Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few tstms around the area, but look to be far enough removed
from TAF sites to preclude including in TAFs. Overnight there
will be an increase in surface winds with the LLJ and they expected
to increase around 04Z at MAF/FST/HOB. Otherwise have opted to
include a late period PROB30 at CNM/HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT Sun Jun 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms are developing over southwest Texas...from the
Davis Mountains southward into the northern half of Brewster
County and then back into the Presidio Valley. These thunderstorms will
persist into the evening. Thunderstorm development is also
possible along the dryline from the Lower Trans Pecos region into
the eastern portions of the Permian Basin. However the best rain
chances later today should be over portions of Brewster and Pecos
Counties. Some storms may approach severe levels with the main
threats being high wind and large hail.

With an upper level low pressure system moving into the northwest
U.S. and a general area of upper level ridging over the
southeast...we can expect a persistent southwest upper level flow
pattern over our region into next weekend.

The northern stream upper low will result in associated surface low
pressure deepening over the Central Plains on Monday.  A persistent
surface trough will extend back into southwest Texas through the
week. What this means for our area is a persistent south to
southeast surface flow and staying in the moist air.  The dryline
will remain well to the west...coincident with the surface trough.

When you put everything together...the southwest upper flow pattern
should be conducive for pulling deeper moisture associated with T.S.
Cristina into Presidio and Brewster Counties the next several days.
With this added moisture...a series of weak disturbances in the
southwest flow...favored low level convergence along the surface
trough...and upslope low level flow...primary indications point to
best rain chances for southwest Texas...the Big Bend Region...and
along the persistent surface trough.  With daytime heating isolated
to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms should be the norm
each day through most of the week for these areas. If I were to
make a distinction in the forecast...it might be for Wednesday
evening. Values 0-6 km bulk shear look more significant from the
Big Bend into the eastern half of the CWA. This enhanced shear is coincident
with 2500-3000 j/kg CAPE values. This day looks to have the
greatest potential for severe weather.

I expect only minor adjustments to the current forecast. The
biggest change will likely be for expanding thunderstorm chances
on Wednesday. Outside of Wednesday...we are still not quite into
the weak wind field regimes that we typically see during the
summertime. Steering winds should be from the west to northwest
and be sufficient to allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms
to move farther east into the Permian Basin. However with this
type of persistent pattern...redevelopment of storms over the same
areas could lead to increased flood potential in the next couple
of days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-161145-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
231 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014 /131 PM MDT SUN JUN 15 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

BRISK WINDS ALONG WITH DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN
LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND PERMIAN BASIN, SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND BIG BEND REGION, INCLUDING THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. A
COUPLE OF STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
729 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             2 NW GARDEN CITY        31.89N 101.50W
06/15/2014  E1.75 INCH       GLASSCOCK          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL-SIZED HAIL WITH SIGNIFICANT CAR DAMAGE REPORTED
            JUST NORTHWEST OF GARDEN CITY.

&&

70

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
730 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

TXZ052-053-160100-
HOWARD-MITCHELL-
730 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
EAST CENTRAL HOWARD AND WEST CENTRAL MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME WEST CENTRAL MITCHELL
COUNTY AT 730 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. INTERSTATE 20
EAST OF COAHOMA IS IN THE PATH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 10101 3225 10103 3226 10117 3242 10134
TIME...MOT...LOC 0030Z 233DEG 21KT 3234 10113

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
747 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     HAIL             GARDEN CITY             31.87N 101.48W
06/15/2014  E0.88 INCH       GLASSCOCK          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTED FALLING IN GARDEN CITY.

&&

70

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
800 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

TXZ048-053-160130-
MITCHELL-SCURRY-
800 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING
NORTH CENTRAL MITCHELL AND SOUTHWESTERN SCURRY COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CUTHBERT AT 800 PM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS WILL MOVE INTO THE IRA AREA
AS WELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3271 10097 3254 10070 3238 10101 3256 10116
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 241DEG 10KT 3247 10104

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
854 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

TXZ051-052-160230-
HOWARD-MARTIN-
854 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING SOUTHEASTERN MARTIN AND SOUTHWESTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL
930 PM CDT...

INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOMAX
AND 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF STANTON AT 854 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 15
MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 10168 3210 10181 3224 10187 3230 10170
      3227 10139 3209 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 185DEG 11KT 3217 10161

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
904 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

TXZ062-063-160230-
GLASSCOCK-MIDLAND-
904 PM CDT SUN JUN 15 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
AFFECTING EAST CENTRAL MIDLAND AND WEST CENTRAL GLASSCOCK COUNTIES
UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS LOCATED 9 MILES
NORTH OF BIGBY CORNER AT 902 PM CDT...OR 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MIDLAND...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKLES AND
WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG AND GUSTY OUTFLOW FROM THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL CREATE BLOWING
DUST...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF CONSTRUCTION SITES AND
COTTON FIELDS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED TO BELOW 100 YARDS IN A
BRIEF AMOUNT OF TIME. DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION.

IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND STRONG WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER... YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER NOW.

&&

LAT...LON 3195 10174 3172 10146 3167 10177 3194 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 0202Z 096DEG 5KT 3183 10172