Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1210 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/

UPDATE...UPDATED FOR TOR WATCH 223

DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
ONGOING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONFIRMED TO HAVE PRODUCES TORNADOES
TO OUR NORTH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AFTER SUNSET...CHANCES WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES...BUT STORMS MAY CONTINUE
FOR QUITE A WHILE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/

MIDAFTERNOON REGIONAL RADAR SHOWED AN EAST/WEST LINEAR CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF ST LOUIS...MOVING EAST. NEARER TO THE
MIDSOUTH... A SMALLER CONVECTIVE CLUSTER FORMED OVER THE OZARK
PLATEAU OF SOUTHERN MO EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS
DISSIPATED AS THE MOVED EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.

MIDAFTERNOON CUMULUS FIELD WAS RATHER FLAT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...
OVERSPREAD BY A 12C 700MB THERMAL RIDGE AND SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS.
GFS PROJECTS HEIGHT FALLS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK DOWN THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE TONIGHT...ALLOWING ELEVATED STORMS TO PERSIST INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS THEY DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ALONG THE 850/500MB
THICKNESS GRADIENT. CONCURRENTLY...ANOTHER MCS WILL LIKELY TAKE
SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE RESULTANT
MCV/REMNANT CONVECTION REDEVELOPING OVER NORTHEAST AR DURING THE
HEAT OF THE DAY.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE MIDSOUTH REMAIN
UNDER THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. MODEL
DETAILS BECOME DIFFICULT TO RELY ON AFTER ABOUT DAY 2...DUE THE
DIFFICULTY IN MODELING CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS THAT FORM EFFECTIVE
MESOSCALE FRONTS. THAT SAID...BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL LIKELY EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST AR...NORTHWEST TN...INTO THE TN
RIVER VALLEY.

MOS GUIDANCE MAX TEMPS WERE UNDERCUT...PARTICULARLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...WHERE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BE MOST PROMINENT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

CONVECTION WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARDS KJBR AND KMKL OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPO GROUP FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH TSRAS. BY 10-11Z...EXPECT LINGERING SHRAS AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE AT KJBR AND KMKL THROUGH 14Z.
THEREAFTER...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REST OF FORECAST AS LATEST HRRR
SHOWS A DYING MCS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER 15Z. IF MCS WOULD
MOVE IN THEN SHRAS COULD KEEP CIGS AND/OR VSBYS MVFR INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE THOUGHT OF SCT TSRAS FROM
DAYTIME HEATING DEVELOPING BETWEEN 17-20Z. CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 1Z. LIGHT S WINDS EXPECTED OVER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THEREAFTER...LOW CONFIDENCE ON DIRECTION AS CONVECTION WILL PLAY
HAVOC WITH DIRECTION/SPEED.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
739 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-060245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
739 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE
FROM PARAGOULD ARKANSAS TO PARSONS TENNESSEE TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WITH A
SECONDARY THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID-SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT.