Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
220 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014

...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE SE
MTS AND PLAINS...HEAVY SNOW FOR THE HIGHER PEAKS ABOVE 11KFT...

WIDESPREAD MODT TO LOCALLY HVY RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. ONGOING HEADLINES LOOK ON TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LOOKS LIKE TWO AREAS OF ENHANCED RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH VORT LOBES IN THE MAIN LOW WHICH IS MOVING NEWD
THROUGH THE 4 CORNERS RIGHT NOW. FIRST AREA HAS PERSISTED IN AN
W-E ORIENTED BAND ACROSS EL PASO COUNTY AND ALONG THE PALMER DVD EWD
PAST KLIC AND ON THROUGH KS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME MINOR URBAN
FLOODING IN AND AROUND KCOS...AND CONTINUED CONCERNS FOR THE AREA
BURN SCARS. THIS AREA SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD WIND DOWN AFTER 00Z. ANOTHER AREA ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVING OUT OF NRN NM WILL FILL IN OVER THE SERN PLAINS
ALONG AND S OF HGWY 50...AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z AND LIKELY CONTINUE AS SHOWERS THROUGH FRI MORNING.
CONSIDERED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE AREA...BUT RATES DO NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
FOR THE SERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SIGNS OF ANY ENHANCED PRECIP/CONVECTION.

IN THE MTS...SNOW LEVELS HAVE REMAIN AROUND 11K FEET MOST PLACES.
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS OVER THE PASSES AND AS OF 20Z KMYP WAS SHOWING SNOW
COVERED ROADS. PIKES PEAK LIKELY WILL END UP WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT
SNOW TOTALS...MAYBE OVER A FOOT BEFORE THINGS WIND DOWN ON FRIDAY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRI MORNING...POSSIBLY AS LOW
AS 8K FEET...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY THEN. NO
CHANGES TO ONGOING HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WIND DOWN IN THE
MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW BREAKS POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z. BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SUN...AND MTS COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE REMAINS AND INSTABILITY INCREASES.
COULD SEE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SN ACCUMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR
MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 30S-40S FOR THE MTS  ROSE

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014

...COLDER STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER EASTERN
COLORADO FRIDAY EVENING WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FILLING IN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SATURDAY.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS DISSIPATING FRIDAY EVENING...WITH JUST ISOLATED
ACTIVITY OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  OVER THE
PLAINS...SHOWERS FROM THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM WILL COME TO AN
END...FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL WITH MID
TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.  A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  HIGHS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH 60S TO LOWER
70S FOR THE PLAINS.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
THIS CYCLE WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A
STRONGER SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE MAIN FOCUS WITH THE TROUGH
BASE IS FURTHER SOUTH IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.  THE NAM IS THE
OUTLIER WITH A MORE EASTERLY TRACK OF THE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED WITH THE
MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF.  EXPECT RAIN AND SNOW TO BEGIN SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  OVER THE PLAINS...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  STRONG NORTH WINDS WITH
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER BEHIND THE FRONT.  TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB QUICKLY
INTO THE 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND FALL INTO THE MID 40S HEADING
INTO SUNDAY EVENING.  MODELS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  GIVEN THE NORTHERLY WIND DIRECTION...THE
MAIN FOCUS WILL LIKELY BE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA REGIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A QUICK
WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR THE PLAINS AS THE FRONT
PASSES.  MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
MANY AREAS SEEING LOWER 30S BY MONDAY MORNING.  SNOW LEVELS WILL
ALSO FALL SUNDAY EVENING...WITH LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE OR NO
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED BELOW 7 KFT.  MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.  THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN MOVING INTO COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 213 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2014

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIP
INCLUDING ISOLD TS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH 02-03Z. AFTER HEAVIER PRECIP WINDS DOWN AND
SHIFTS EWD OVER THE SE CO PLAINS...WILL STILL SEE MOIST CONDITIONS
ACROSS BOTH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE ERN PLAINS...SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE IFR-MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY SOME LOCAL
AREAS OF FG OR BR BY EARLY FRI MORNING...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE MAINLY LOW CIGS. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 18Z
AND POSSIBLY GETTING TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR COZ072-074-077>079-
081-083>088.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ073-075-080-
082.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ067-068.

&&

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...ROSE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
316 PM MDT THU OCT 09 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MANITOU SPRINGS         38.86N 104.91W
10/09/2014  M1.46 INCH       EL PASO            CO   USGS

            STORM TOTAL

&&

KAM

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