Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Henry County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1003 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY INTERACTING WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE HURRICANE ARTHUR OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST. DRIER AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. CLUSTER OF STORMS
MOVING EAST OF LYNCHBURG. THESE STORMS WILL BE EAST OF BUCKINGHAM
COUNTY BY MIDNIGHT. HELD ON TO POPS ACROSS SOUTHSIDE WITH
BOUNDARIES AND INSTABILITIES LINGERING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTH...AS ENERGY WITH A SURFACE
REFLECTION TRACKS TO THE VIRGINIA COAST.

AS OF 340 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
THE GREATEST THREAT IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROF FOR JULY IS TRAVELING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM
THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL
CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST.
SHAPED TONIGHT POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE HIRESW-ARW...RNK WRF ARW
AND NAM.

ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS BOTH DISCRETE AND MULTICELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
BETTER ORGANIZATION THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO INTO VA/MD/DE/PA/NJ
WHERE THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET AND STRONGER MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL EXIST. FORECAST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 DEG C AND
CAPES OVER 3000+ WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. MPD 172 AND DAY1 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. WITH RELATIVELY HIGH FFG...CELL MERGERS AND
TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATE WILL BE NEED
FOR FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS.

A MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT STILL WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL REMAIN WARM WITH READINGS FROM THE LOWER
60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.

THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY...INTERACTING
WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF ARTHUR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE STRENGTHENING INTO A
HURRICANE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST....BEFORE IT THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

PWATS INCREASE FROM AROUND ONE INCH THIS MORNING TO JUST UNDER TWO
INCHES IN THE PIEDMONT THURSDAY...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT
CERTAINLY NOT EXTREME. WITH THIS INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE...EVEN
THOUGH ARTHUR NOT TRACKING VERY NEAR THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST
AREA...THERE HAS BEEN SOME DISCUSSION OF THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE FRONTAL FORCING IS VERY WEAK OVER OUR AREA COMPARED TO
CLASSIC CASES OF PREFRONTAL HEAVY RAIN EVENTS STUDIED...AND OVERALL
THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT PRE...SO AT THIS POINT NO
EXTREME RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR OUR AREA.

MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR ANY ENHANCED RAINFALL WOULD BE ALONG AND
EAST OF BLUE RIDGE. INCREASED QPF AND PLAYED IT CLOSER TO HPCQPF AND
AFTER DISCUSSION WITH AKQ DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THURSDAY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND MONITOR FOR TRAINING OF
ECHOES WITH HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FOR ANY PLACEMENT OF FLOOD WATCH.

UNLESS THE FRONT REALLY SLOWS DOWN...FAR SW VA...NW NC...AND SE WV
MAY ONLY SEE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS AND ISOLD THUNDER THROUGH MIDDAY
BEFORE MAIN THREAT FOR RAIN HEADS EAST IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PLAYED IT COOLER FOR THURSDAY COMPARED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT
PASSING THROUGH AND INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER.
LEANED HIGH THURSDAY TOWARDS THE ADJMETBC WITH READINGS THE MID 70S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...PRECIPITATION WILL
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST. SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA MAY BE LIFTED UPSLOPE ALONG A
20 TO 25 KT NORTHWEST 850 MB WIND AND YIELD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONCE PRECIPITATION STOPS
IN A GIVEN AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN.

DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES OVER
THE REGION THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY AND NIGHT. EXPECT NO
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH
LIMITED CLOUD COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS
STATES. NO PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT HUMIDITY WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHWEST AND START TO ADVECT HIGHER DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE REGION.

MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. ANTICIPATE
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED SURFACE
INSTABILITY THANKS TO INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS.

THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL START AROUND NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...BUT TREND A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 850 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT...CROSSING THE REGION
TOMORROW MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
REINFORCE...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES...LEADING TO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORM
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z...BUT DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED IFR WITH THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH 02Z. THESE STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
AND WILL BE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THEREFORE
WE MAINLY HAVE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT MOST TAF SITES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME FOG COULD DEVELOPED AT THE USUAL
LOCATIONS OF BCB...LWB AND BLF...WHERE PRECIPITATION FROM TODAYS
STORMS WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DENSE FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER BCB...LWB...AND BLF WILL AT LEAST APPROACH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE ADVANCING FRONT AND TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFIC
LOCATION AND AMOUNTS ARE LOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK
OF ARTHUR.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE PERIOD.
HIGH TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON WINDS

EXTENDED AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS DRIER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. THERE MAY BE SOME
RIVER VALLEY FOG SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KK/PM
NEAR TERM...KK/RCS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JC/KK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
837 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-WVZ042>045-040045-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
837 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WHILE THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME WOULD BE MIDDAY...THESE COULD LINGER LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059-040045-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-
HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
837 PM EDT WED JUL 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1000 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE WELL
NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL PRODUCE ESPECIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THE
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING HOW WIDESPREAD THIS HEAVY RAIN THREAT
MAY BE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

RCS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1216 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

VAZ045-046-030515-
APPOMATTOX VA-CAMPBELL VA-
1216 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  APPOMATTOX COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  EASTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 115 AM EDT

* AT 1215 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SPRING MILLS...MOVING TO THE
  NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CONCORD...
  APPOMATTOX...
  RUSTBURG...
  OAKVILLE...
  AND SPOUT SPRING.

LAT...LON 3709 7904 3722 7919 3754 7880 3745 7870
      3743 7868 3742 7864 3741 7863 3739 7863
      3739 7861 3738 7860 3735 7859
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 232DEG 22KT 3724 7899

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1230 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

VAZ033-034-044-045-030530-
FRANKLIN VA-BEDFORD VA-CAMPBELL VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
1230 AM EDT THU JUL 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN BEDFORD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN CAMPBELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
  NORTHERN PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 130 AM EDT

* AT 1230 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AJAX...MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST
  AT 25 MPH.

* PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
  STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EVINGTON...
  HURT...
  GRETNA...
  PENHOOK...
  AND ALTAVISTA.

LAT...LON 3682 7961 3693 7977 3728 7926 3709 7904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0426Z 232DEG 22KT 3698 7955

16

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