Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS St. Louis, MO

354 
WWUS53 KLSX 040637
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
137 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOC103-111-127-205-040715-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-140604T0715Z/
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
137 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SHELBY...
WESTERN MARION...LEWIS AND KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 132 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM KNOX CITY TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CALLAO...AND MOVING
EAST AT 50 MPH.  VERY STRONG RADAR INDICATIONS THAT DAMAGING WINDS 
WILL BE OCCURRING ALONG THE KNOX-SHELBY COUNTY LINE.   

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANTON...SHELBINA...LA BELLE...PLEVNA...CLARENCE...LEWISTOWN...
STEFFENVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...MAUD...EWING...EMDEN...MAYWOOD...
PHILADELPHIA...WARREN...LEONARD...NEWARK...BETHEL...MONTICELLO AND
HUNNEWELL.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES WAKONDA STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9150 4011 9151 4004 9150 4001 9147
      3966 9185 3966 9218 3960 9219 3961 9229
      3995 9229 3996 9235 4012 9235 4020 9226
      4026 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 269DEG 43KT 4017 9197 3963 9263

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

TRUETT

942 
WWUS53 KLSX 040652
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
152 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOC103-111-127-205-040715-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-140604T0715Z/
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
152 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SHELBY...
WESTERN MARION...LEWIS AND KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 146 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF EDINA TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CLARENCE TO 5 MILES SOUTH OF MACON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.
RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY STRONG INDICATIONS OF DAMAGING WINDS 
FROM SOUTHERN KNOX AND NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTIES.   

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBINA...CANTON...KNOX CITY...SHELBYVILLE...COLONY...LA BELLE...
MAUD...STEFFENVILLE...LEWISTOWN...EMDEN...PHILADELPHIA...EWING...
WARREN...MAYWOOD...BETHEL...NEWARK...MONTICELLO AND HUNNEWELL.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES WAKONDA STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9150 4011 9151 4004 9150 4001 9147
      3966 9185 3966 9218 3960 9219 3961 9229
      3995 9229 3996 9235 4012 9235 4020 9226
      4026 9219
TIME...MOT...LOC 0650Z 269DEG 43KT 4008 9210 3981 9212
          3967 9241

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

TRUETT

289 
WWUS53 KLSX 040701
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
201 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOC103-111-127-205-040715-
/O.CON.KLSX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-140604T0715Z/
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
201 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SHELBY...
WESTERN MARION...LEWIS AND SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM
CDT...

AT 159 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM LA BELLE TO EMDEN TO MAUD...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBINA...CANTON...LEWISTOWN...EMDEN...PHILADELPHIA...EWING...
WARREN...MAYWOOD...MONTICELLO AND HUNNEWELL.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES WAKONDA STATE PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4020 9150 4011 9151 4004 9150 4001 9147
      3966 9185 3966 9218 3960 9219 3961 9229
      3995 9229 4021 9194
TIME...MOT...LOC 0701Z 267DEG 44KT 4009 9189 3982 9191
          3968 9220

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

TRUETT

423 
WWUS53 KLSX 040712
SVSLSX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
212 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

MOC103-111-127-205-040723-
/O.EXP.KLSX.SV.W.0128.000000T0000Z-140604T0715Z/
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-MARION MO-SHELBY MO-
212 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SHELBY...WESTERN MARION...
LEWIS AND SOUTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 215 AM CDT...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY.  HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 4020 9150 4011 9151 4004 9150 4001 9147
      3966 9185 3966 9218 3960 9219 3961 9229
      3995 9229 4021 9194
TIME...MOT...LOC 0713Z 267DEG 44KT 4010 9170 3983 9172
          3969 9201

$$

TRUETT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1257 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

.UPDATE:
Issued at 742 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

Have updated the forecast to increase pops further south along the
I-70 corridor late tonight. Convection-allowing models are showing
the southern side of the forward propagating MCS sagging southward
overnight fueled by outflow interactions with a 50kt low level
jet. Have also bumped up pops for lingering convection tomorrow
morning...generally along and east of the Mississippi River.
Conditions still look ripe for severe storms with damaging winds
and large hail...primarily across the northern quadrant of the
CWFA, but can't totally rule out severe storms as far south as
the I-70 corridor overnight. Locally heavy rain also continues to
be a threat overnight.

Carney

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

Focus thru this period continues to be the track of MCS overnight.

Mdls still disagree with timing and placement of the MCS tonight.
With little movement of the wrmfnt today, believe a more srn track
will develop than prev thought. Due to the uncertainty, have not
pulled POPs too far S for tonight. Main threat for tonight
continues to be very high winds as the MCS develops, but tornadoes
will also be possible, especially near any sfc boundaries.

With ample cloud cover tonight, kept temps on the warmer side
except where precip is anticipated.

Tilly

.LONG TERM:  (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Tue Jun 3 2014

(Wednesday through Friday)

Main concern will the potential for a few severe thunderstorms over
the southern part of the CWA during the day on Wednesday.  Any
severe weather from tonight's MCS should have moved east the area by
12Z, though lingering showers and thunderstorms will likely still be
producing some rainfall over the northern and eastern counties in a
band of 925-850mb moisture convergence.  This forcing will then
diminish during the morning hours as the low level jet weakens and
veers.  The atmosphere will become extremely unstable along the
front during the afternoon hours with MLCAPE values reaching
3000-4000 J/kg with little CINH.  Deep layer shear will also be in
the 40-50kt range suggesting that any storms are able to develop
along the front will be capable of becoming severe.  Front will not
move far enough south on Wednesday night to keep thunderstorms out
of the forecast over the southern part of the CWA.

By Thursday the front will move far enough south that all but part
of the eastern Ozarks will be dry.  By Thursday night and Friday the
ECMWF is showing strong low level moisture convergence over the area
at the same time that a weak shortwave trough will move across the
area. Have a chance of showers and thunderstorms going both
periods.

After being well above normal over most of the area tomorrow,
temperatures will below normal on Thursday and Friday.

(Saturday through next Tuesday)

Looks like there is enough agreement between the GFS and ECMWF that
a warm front will move north into Missouri and Illinois by Saturday
evening in response to a surface low developing over the Central
Plains.  The surface low will then track northeast to near Chicago
by early Sunday which will cause a cold front to pass through the
CWA during the day.  Will still have best chances of showers and
thunderstorms going Saturday into Sunday.  The front will move well
south of the area on Monday, though another trough will move through
the area on Tuesday bringing a slight chance of showers.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm behind the warm front on
Saturday, though they will be at or a bit below normal the rest of
the period behind the cold front.

Britt

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

An elongated mesoscale convective system currently stretches from
central IL across northern MO into southeast NE, and is focused
along and north of the warm front. There are a number of intense
thunderstorm clusters on the southern periphery of this elongated
system, and the overall motion is to the east southeast. KUIN
should continue to see bouts of thunderstorms through daybreak with
flight conditions varying from MVFR to IFR. It still appears that
the thunderstorm complex will impact both KCOU and the St. Louis
area terminals for a 3-4 hour period accompanied by gusty winds
and flight conditions ranging from MVFR to IFR. Additional
scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
front on Wednesday afternoon as it gradually settles southward but
the probability is too low to explicity mention in the TAFS.

Specifics for KSTL:

A complex of thunderstorms extending from northwest Missouri into
southeast Nebraska will move southeastward during the overnight
hours. Present indications are the thunderstorm complex will have
enough southward push to impact KSTL beginning around 10z and
lasting until around 14z. The intensity is hard to gage and could
certainly be stronger than the current forecast of wind gusts to
25 kts and MVFR flight conditions. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible along the front on Wednesday afternoon
as it moves southward, and have added a VCTS for 21z-00z.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-041115-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
357 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WHERE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...A FEW TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BRITT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1126 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0943 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINA                   40.17N  92.17W
06/03/2014                   KNOX               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS AND OTHER DEBRIS DOWN THROUGHOUT
            EDINA CLOSING APPROXIMATELY HALF OF ROADWAYS IN AND
            AROUND TOWN.

&&

GOSSELIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
06/03/2014                   ADAMS              IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AT A BUISNESS IN DOWNTOWN QUINCY

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1142 PM CDT TUE JUN 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
06/03/2014                   ADAMS              IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AT A BUISNESS ON THE EAST SIDE QUINCY

&&

CORRECTED REMARKS

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1208 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 AM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT STERLING          39.98N  90.76W
06/04/2014  E60 MPH          BROWN              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

FGLASS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1215 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1208 AM     TSTM WND GST     GRIGGSVILLE             39.71N  90.73W
06/04/2014  E45 MPH          PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1208 AM     HAIL             GRIGGSVILLE             39.71N  90.73W
06/04/2014  E0.75 INCH       PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CARNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1230 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1229 AM     HEAVY RAIN       QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
06/04/2014  M1.90 INCH       ADAMS              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOUTH SIDE OF QUINCY.

&&

CARNEY