Flash Flood Warning 118, NWS Memphis, TN

394 
WGUS74 KMEG 171722
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

MSC003-117-139-171732-
/O.CAN.KMEG.FF.W.0118.000000T0000Z-140817T1900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
TIPPAH MS-PRENTISS MS-ALCORN MS-
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTHERN ALCORN...
PRENTISS AND SOUTHEASTERN TIPPAH COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

.STAY TUNED TO THIS BROADCAST FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND INFORMATION.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY...CALL 1 800 4 3 2 0 8 7 5.

LAT...LON 3458 8874 3459 8874 3460 8891 3481 8891
      3490 8837 3490 8836 3476 8837 3474 8834
      3460 8833 3455 8834

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1015 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE LINE HAS BEEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS OVER 4
INCHES OF RAIN THAT HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF COAHOMA AND
QUITMAN COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THIS
LINE MOVES SLOWLY EAST. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVER AREA IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THIS LINE AND HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME BEHIND
THE LINE.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR ST. LOUIS
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. ENHANCED MID LEVEL FORCING COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
GREATEST STORM POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE
IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE GREATEST FORCING ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
APPEAR TO REMAIN RATHER POOR...BUT AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE PRIMARY
THREATS FROM ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORM WOULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS
PWAT VALUES EXCEED 2 INCHES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.
PLAN TO CONTINUE THE MENTION IN THE LATEST HWO. THE BEST STORM
CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING WITH POPS TRAILING OFF TO THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD DOWN
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FURTHER SOUTH...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH ON MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
LEAD TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE GREATEST CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD AS COMPARED TO TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE
RULED OUT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD HELP
TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN AREAS
AGAIN BY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINS
WEAKER.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY MID WEEK AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TO
SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND RESULT IN INCREASINGLY DRY AND HOT WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
EAST AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO EASTERN AREAS BY NEXT WEEKEND. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY
ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN VCSH AT MKL THIS MORNING AND VCTS AT ALL
SITES AFTER 17/17Z. CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING/COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION TEMPOS IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SSW/SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS
TODAY AND DIMINISH TO 4-6 KTS AFTER 18/01Z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-181145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
443 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH TODAY. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH TODAY.

JLH