Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Baltimore/Washington

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
310 AM EDT THU MAY 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
BROAD H5 TROF AXIS ACRS NERN CONUS AND SERN CNDA ELY THIS MRNG...W/
A DIGGING S/WV EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACRS THE UPR GRTLKS.
SFC ANALY DEPICTS AN EQUALY BROAD LOW ACRS THE ERN GRTLKS...W/ A
QSTNRY FNT XTNDG SWD TWD THE DELMARVA. A CDFNT CUD BE ANALYZED FM
NWRN OH THRU IN/IL TO INVOF MCI. ALL SFC FEATURES ARE QUITE WK IN
NATURE. HWVR...AMS TO THE S OF THESE FNTS MOIST AND MARGINALLY
UNSTBL. A FEW SMALL SHRA /HVY RAINERS/ DVLPG METRO DC TO SRN MD...W/
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF TSRA /NEARER FORCING/ BLDG ACRS PA. THESE
TSRA ENTERING NRN PTMC HIGHLANDS ATTM.

GDNC STRUGGLING W/ CAPTURING CURRENT SCENARIO...SO AM DEVIATING A
BIT FM IT FOR TDA. ONGOING PCPN PROVES THAT THERE IS SUFFICIENT
INSTBY/LIFT FOR POPS...AND THUS WL BE HIER THAN MOS /CLSR TO
SREF/.  CURRENT ACTIVITY WL ENTER NRN MD/ERN WVA THIS MRNG BEFORE
WKNG SOMEWHAT FM DIURNAL MIN AND ELEVATED NATURE OF ACTIVITY /LOW
CLDS/FOG WL STILL PREVAIL TIL PAST SUNRISE/. SHUD BE BURNING OFF
THESE CLDS BY MID MRNG. XPCT ADDTL TSRA TO DVLP AHD OF CDFNT...IN A
BELT OF FAST H5 WNWLY FLOW...FED BY DIFFERENTIAL HTG AND MESOSCALE
BNDRYS AS WELL. WHILE AFTN STORM CVRG MAY NOT BE GREAT...THE AVBL
SHEAR WL PROVIDE AN FVRBL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG/LCLLY SVR STORMS.
AS WAS THE CASE YDA...THE AMT OF DAYTIME INSOLATION/HTG WL DICTATE
AREAL CVRG. ONCE AGN...WNDS SEEM LIKE THE BIGGEST THREAT...BUT IF
SUPERCELLS CAN DVLP...THEN HAILERS WUD BE PSBL TOO.

MOS TEMPS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND HV ACCEPTED OUTPUT. SINCE WE/RE
PRIOR TO CFP W/ GOOD DOWNSLOPE FLOW...MAXT LWR-MID 80S. AGAIN... WL
NEED FCST LVLS OF INSOLATION FOR THIS TO BE REALIZED.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FNT SHUD CLR AREA BY ELY EVNG...W/ CAA/LWR DEWPTS/CLRG SKIES
ARRIVING THRU THE NGT. HWVR...PTTN ALOFT WL STILL BE CHARACTERIZED
BY BROAD TROFFING ACRS THE NERN CONUS. A S/WV W/IN THIS TROF WL BE
PIVOTING ACRS AREA FRI. THAT WL SUPPORT ADDTL CLDS AND 20-30 POPS
DURING THE DAY. ATM WL BE STBL BY THIS PT...SO ANY PCPN WUD BE JUST
SHRA.

A BLEND OF MOS GNLY ACCEPTED...XCPT MAV MAXT FRI SEEMED A BIT TOO
WARM.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SKIES WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SAT AND MOST OF THE
AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY FOR SUNRISE SAT. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG
THE BAY...WHERE LOW END RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. ANY LINGERING PRECIP THAT DOES FORM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70S FRI
AND SAT WITH LOWS AROUND 50 BOTH NIGHTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BECOME QUIET WEATHER-WISE WITH
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. RISING HEIGHTS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BRING A GOOD WARMING TREND AS FAIRLY BROAD UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES EAST AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE PACIFIC LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE SUNDAY /AND SLOW TO MOVE OUT/ WILL LIMIT MOISTURE RETURN
INTO MONDAY. STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
BRING THE CHANCE OF STORMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST TUESDAY ON THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE.
&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR GNLY PREVAILING ACRS BALT-DC METRO TAFS...XCPT IAD HAS BEEN IN
AND OUT OF THE LOW CLD DECK. TAFS ASSUME THAT THE LOW CLDS WL HOLD
TIL AFTER SUNRISE. HV AREAS OF FOG TOO...BUT THE CIGS LKLY WL BE THE
BIGGER RESTRICTION.

TSRA APPROACHING FM PA ELY THIS MRNG. THESE MAY MAKE IT TO MRB
BEFORE WKNG BY MID MRNG. ELSW...LOW CLDS/FOG WL BE DSPTG...W/ A
SMALL WINDOW OF VFR. XPCT ADDTL TSRA TO DVLP LATER TDA...BUT AREAL
CVRG WL BE A QUALIFIER. AM CARRYING VCTS...AND WL REMAIN THAT WAY
TIL A SOLID TREND CAN BE DISCERNED. NATURE OF CNVTCN SUGGESTS THAT
MAY NOT HPPN TIL GAME TIME. LCL/BRIEF IFR PSBL W/IN STORMS. CFP
DURING LT AFTN-EVE PUSH. WNDS WL PICK UP POST FROPA.

WL HV AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE ROTATING THRU FRI. VFR CIGS BKN050...
MAINLY DRING THE AFTN-ELY EVE. WNDS WL PICK UP AGN AS WELL...
10-15 KT W/ A FEW G20KT.

VFR UNDER HIPRES SAT-MON.
&&

.MARINE...
SLY FLOW AOB 10 KT ON THE WATERS ATTM XCPT LTL WND ON THE UPR PTMC.
WNDS WL VEER WLY AHD OF A CDFNT TDA. MDL GDNC DEPICTING VARYING
SOLNS AS TO DEPTH OF MIXED LYR. IT WUD SEEM PLAUSIBLE THAT AT LEAST
20 KT AVBL...SO AFTN SCA WL BE MAINTAINED. FURTHER...AMS WL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCT TSRA...A FEW OF WHICH WUD CONTAIN MUCH HIER WNDS.
THUS...SMWS LKLY.

MIXING WL BE MAINTAINED INTO THE NGT...SPCLY ON THE OPEN WATERS...
AND WL BE ENHANCED BY A S/WV FRI. SCA FOR MOST OF THE WATERS /XPCT
FOR MID-UPR PTMC/ CONTS TNGT. WL ADD SCA FOR ALL WATERS FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537>541-543.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
     THIS EVENING FOR ANZ535-536-542.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ535-
     536-542.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...AEB
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS

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