Areal Flood Warning 5, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
255 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014

North-south cold front was entering St. Louis area at 07z,
extending from surface low over southeast Iowa. The cold front
will move quickly across the remainder of the CWA early this
morning as the upper trof ejects northeastward and attendant
surface low moves into southern WI. Cold advection in the wake of
the front will keep temperatures falling through 14-15z. Satellite
imagery showed lots of post-frontal stratus stretching well back
into eastern KS, and this will be around through much of the
morning while gradually decreasing in coverage and becoming more
cumuliform late morning into the afternoon. This cloud cover and
gusty west northwest winds will contribute to a cool day with well
below average temperatures. Little if any precipitation is
expected to be ongoing at 400 am and thus the flash flood watch
will be allowed to expire on schedule.

Glass

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Fri Apr 4 2014

High pressure settles into the aera tonight with the surface high
centered in mid MO at 12z Saturday. The high will dominate the
area as it slowly retreats eastward into the Ohio Valley on Saturday,
maintaining the below average temperatures. Next chance of precipitation
is in the Sunday Night-Monday time frame. The deterministic model
solutions show some differences with respect to the upper trof
amplitude and position and associated surface low lifting
northeast from the lower MS Valley. The NAM is the outlier keeping
all rain south and east of the CWA while the remainder of the
guidance brings a rain shield associated with the deformation zone
into at least the southeast third of the CWA. The GFS has the
greatest push into the region and at this time went for a multi-
model blend with the northwest edge of the rain shield bi-secting
the St. Louis metro area. Another short-wave will bring a threat
of showers late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures are expected
to remain below average until the later part of next week.

Glass

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2014

A cold front extending from a surface low over northeast MO, near
UIN south to just east of COU will continue moving eastward. There
may be light showers in the St. Louis metro area til about 08z
Friday. Low level stratus clouds around 1000-2000 ft will advect
into UIN and the St Louis metro area behind the low and trailing
cold front late tonight like they already have in COU. The
surface wind will also veer around to a wly direction late tonight
in UIN and the St. Louis metro area after fropa and become strong
and gusty due to the tight surface pressure gradient behind the
surface low. The cloud ceiling should rise and become VFR Friday
afternoon, then clear out Friday evening as a surface ridge builds
southeastward into the area. The w-nwly surface wind will also
diminish Friday evening as the surface pressure gradient relaxes.

Specifics for KSTL: Some light rain over south central MO may move
through the STL area between 06-08z Friday. MVFR cigs should
advect into STL around 09z Friday along with the sely surface wind
veering around to a wly direction and becoming strong and gusty
after fropa. The MVFR cigs should rise into the VFR catagory
Friday afternoon, then clear out Friday evening. The w-nwly
surface wind will diminish Friday night and eventually become
light as the surface ridge moves over MO by 12z Saturday.

GKS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
407 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-041015-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
407 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

GLASS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>