Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS St. Louis, MO

623 
WWUS53 KLSX 040117
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
817 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ILC119-133-163-MOC099-183-189-510-040145-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-140404T0145Z/
MADISON IL-MONROE IL-ST. CLAIR IL-JEFFERSON MO-ST. CHARLES MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-
817 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. LOUIS
CITY...ST. LOUIS...EASTERN ST. CHARLES...NORTHERN JEFFERSON...WESTERN
ST. CLAIR...NORTHERN MONROE AND WESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM
CDT...

AT 812 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM PORTAGE DES SIOUX TO LAMBERT FIELD TO DES PERES TO
FENTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WEBSTER GROVES...UNIVERSITY CITY...BRENTWOOD...FERGUSON...COOL
VALLEY...CLAYTON...RICHMOND HEIGHTS...NORMANDY...LAKESHIRE...
DELLWOOD...AFFTON...SHREWSBURY...MAPLEWOOD...OAKVILLE...MEHLVILLE...
NORTHWOODS...HILLSDALE...BLACK JACK...JENNINGS AND LEMAY.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES CASTLEWOOD STATE PARK...CONFLUENCE STATE
PARK...FIRST MISSOURI STATE CAPITOL HISTORIC SITE...HORSESHOE LAKE
STATE PARK...MASTODON HISTORIC SITE...ROUTE 66 STATE PARK AND SCOTT
JOPLIN HISTORIC SITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3822 8991 3836 9075 3857 9061 3888 9054
      3895 9047 3895 9037 3892 9028 3895 9027
      3896 8981 3870 8979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 269DEG 37KT 3891 9032 3875 9031
          3861 9037 3851 9037

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

BRITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
653 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 610 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Minor update to fine-tune PoP trends and timing through 06z.

Kanofsky

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Ongoing regional severe weather event will persist into the evening
hours across the LSX CWA. New convective development is anticipated
to the west along an approaching cold front with eventual upscale
growth into a QLCS. Sufficient shear and instability are available
to produce all types of severe weather, including tornadoes, large
hail, and damaging wind gusts. The greatest tornado threat is across
the southern half of the CWA and anywhere storms might happen to
intersect boundaries such as the synoptic warm front or outflow
boundaries left over from earlier convection.

Kanofsky

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

The aforementioned cold front should have moved through the entire
CWA by 12z Fri with only some -SHRA lingering across the northern
CWA during the morning hours as the upper low continues moving away
from the region. The tight pressure gradient behind the departing
low pressure system will produce breezy conditions through Fri
afternoon. Winds then gradually subside during the late afternoon
and early evening hours once the pressure gradient relaxes.

A surface high then builds in to the region on Fri night with the
center of the surface high located overhead by 12z Sat. The
combination of cooler post-frontal air and good radiational cooling
conditions will produce chilly overnight lows on late Fri
night/early Sat morning. Most locations will be around 10 degrees
below normal with overnight lows expected to be in the upper 20s to
lower 30s. Quiet weather is anticipated on Sat due to the influence
of the surface high.

Meanwhile, another shortwave will lift through northern Mexico,
reaching TX and AR by Sun night. This feature could bring
precipitation to the southeastern CWA on Sun-Mon, especially on Sun
night. Another vort max is forecast to drop down the back side of a
highly amplified trough on Mon night, possibly bringing
precipitation to the area on Tue. Generally expect average to below
average temperatures since the winds maintain an easterly component
(around the south side of a high pressure center over the Great
Lakes) or a northerly component (north of the surface low associated
with the Sun-Mon system) through the middle of next week.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

Line that intiated over western MO earlier this afternoon has
increased its eastward speed...with new development now occuring
in the wake of the line in the residually unstable airmass ahead
of the advancing cold front. Have the primary/most intense
thunderstorm threat (IFR cigs/vsbs) with the leading line...but
have also kept some VCTS going after the passage of the line but
before fropa. Will likely have to refine the threat of this second
area once its trends become a bit more defined. IFR stratus has
been anchored over e KS in the wake of the slow moving cold front,
but believe it will begin to surge east over the next few hours as
shortwave energy ejects east...accelerating the NE movement of the
surface low. Have brought this cloud deck in to most locations as MVFR
cigs, but will also need to monitor upstream trends for this as well.

Specifics for KSTL: Line of strong convection will move into the
area by around 01z...and believe we should at least see some gusty
straight line winds with the passage of the line as well as IFR
vsbys/low end MVFR cigs with brief but very heavy rain associated
with the convection. As mentioned above...also continued VCTS in
the wake of the line for the redevelopment that is occurring over
northern Ozarks. This secondary tsra threat should end with fropa
around 05z, followed by MVFR cigs moving in from the west during
the predawn hours.

Truett

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 AM CDT Friday FOR Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Jefferson MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-
     Pike MO-St. Charles MO-St. Francois MO-St. Louis City MO-
     St. Louis MO-Ste. Genevieve MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 4 AM CDT Friday FOR Bond IL-Calhoun IL-
     Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-
     Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-Pike IL-
     Randolph IL-St. Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
158 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-041115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
158 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION
OF THE AREA. PLEASE SEE THE WATCH PRODUCT FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...RAINFALL
OR FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

KANOFSKY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
658 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     HAIL             3 SW EMDEN              39.77N  91.90W
04/03/2014  E0.70 INCH       SHELBY             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO DIME SIZED HAIL COVERING GROUND.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
734 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     TSTM WND GST     VILLA RIDGE             38.47N  90.88W
04/03/2014  E50 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RELAYED BY MISSOURI TROOP C

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
739 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             3 NNE AUGUSTA           38.61N  90.86W
04/03/2014  E0.25 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
740 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             2 SSW GRAY SUMMIT       38.47N  90.83W
04/03/2014  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            RELAYED BY MISSOURI TROOP C

&&

TES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
754 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             1 SSW EUREKA            38.49N  90.65W
04/03/2014  E0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
759 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     TSTM WND GST     ST. PETERS              38.78N  90.61W
04/03/2014  M52 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TES