Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF
THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH 5PM THIS AFTERNOON. BOW ECHO/SQUALL LINE
MOVING AT 60 MPH WILL MOVE INTO RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BETWEEN 1-2PM...THE JONESBORO AREA AROUND
2PM...THE MEMPHIS METRO AND JACKSON AREA BETWEEN 3-4PM...AND
FINALLY IN THE TUPELO AND CORINTH AREA BETWEEN 4-5PM. DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...WITH SECONDARY
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR ISSUANCE OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE HAS PRODUCED
TWO TO A LITTLE OVER THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL ACCORDING TO
MORNING COOP REPORTS. ADDITIONAL COMPLEX IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD TOGETHER AND PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FROM MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THIS LINE...TO INCLUDE EXPECTED
DISTURBANCES/TRAINING STORMS LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY COULD
EASILY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE OVER THE
NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE MIDSOUTH PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A FFA.

A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CWA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
BOW ECHO IN SW MISSOURI/NW ARKANSAS TODAY. THIS LINE WHICH IS
CURRENTLY BEING WARNED WILL HOLD TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES THE
OZARKS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF I-40. LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEHIND THIS LINE LATER TONIGHT ADDING
TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. THIS AREA REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE RENEWED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER THIS MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. POPS HAVE BEEN
UPDATED TO LIKELY IN THIS ZONE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING.

A LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM NOW OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO RACE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY
IMPACT THE MID SOUTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. POPS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE RAISED OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ENHANCED
SEVERE WEATHER RISK AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE AND
SHEAR INCREASES. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR WIND
DAMAGE...POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD...AND LARGE HAIL. A FEW TORNADOES
MAY ALSO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO EXIST OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED
FOR LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE REST OF
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...AS OF 4AM...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A STALLED COLD
FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND BACK INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. DUAL-POL STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS INDICATE THAT
ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES HAS FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE OVER THE LAST 3-4 HOURS. MORE UPSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI
AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST ARKANSAS ATTM. LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN
SHOWS THIS BOUNDARY SAGGING FURTHER SOUTH LATER THIS MORNING
TRIGGERING CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING QUITE A BIT WARMER WITH
READINGS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AREAWIDE AIDED BY WARM
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

SYNOPSIS...
TRICKY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WE WILL REMAIN ON THE
RING OF FIRE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY...BUT COVERAGE...LOCATION...AND TIMING ARE THE ELUSIVE PUZZLE
PIECES ATTM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EACH
DAY WITH LOWER 70S EACH NIGHT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FIVE DAYS OR
SO.

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ONGOING CONVECTION
OVER WEST TENNESSEE THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA BY
LATE MORNING. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER KANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND GROW INTO A MCS AS IT MOVES
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STORMS WILL
MOST LIKELY TRAIN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AGAIN. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES AND 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WINDS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT EXACT LOCATION IS STILL
VERY DEPENDENT ON EXACT LOCATION OF BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID- SOUTH WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING FLASH
FLOODING...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.

BY FRIDAY MORNING...THE MCS IS EXPECTED TO DIE OUT AND SOME
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL MOST LIKELY BE SETUP ACROSS THE REGION.
DECENT ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY WILL LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND MORE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL FIRE UP DURING THE DAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN STORM TYPE WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
A MCS. THE NEXT WAVE ON SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH LESS COVERAGE IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA MUCH LIKE TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN BY MONDAY AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT THIS WAVE WILL BECOME CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND LINGER
OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP AT
LEAST MENTIONABLE RAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE INTERIVALS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE FIRST MAIN COMPLEX OF
STORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SECOND ROUND WILL BE NEAR
DAYBREAK EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 KTS WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTSIDE OF THE STORMS...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS 10-15 KFT.

SWC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     DESOTO-MARSHALL-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
852 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-061600-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
852 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI...EXTREME WEST TENNESSEE...AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING.
SECONDARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF WEST TENNESSEE...NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND FLASH FLOODING. THE SECONDARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-SOUTH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT.

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
146 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0144 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E HUNTINGDON          36.01N 88.39W
06/05/2014                   CARROLL            TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROAD WASHED OUT WITH CAR STUCK INSIDE THE WASH
            OUT...INTERSECTION OF ROWLAND MILL RD AND MAYTOWN RD

&&

ABS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
201 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0154 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLYTHEVILLE             35.93N 89.92W
06/05/2014  M70 MPH          MISSISSIPPI        AR   ASOS

&&

ABS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
202 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     TSTM WND GST     BLYTHEVILLE             35.93N 89.92W
06/05/2014  M59 MPH          MISSISSIPPI        AR   ASOS

&&

ABS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
203 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MILLINGTON              35.33N 89.89W
06/05/2014                   SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWERLINES DOWN ALONG HWY 51...NEAR WILKENSENVILLE RD

&&

ABS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
206 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BRIGHTON                36.07N 90.35W
06/05/2014                   GREENE             AR   PUBLIC

            ROOF BLOWN OFF BUSINESS NEAR BRIGHTON

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
209 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRUMANN                 35.67N 90.52W
06/05/2014                   POINSETT           AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            KING TRANSPORTATION BUILDING IN TRUMANN WAS COMPLETELY
            DESTROYED

&&

JPM