVE
FOCUSED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ON AN AREA WHERE WE HAVE AT LEAST
SOME CONFIDENCE THAT ISOLATED FLOODING MAY OCCUR AND WHERE RAIN
RATES COULD REACH 3 INCHES/HR.

AS FOR ANY SORT OF DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE HURRICANE...NONE
EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER KEEPS ARTHUR WELL EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT TO THE OUTERBANKS OF
NC. ONCE THE HURRICANE GAINS ENOUGH LATITUDE...LATE TONIGHT...THE
SURFACE FRONT OVER OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
EAST...MUCH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING THE FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK
FRIDAY.

WENT BELOW GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY DUE TO DEEPER MOISTURE
AND CLOUD COVER...HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 500 AM EDT THURSDAY...

LOOKING TO START FRIDAY OFF WITH ARTHUR AS A HURRICANE PASSING
NORTHEAST OFF THE OUTER BANKS. MAY SEE SOME RAIN RADIATING FROM THE
STORM PUSH OVER THE PIEDMONT...HOWEVER THE NORTH NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
WILL BE DRAWING DRIER AIR INTO REGION...AND EXPECT RAIN TO BE SPOTTY
AND MOVING FAST ENOUGH NOT TO CAUSE ANY PROBLEMS. ANY RAIN WILL EXIT
THE AREA DURING LATE MORNING AS THE STORM CONTINUES NORTHEAST...WITH
CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER. THE 5MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA
BETWEEN ARTHUR TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL SUPPORT 10 TO 15 MPH WINDS...WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 MPH
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELAX DURING THE EVENING AS
ARTHUR MOVES AWAY. MOST NOTICEABLE WILL BE THE COOLER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
70S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE LOW/MID 80S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. EXPECT COOLER
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS...
POSSIBLY UPPER 40S IN A FEW OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO GRADUALLY SWING SOUTHERLY TO
RETURN ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS WE REACH MAXIMUM HEATING...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM AGAIN GOING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH SUNDAY TEMPERATURES BECOMING VERY CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED SURFACE
INSTABILITY THANKS TO INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS.

THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL TREND A LITTLE WARMER THAN
NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT THURSDAY...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MVFR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WITH RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS FRIDAY.

MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ032>035-043>046.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ014-016-
     017-022>024.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ047.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...KK/PM
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...KK/PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
109 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

VAZ018>020-058-059-041715-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
109 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>013-015-WVZ042>045-041715-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-GRAYSON-MERCER-
SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
109 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ014-016-017-041715-
MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-
109 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ022>024-041715-
ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
109 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ032>035-043>046-041715-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-
109 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

VAZ047-041715-
BUCKINGHAM-
109 PM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 389 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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