Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
140 PM CDT Sat Jun 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 139 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

We have been monitoring the evolution of a squall line that
originated in south central MO early this morning in association
with an MCV/sfc low. It is currently impacting parts of southeast MO
this afternoon and will be moving into the southern IL and western
KY soon and eventually into SWIN. We had a report of an inch of rain
in 15 minutes and winds gusting to 30 mph from a spotter near
POF...otherwise the convection has remained sub severe.

Latest LAPS data indicates a weak warm frontal boundary from near
St. Louis to middle TN. Instability has been increasing throughout
the day and has allowed convection to sustain itself. In fact, new
convection appears to be forming ahead of the line in parts of
southern IL. SPC has issued an MCD for our area for a potential
watch this afternoon, giving special attention to the convection
from West Plains MO to Ft. Smith AR. Damaging winds and hail,
along with very high rainfall rates will be the main threats. An
isolated short lived tornado is also possible.

We will continue with likely PoPs this evening, but then diminish
from west to east overnight as this system pulls out of the area.
We should see much lower chances of convection on Sunday in the
wake of the aforementioned system. Much of the area may be
convection free. Whatever lull Sunday, will be short lived, as the
GFS/ECMWF bring another mid level disturbance across the area
Sunday night. Best chances will be in the southern half of the area.

Then a more significant upper level low will dig into the plains
Monday and head toward the area late Monday into Monday night.
Therefore, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be a good bet
starting on Monday and lasting through Tuesday...as the system
approaches and then moves across our region. Heavy rainfall looks
to be a good possibility as precipitable waters are running
1.80-1.90 inches. Severe weather is possible, especially on
Tuesday when wind fields are expected to strengthen somewhat.

No real changes in temperatures expected over the next few days.
Highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 139 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

By 00Z Wednesday, the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are in good agreement that
a cut-off low will be centered over southern Missouri. The slow
progression of this low across the Mid Mississippi River Valley will
keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
Tuesday night into Wednesday. While an isolated strong storm cannot
be ruled out, the main impact during this time should be locally
heavy rain, with precipitable water values 1.50 to 1.75 inches.

As the low weakens and shifts northeast into the Great Lakes
Wednesday night, expect a temporary lull in the chance for showers
and thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday. However,
another ripple of energy in the weak zonal flow pattern is forecast
to move slowly across the region Thursday night into Friday night.
As a result, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will be
somewhat elevated during this time. A transition to mainly dry
weather should occur next weekend, though an isolated mainly
afternoon/evening thunderstorm certainly cannot be ruled out given
the warm and humid air mass in place across the forecast area.

Temperatures through the period will be seasonably warm. Expect lows
each morning in the mid to upper 60s. Afternoon highs will warm from
the lower 80s on Wednesday into the upper 80s by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1232 CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

Low pressure over Missouri will track north of the region through
tonight. The approach of this low and a weak attendant frontal
boundary will result in scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. A few severe storms are possible later this afternoon and
early this evening. Scattered to broken cumulus will occasionally
restrict ceilings to MVFR, particularly in the vicinity of
thunderstorms. Winds will swing around to the west/southwest tonight
and then north/northwest Sunday morning as dry conditions return.
Will need to monitor the potential development of low clouds and
perhaps some fog late tonight and early Sunday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-081000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
309 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FROM
MIDDAY THROUGH LATE EVENING. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS BRIEF...SHORT LIVED TORNADOES.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF STORMS SUNDAY. FOR THE MOST PART A
LULL IS EXPECTED...BEFORE CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FEW STRONG...PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A CONCERN. THE CHANCES FOR
STORMS SHOULD DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1050 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

MOZ107-071630-
CARTER MO-
1050 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1046 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF WINONA...OR 12 MILES WEST OF
VAN BUREN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  VAN BUREN...FREMONT...HUNTER...ELLSINORE AND FREEMONT.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1148 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

MOZ107-071730-
CARTER MO-
1148 AM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CARTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1144 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF VAN BUREN...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  HUNTER...ELLSINORE AND GRANDIN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
218 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

MOZ110-112-114-072000-
MISSISSIPPI MO-NEW MADRID MO-STODDARD MO-
218 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STODDARD...NEW
MADRID AND MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI UNTIL 300 PM
CDT...

AT 212 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARMA...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF LILBOURN...
MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

LOCATIONS THAT MAY BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LILBOURN...NEW MADRID...HUNTER-DAWSON STATE HISTORIC SITE...EAST
  PRAIRIE...BIG OAK TREE STATE PARK...TOWOSAHGY STATE HISTORIC
  SITE...CANALOU...MATTHEWS...HOWARDVILLE...FARRENBURG...DORENA...
  CATRON AND NORTH LILBOURN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.