Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

.UPDATE...UPDATED FOR TOR WATCH 223

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONFIRMED TO HAVE PRODUCES TORNADOES
TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...BUT STORMS MAY CONTINUE
FOR QUITE A WHILE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/

MIDAFTERNOON REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED AN EAST/WEST LINEAR CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF ST LOUIS...MOVING EAST. NEARER TO THE
MIDSOUTH... A SMALLER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FORMED OVER THE OZARK
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN MO EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
DISSIPATED AS THE MOVED EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

MIDAFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD WAS RATHER FLAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...
OVERSPREAD BY A 12C 700MB THERMAL RIDGE AND SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS.
GFS PROJECTS HEIGHT FALLS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK DOWN THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE TONIGHT...ALLOWING ELEVATED STORMS TO PERSIST INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS THEY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850/500MB
THICKNESS GRADIENT. CONCURRENTLY...ANOTHER MCS WILL LIKELY TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE RESULTANT
MCV/REMNANT CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST AR DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE MIDSOUTH REMAIN
UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. MODEL
DETAILS BECOME DIFFICULT TO RELY ON AFTER ABOUT DAY 2...DUE THE
DIFFICULTY IN MODELING CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS THAT FORM EFFECTIVE
MESOSCALE FRONTS. THAT SAID...BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST AR...NORTHWEST TN...INTO THE TN
RIVER VALLEY.

MOS GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS WERE UNDERCUT...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE MOST PROMINENT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

LINE OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WESTERN
KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL MOVE INTO KJBR AND KMKL
BETWEEN 5-10Z. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS.
LINGERING SHRAS WITH MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 13-14Z.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR OTHER TAF SITES. CAN/T RULE
OUT A FEW SHRAS APPROACHING KMEM BETWEEN 9-13Z. SCT TSRAS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA BETWEEN 16-20Z. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS
WORDING FOR NOW. S WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. NOT VERY
CONFIDENT ON WIND DIRECTION OR SPEED AFTER 12Z DUE TO CONVECTION
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
739 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-060245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
739 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM PARAGOULD ARKANSAS TO PARSONS TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID-SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.