Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2014

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

Tornadic supercell moving into extreme northwest Tennessee appears
to be on the leading edge of a persistent theta-e gradient per 20z
LAPS Surface fields. The long axis of this theta-e gradient
stretches west northwest into central Carter County. Anticipate
that any cells/supercells will likely continue along this axis
through the next couple of hours. The 13km RUC shows favorable
1000-500 mb lapse rates for wind damage potential and limited hail
potential through at least 23z.

A secondary zone of theta-e convergence in the Purchase area of
West Kentucky is coincident with the second circulation, so
bouyancy is not a problem. The RUC suggests that some more stable
850-500 lapse rates may become more stable with time. This may
limit upscale growth of organized updrafts further north the
current severe thunderstorm watch #252. The RUC suggests some
slightly sharper lapse rates for isolated wind potential from
21z- 00z along and east of the Ohio and Wabash Rivers into
Southwest Indiana and West Kentucky. However, this area should
diminish quickly with sunset, but the aforementioned area along
the Southeast Missouri/Northeast Arkansas area will remain under
the gun for a few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 139 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

We have been monitoring the evolution of a squall line that
originated in south central MO early this morning in association
with an MCV/sfc low. It is currently impacting parts of southeast MO
this afternoon and will be moving into the southern IL and western
KY soon and eventually into SWIN. We had a report of an inch of rain
in 15 minutes and winds gusting to 30 mph from a spotter near
POF...otherwise the convection has remained sub severe.

Latest LAPS data indicates a weak warm frontal boundary from near
St. Louis to middle TN. Instability has been increasing throughout
the day and has allowed convection to sustain itself. In fact, new
convection appears to be forming ahead of the line in parts of
southern IL. SPC has issued an MCD for our area for a potential
watch this afternoon, giving special attention to the convection
from West Plains MO to Ft. Smith AR. Damaging winds and hail,
along with very high rainfall rates will be the main threats. An
isolated short lived tornado is also possible.

We will continue with likely PoPs this evening, but then diminish
from west to east overnight as this system pulls out of the area.
We should see much lower chances of convection on Sunday in the
wake of the aforementioned system. Much of the area may be
convection free. Whatever lull Sunday, will be short lived, as the
GFS/ECMWF bring another mid level disturbance across the area
Sunday night. Best chances will be in the southern half of the area.

Then a more significant upper level low will dig into the plains
Monday and head toward the area late Monday into Monday night.
Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good bet
starting on Monday and lasting through Tuesday...as the system
approaches and then moves across our region. Heavy rainfall looks
to be a good possibility as precipitable waters are running
1.80-1.90 inches. Severe weather is possible, especially on
Tuesday when wind fields are expected to strengthen somewhat.

No real changes in temperatures expected over the next few days.
Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 139 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

By 00Z Wednesday, the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are in good agreement that
a cut-off low will be centered over southern Missouri. The slow
progression of this low across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will
keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
Tuesday night into Wednesday. While an isolated strong storm cannot
be ruled out, the main impact during this time should be locally
heavy rain, with precipitable water values 1.50 to 1.75 inches.

As the low weakens and shifts northeast into the Great Lakes
Wednesday night, expect a temporary lull in the chance for showers
and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday. However,
another ripple of energy in the weak zonal flow pattern is forecast
to move slowly across the region Thursday night into Friday night.
As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
somewhat elevated during this time. A transition to mainly dry
weather should occur next weekend, though an isolated mainly
afternoon/evening thunderstorm certainly cannot be ruled out given
the warm and humid air mass in place across the forecast area.

Temperatures through the period will be seasonably warm. Expect lows
each morning in the mid to upper 60s. Afternoon highs will warm from
the lower 80s on Wednesday into the upper 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

Low pressure over Missouri will track north of the region through
tonight. The approach of this low and a weak attendant frontal
boundary will result in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. A few severe storms are possible later this afternoon and
early this evening. Scattered to broken cumulus will occasionally
restrict ceilings to MVFR, particularly in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Winds will swing around to the west/southwest tonight
and then north/northwest Sunday morning as dry conditions return.
Will need to monitor the potential development of low clouds and
perhaps some fog late tonight and early Sunday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Smith

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