Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
309 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SVR TSTM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NERN 1/2 OF THE FCST AREA.
AS WAS DSCD IN THE MRNG DSCN TEMPS WHICH HV RISEN INTO THE M80S HV
OUSHED SFC BASED CAPE OVR 1000. MINIMAL SHEAR - CURRENT IAD VWP
SHOWING WINDS IN LO LVLS FM ABT 240 AND AT UPR LVLS ARND 300. BLV
THIS WL LEAD TO STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT..HAIL AS A 2NDRY THREAT.

THIS THREAT SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL ARND MID EVE. THE COLD FNT WL BE
PUSHING THRU THE CWA THIS EVE...BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT.
SFC WINDS WL TURN NW...DWPTS DROPPING THRU THE 50S. BY MRNG TEMPS
WL BE BACK INTO THE 50S W/ THE XCPTN OF IN THE CITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...

A COOLER DAY FRI AS CD FNT PUSHES S OF THE CWA. DOMINANT FEATURE
WL BECOME AN UPR LVL LOW FORMING OVR NY/SRN QUEBEC. MOST LKLY THE
MRNG WL START OUT M SUNNY...THEN INCSRG CLDS DURG ERLY AFTN AS LO
LVL INSTABILITY DVLPS FM THE SHARP LO LVL LAPSE RATES. BECAUSE OF
THIS THERE WL BE A CHC RW DURG THE ERLY/MID AFTN...THE MOST LKLY
LOCATION WOULD BE CLOSE TO THE MASON-DIXON LN.

HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MU70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS FRIDAY
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE AND IT WILL TURN OUT DRY AND COOL FRIDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND...BRINGING MAINLY
DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. A COUPLE SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MARYLAND INTO THE WASHINGTON
AND BALTIMORE METROPOLITAN AREAS DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE TIME WILL TURN OUT DRY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A RETURN FLOW WILL
BRING WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND IT WILL STALL OUT NEARBY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

TSTMS HV DVLPD ACROSS NY AND PA...NOW WORKING INTO CENTRAL MD/VA.
ANY TSTMS NEAR THE TERMINALS WL HV THE PTNL TO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. THE PRIMARY TIME WL BE 19 TO 00Z.

AFTRWARDS VFR CONDS ARE XPCTD OVRNGT AND SAT. WINDS WL TURN TO THE
NW W/ GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. SCT RW ARE PSBL SAT AFTN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

&&

.MARINE...

SVR TSTM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE LWX WATERS. SMW'S ARE A
DEFINITE PSBLTY BTWN 3 PM AND 8 PM. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE RMNDR OF THE AFTN THRU OVRNGT...THEN AGN
AFTR MID MRNG FRI.

A PRESSURE SURGE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. THE SMALL CRAFT MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY...BUT WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND A COLD FRONT MAY
IMPACT THE WATERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
     537-539>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ538.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-
     536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-542.

&&

PRODUCTS...WOODY!/BJL/CEM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
224 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057-
231630-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR-
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY-
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER-
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD-
TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH
ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-
CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-
224 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN
CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF
COLUMBIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...CONTINUING
LATE TONIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING
FOR THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE MARYLAND
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IN EFFECT.

MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504-
WVZ050>053-055-501>506-231630-
WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA-
ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-
ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER-
NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-
EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-
224 PM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY
MARYLAND TO GREENE COUNTY VIRGINIA AND POINTS EAST UNTIL 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IN EFFECT.

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