Alert archive / Texas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

June 16, 2014Pecos County, Texas

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 16, 2014, 6:01 PM CDT for Pecos County, Texas. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 16, 2014, 6:01 PM CDT (23:01 UTC)
Expired: Jun 16, 2014, 7:00 PM CDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Pecos County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 159 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 159 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 255 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -461 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1921 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 81 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 150 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

255 
WUUS54 KMAF 162301
SVRMAF
TXC371-170000-
/O.NEW.KMAF.SV.W.0148.140616T2301Z-140617T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
601 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIDLAND HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 554 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL...AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THESE STORMS
  WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF
  SIERRA MADERA TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SIERRA MADERA...OR ALONG A
  LINE EXTENDING FROM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TO 22 MILES
  NORTHEAST OF MARATHON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
  US 385 FROM FIVE MILES SOUTH OF FT STOCKTON TO THE PECOS TERRELL 
  COUNTY LINE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

BLOWING DUST FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG US 385.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 10248 3023 10278 3046 10311 3089 10286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 297DEG 4KT 3074 10279 3045 10298

$$

2 follow-up statements

481 
WWUS54 KMAF 162326
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

TXC371-170000-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-140617T0000Z/
PECOS-
626 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY...

AT 624 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND VERY
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF SIERRA MADERA TO 11
MILES SOUTH OF SIERRA MADERA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14
MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT STOCKTON TO 23 MILES NORTHEAST OF MARATHON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY CROSSING 
US 385.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE...CENTRAL
PECOS COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SAFE
SHELTER AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3070 10248 3023 10278 3046 10311 3089 10286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 297DEG 4KT 3073 10276 3044 10295

$$

180 
WWUS54 KMAF 162358
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
658 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

TXC371-170008-
/O.EXP.KMAF.SV.W.0148.000000T0000Z-140617T0000Z/
PECOS-
658 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 PM CDT...

AT 658 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAD WEAKENED.
THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 3070 10248 3023 10278 3046 10311 3089 10286
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 297DEG 4KT 3071 10272 3042 10291

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 16, 2:24 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 16, 2:24 PM CDT, 3 hours 37 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A mid level moist axis stretching from nrn Mexico thru the Big Bend
and into the PB along with a shrtwv trof within moisture across
Mexico warrants chance PoPs this PM and at least into the early
evening in the Davis Mtn/Big Bend region. A secondary area of
interest is across the w/nw PB where tstms may eventually develop in
area of low level convergence along a weak dryline. High clouds are
limiting insolation and 12Z MAF sounding does show an elevated mixed
layer that will have to be overcome. 0-6km shear is weak so strong
multi-cell storms are favored, locally heavy rain is possible too
across the Trans Pecos. A rather prominent mid level theta-e ridge
axis will be a key feature across the area Tue/Wed with Mexican
moisture being tapped as the remnant shrtwv trof lifts across the
area Tue. We have opted to increase PoPs farther into the chance
category across the Trans Pecos Tue with local heavy rain possible.
More of the same Wed (chance PoPs) from Trans Pecos into the PB.
This axis may have to be adjusted, probably farther e depending on
mid level theta-e ridge/trof. Also wind fields will be more
favorable for severe storms Wed. ECMWF/GFS still show a weakness in
5h heights Thur warranting at least slight chance PoPs. Will have to
keep a watch on ECMWF into Friday as it aggressively develops a mid
level low across Mexico tapping into more moisture, which would
increase PoPs substantially across the Trans Pecos. GFS does this
too, but a little far e. Thereafter we've slowly downplayed PoPs.
Through this forecast cycle temperatures are not too much a concern
as abundance of clouds, higher dwpnts, precip, and se winds help
keeps temperatures near seasonal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  94  70  92  /  20  20  20  50
BIG SPRING TX              73  94  72  92  /  10  10  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                71  99  69  97  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76  96  75  98  /  30  30  20  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  94  70  93  /  20  30  20  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  90  69  89  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  94  65  94  /  30  20  20  30
MARFA TX                   63  88  61  89  /  40  40  30  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  94  71  92  /  20  20  10  40
ODESSA TX                  73  94  73  92  /  20  20  10  40
WINK TX                    74  98  73  97  /  20  20  20  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 16, 2:11 PM CDT, 3 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-171200-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
211 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014 /111 PM MDT MON JUN 16 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MUCH OF WEST TEXAS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO.
A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH BRIEF WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH POSSIBLE AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL OR LARGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 4:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

TXZ058-067-075-162215-
PECOS-WARD-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
421 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL PECOS AND SOUTH CENTRAL WARD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM
CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED FROM NEAR
COYANOSA...AND SOUTHWARD FOR 16 MILES...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3131 10311 3141 10306 3131 10282 3102 10290
      3097 10298 3121 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 200DEG 6KT 3121 10306

Special weather statement, Jun 16, 4:40 PM CDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
440 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

TXZ075-162215-
PECOS-
440 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 437 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 3 TO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST OF FORT STOCKTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.  THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3097 10298 3102 10290 3094 10282 3073 10291
      3073 10298 3087 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 225DEG 6KT 3085 10299

Local storm report, Jun 16, 5:03 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CDT MON JUN 16 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0453 PM     HAIL             2 W FORT STOCKTON       30.89N 102.92W
06/16/2014  E1.00 INCH       PECOS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MILE MARKER 255 ON INTERSTATE-10

0454 PM     DOWNBURST        2 W FORT STOCKTON       30.89N 102.92W
06/16/2014                   PECOS              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4 POWER POLES DOWN BETWEEN MILE MARKER 255 AND 256. RV
            TURNED OVER

&&

PAT.VESPER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Midland/Odessa, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 15, 7:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Glasscock	58 min
Jun 15, 7:23 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Glasscock	3 hr
Jun 15, 7:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Mitchell	30 min
Jun 15, 7:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Glasscock	65 min
Jun 15, 8:00 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Scurry	30 min
Jun 15, 8:43 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	MAF	Glasscock	2 hr
Jun 15, 8:54 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Howard	36 min
Jun 15, 9:04 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Glasscock	26 min
Jun 15, 9:21 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Glasscock	3 hr
Jun 16, 4:21 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Ward	54 min
Jun 16, 4:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	MAF	Pecos	35 min
Jun 16, 4:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos	64 min
Jun 16, 5:46 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Pecos	3 hr
Jun 16, 6:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Brewster, Pecos	65 min
Jun 16, 6:45 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	MAF	Brewster, Pecos	3 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Texas, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.