Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

117 
WGUS74 KMAF 160233
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
933 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

TXC173-160315-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0019.000000T0000Z-140616T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GLASSCOCK-
933 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL GLASSCOCK COUNTY...

AT 925 PM CDT...THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY RAINS NORTH
OF GARDEN CITY HAVE SINCE MOVED OFF TO THE WEST AND WEAKENED.
EARLIER...HOWEVER...RADAR DERIVED ESTIMATES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FELL ROUGHLY ALONG FM 33 NORTH OF GARDEN CITY...NEAR WHERE
POLECAT CREEK CROSSES FM 33.  BAR DITCHES...LOW WATER CROSSINGS...
AND OTHER LOCATIONS PRONE TO HIGH WATER MAY BE FILLED...AND FARM
AND OIL FIELD ROADS MAY BE IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN AROUND... DONT
DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 10161 3208 10149 3209 10131 3181 10131
      3181 10157

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few tstms around the area, but look to be far enough removed
from TAF sites to preclude including in TAFs. Overnight there
will be an increase in surface winds with the LLJ and they expected
to increase around 04Z at MAF/FST/HOB. Otherwise have opted to
include a late period PROB30 at CNM/HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are developing over southwest Texas...from the
Davis Mountains southward into the northern half of Brewster
County and then back into the Presidio Valley. These thunderstorms will
persist into the evening. Thunderstorm development is also
possible along the dryline from the Lower Trans Pecos region into
the eastern portions of the Permian Basin. However the best rain
chances later today should be over portions of Brewster and Pecos
Counties. Some storms may approach severe levels with the main
threats being high wind and large hail.

With an upper level low pressure system moving into the northwest
U.S. and a general area of upper level ridging over the
southeast...we can expect a persistent southwest upper level flow
pattern over our region into next weekend.

The northern stream upper low will result in associated surface low
pressure deepening over the Central Plains on Monday.  A persistent
surface trough will extend back into southwest Texas through the
week. What this means for our area is a persistent south to
southeast surface flow and staying in the moist air.  The dryline
will remain well to the west...coincident with the surface trough.

When you put everything together...the southwest upper flow pattern
should be conducive for pulling deeper moisture associated with T.S.
Cristina into Presidio and Brewster Counties the next several days.
With this added moisture...a series of weak disturbances in the
southwest flow...favored low level convergence along the surface
trough...and upslope low level flow...primary indications point to
best rain chances for southwest Texas...the Big Bend Region...and
along the persistent surface trough.  With daytime heating isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be the norm
each day through most of the week for these areas. If I were to
make a distinction in the forecast...it might be for Wednesday
evening. Values 0-6 km bulk shear look more significant from the
Big Bend into the eastern half of the CWA. This enhanced shear is coincident
with 2500-3000 j/kg CAPE values. This day looks to have the
greatest potential for severe weather.

I expect only minor adjustments to the current forecast. The
biggest change will likely be for expanding thunderstorm chances
on Wednesday. Outside of Wednesday...we are still not quite into
the weak wind field regimes that we typically see during the
summertime. Steering winds should be from the west to northwest
and be sufficient to allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms
to move farther east into the Permian Basin. However with this
type of persistent pattern...redevelopment of storms over the same
areas could lead to increased flood potential in the next couple
of days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161145-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
231 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 /131 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

BRISK WINDS ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION, INCLUDING THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. A
COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
712 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             GARDEN CITY             31.87N 101.48W
06/15/2014  E1.75 INCH       GLASSCOCK          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MSCHULDT