Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
304 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
FORMED AS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...AND A COUPLE OF
STORMS BRIEFLY INTENSIFIED NEAR OAK RIDGE TN AND ALSO OVER CHEROKEE
COUNTY NC WITH SMALL HAIL AT MARBLE NC AROUND 215 PM.

THE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SMOKY MTN STORMS WILL BE MOVING
SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER...CUMBERLAND PLATEAU STORMS
HAD DRIFTED EAST PUSHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TOWARD THE SMOKY MTN
CONVECTION. GIVEN THE FEW MORE HOURS OF HEAT AND THESE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...I OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING
HOURS OVER ALL BUT THE SRN VALLEY COUNTIES OF E TN.

OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES MADE OVERALL FOR TONIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
LATE. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER OVER SW VA AND EXTREME NRN PARTS OF EAST TN...AS THE OHIO
RIVER VALLY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH A BIT CLOSER.

MOS MINS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR TONIGHT. I DID NUDGE THURSDAY MAX
TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO...ESPECIALLY OVER SW VA AND
NE TN WHERE MORE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS IS LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SUMMER REGIME SEEMS
TO BE IN PLACE. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL
TRANSITION FARTHER WEST AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION/OHIO VALLEY. LOOK FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS PERHAPS ACROSS SW VA. TOUGH TO FORECAST THE MOVEMENT/LOCATION
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA AND NE TN. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE EXACT LOCATION SINCE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOT WELL HANDLED
BY THE MODELS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT BY
THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOOK
FOR SOME BRIEF RELIEF OVER THE WEEKEND IF STORMS MATERIALIZE SINCE
THICKER CLOUD COVER SHOULD INHIBIT TOO MUCH WARMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             70  93  68  93 /  10  20  10  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  68  91  69  91 /  20  20  20  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       68  92  68  92 /  20  20  20  30
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              63  89  62  88 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG/AC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-191930-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
330 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND
NORTH CAROLINA STATE LINE. A STRAY STRONG STORM OR TWO COULD ALSO
BRIEFLY INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. PEA TO DIME
SIZED HAIL COULD ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.
STORMS WILL BE DISORGANIZED...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
228 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

NCZ060-061-181915-
CLAY-CHEROKEE-
228 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CLAY AND EASTERN
CHEROKEE COUNTIES...

AT 226 PM EDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS NEAR MURPHY. THE
STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY EAST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ANDREWS...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...TOPTON...SHOOTING CREEK...
BRASSTOWN...MARBLE AND TUSQUITEE.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3500 8401 3500 8413 3528 8404 3527 8401
      3524 8401 3522 8397 3525 8385 3524 8375
      3526 8371 3525 8370 3515 8374 3515 8365
      3500 8352 3499 8400
TIME...MOT...LOC 1826Z 358DEG 2KT 3513 8397

TG

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
415 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

TNZ100-101-182100-
WEST POLK-BRADLEY-
415 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST POLK...BRADLEY...

AT 414 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR WILDWOOD LAKE...OR 10
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BENTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BENTON...WILDWOOD LAKE...PARKSVILLE...HIWASSEE OCOEE S.P....
RELIANCE...GAP SPRINGS...ARCHVILLE AND CONASAUGA.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3506 8488 3526 8470 3524 8469 3527 8467
      3527 8459 3516 8445 3504 8456 3499 8463
      3499 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 225DEG 12KT 3505 8475

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
423 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

TNZ099-182100-
HAMILTON-
423 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HAMILTON...

AT 422 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SODDY-DAISY...OR 13
MILES EAST OF DUNLAP...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND HALF INCH HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SODDY-DAISY...SALE CREEK...SHADY GROVE...FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN...
BIRCHWOOD AND MOWBRAY MOUNTAIN.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3521 8512 3530 8526 3544 8518 3546 8513
      3545 8511 3543 8510 3544 8507 3541 8502
      3538 8503 3538 8500 3536 8498 3534 8497
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 216DEG 15KT 3534 8515

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
452 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

TNZ083-084-182115-
RHEA-MEIGS-
452 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2014

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT RHEA...MEIGS...

AT 452 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR SPRING CITY...OR 10
MILES NORTH OF DAYTON...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAYTON...DECATUR...SPRING CITY...PEAKLAND...OLD WASHINGTON...
GRANDVIEW...PINEY FALLS S.P....EVENSVILLE AND STINGING FORK FALLS
S.P..

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 3552 8498 3564 8503 3576 8492 3581 8482
      3556 8470
TIME...MOT...LOC 2052Z 249DEG 7KT 3564 8494

MJB