Special Weather Statement, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FORMED AS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND A COUPLE OF
STORMS BRIEFLY INTENSIFIED NEAR OAK RIDGE TN AND ALSO OVER CHEROKEE
COUNTY NC WITH SMALL HAIL AT MARBLE NC AROUND 215 PM.

THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SMOKY MTN STORMS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER...CUMBERLAND PLATEAU STORMS
HAD DRIFTED EAST PUSHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SMOKY MTN
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FEW MORE HOURS OF HEAT AND THESE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...I OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING
HOURS OVER ALL BUT THE SRN VALLEY COUNTIES OF E TN.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE OVERALL FOR TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
LATE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER OVER SW VA AND EXTREME NRN PARTS OF EAST TN...AS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH A BIT CLOSER.

MOS MINS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR TONIGHT. I DID NUDGE THURSDAY MAX
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO...ESPECIALLY OVER SW VA AND
NE TN WHERE MORE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUMMER REGIME SEEMS
TO BE IN PLACE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
TRANSITION FARTHER WEST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION/OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PERHAPS ACROSS SW VA. TOUGH TO FORECAST THE MOVEMENT/LOCATION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA AND NE TN. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION SINCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT WELL HANDLED
BY THE MODELS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BY
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOK
FOR SOME BRIEF RELIEF OVER THE WEEKEND IF STORMS MATERIALIZE SINCE
THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  93  68  93 /  10  20  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  91  69  91 /  20  20  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  92  68  92 /  20  20  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  89  62  88 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG/AC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-191930-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND
NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE. A STRAY STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD ALSO
BRIEFLY INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PEA TO DIME
SIZED HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
STORMS WILL BE DISORGANIZED...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
228 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCZ060-061-181915-
CLAY-CHEROKEE-
228 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLAY AND EASTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

AT 226 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR MURPHY. THE
STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDREWS...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...TOPTON...SHOOTING CREEK...
BRASSTOWN...MARBLE AND TUSQUITEE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3500 8401 3500 8413 3528 8404 3527 8401
      3524 8401 3522 8397 3525 8385 3524 8375
      3526 8371 3525 8370 3515 8374 3515 8365
      3500 8352 3499 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 358DEG 2KT 3513 8397

TG

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