Severe Thunderstorm Warning 274, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
256 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT
DUE TO EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
TO MID 90S. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT WAS IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI HAS MOVED EAST OR DISSIPATED WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
NOW MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT BEFORE
STALLING OUT. AS A RESULT MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. ON MONDAY THE FRONT WILL START MOVING NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BUT WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR MORE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WHICH MAY TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
ON TUESDAY...AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH AWAY
FROM THE REGION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME RATHER WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. THE WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY LEAVING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE
REGION THAT THE THREAT OF RAIN SHOULD END. ON THURSDAY...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS A
RESULT...DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RATHER HOT DURING THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. ON SUNDAY...A
NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS SO
SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (17/18Z-18/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS
LOWERING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...THEN DEVELOPING AGAIN AROUND KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP AFTER
18/16Z. PUT IN A TEMP GROUP FOR -SHRA AT KTUP UNTIL 17/19Z. FOR NOW
CONTINUED WITH MENTION OF VCTS AT THE TAF SITES SINCE CAN NOT
DEFINE TIMING WELL ENOUGH ATTM FOR A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA. WILL AMEND
AS NECESSARY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SW-W 10-12 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR
18 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 5-7 KTS. WINDS MONDAY MORNING SW-W 8-10
KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-181145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
443 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH TODAY. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH TODAY.

JLH