Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FORMED AS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND A COUPLE OF
STORMS BRIEFLY INTENSIFIED NEAR OAK RIDGE TN AND ALSO OVER CHEROKEE
COUNTY NC WITH SMALL HAIL AT MARBLE NC AROUND 215 PM.

THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SMOKY MTN STORMS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER...CUMBERLAND PLATEAU STORMS
HAD DRIFTED EAST PUSHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SMOKY MTN
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FEW MORE HOURS OF HEAT AND THESE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...I OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING
HOURS OVER ALL BUT THE SRN VALLEY COUNTIES OF E TN.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE OVERALL FOR TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
LATE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER OVER SW VA AND EXTREME NRN PARTS OF EAST TN...AS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH A BIT CLOSER.

MOS MINS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR TONIGHT. I DID NUDGE THURSDAY MAX
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO...ESPECIALLY OVER SW VA AND
NE TN WHERE MORE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUMMER REGIME SEEMS
TO BE IN PLACE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
TRANSITION FARTHER WEST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION/OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PERHAPS ACROSS SW VA. TOUGH TO FORECAST THE MOVEMENT/LOCATION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA AND NE TN. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION SINCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT WELL HANDLED
BY THE MODELS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BY
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOK
FOR SOME BRIEF RELIEF OVER THE WEEKEND IF STORMS MATERIALIZE SINCE
THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  93  68  93 /  10  20  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  91  69  91 /  20  20  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  92  68  92 /  20  20  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  89  62  88 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG/AC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-191930-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND
NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE. A STRAY STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD ALSO
BRIEFLY INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PEA TO DIME
SIZED HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
STORMS WILL BE DISORGANIZED...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
502 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NNW SODDY-DAISY       35.29N 85.19W
06/18/2014                   HAMILTON           TN   911 CALL CENTER

            A FEW TREES DOWN NEAR MOBRAY PIKE.

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
502 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

TNZ039-040-042-070-182130-
NORTHWEST COCKE-JEFFERSON-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST GREENE-
502 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST COCKE...JEFFERSON...
HAMBLEN...NORTHWEST GREENE...

AT 502 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR PARROTTSVILLE...OR 9
MILES NORTH OF NEWPORT...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MORRISTOWN...WHITE PINE...BANEBERRY...PARROTTSVILLE...MOSHEIM...CANEY
BRANCH...LOWLAND...BYBEE AND MOHAWK.

LAT...LON 3599 8332 3619 8327 3626 8295 3602 8293
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 269DEG 16KT 3609 8313

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
505 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

TNZ085-100-182145-
BRADLEY-MCMINN-
505 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BRADLEY...MCMINN...

AT 504 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER CHARLESTON...OR 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CLEVELAND...CHARLESTON...CALHOUN...TASSO...DENTVILLE...HILLSVIEW AND
RICEVILLE.

LAT...LON 3530 8490 3548 8473 3530 8455 3526 8462
      3527 8467 3524 8469 3523 8471 3522 8470
      3517 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 234DEG 6KT 3529 8479

MJB

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