Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
438 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

Large MCS with embedded line segments containing strong wind gusts
and very rainfall rates continues to drop southeastward through the
northern and western portion of our forecast area early this
morning.  The IR cloud tops have begun to cool which may signal the
beginning of a slow weakening trend in the convection.  No new
severe thunderstorm watches are anticipated, although there still may
be isolated severe wind gusts along with localized flooding this
morning. The gradually weakening convection should shift
southeastward through east central and southeast MO and southwest
IL early this morning, then likely shift southeast of our
forecast area by late morning as advertised by the HRRR model.
Although the actual synoptic cold front will not make it down to
central MO and southern IL until late this afternoon or early
this evening, the effective boundary will be the outflow
boundaries from this mornings convection and will be further
south. Therefore redevelopment of convection this afternoon
should be mainly across southeast MO and southwest IL. High
temperatures will be quite warm again today south of the cold
front despite the morning cloud cover.

GKS

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

The cold front will drop southward into southern portions of MO
and IL tonight with convection confined to southeast MO and
southwest IL tonight along the front.  A surface ridge will build
southward into northeast MO and west central IL and bring cooler
temperatures to this area. This front will push just south of our
forecast area on Thursday with cooler, slightly below normal high
temperatures forecast. With weak shortwaves moving fairly quickly
eastward through the region in nearly zonal flow along with the
frontal boundary gradually trying to lift back northward as the
surface ridge over the Great Lakes region shifts eastward into
the Ohio Valley region, the threat for convection will gradually
shift back north-northeastard through our forecast area Thursday
night and Friday. The models are relatively consistent in bringing
convection through our entire forecast area late Friday night and
Saturday as a fairly strong shortwave shifts eastward through the
region and induces a surface wave along the front which should be
across northern or central portions of MO by this time. The chance
of convection will continue on Sunday as a cold front drops
southeastward through the region Sunday afternoon and night.

GKS

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 4 2014

An elongated mesoscale convective system currently stretches from
central IL across northern MO into southeast NE, and is focused
along and north of the warm front. There are a number of intense
thunderstorm clusters on the southern periphery of this elongated
system, and the overall motion is to the east southeast. KUIN
should continue to see bouts of thunderstorms through daybreak with
flight conditions varying from MVFR to IFR. It still appears that
the thunderstorm complex will impact both KCOU and the St. Louis
area terminals for a 3-4 hour period accompanied by gusty winds
and flight conditions ranging from MVFR to IFR. Additional
scattered thunderstorm development will be possible along the
front on Wednesday afternoon as it gradually settles southward but
the probability is too low to explicity mention in the TAFS.

Specifics for KSTL:

A complex of thunderstorms extending from northwest Missouri into
southeast Nebraska will move southeastward during the overnight
hours. Present indications are the thunderstorm complex will have
enough southward push to impact KSTL beginning around 10z and
lasting until around 14z. The intensity is hard to gage and could
certainly be stronger than the current forecast of wind gusts to
25 kts and MVFR flight conditions. Additional thunderstorm
development will be possible along the front on Wednesday afternoon
as it moves southward, and have added a VCTS for 21z-00z.

Glass

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
538 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-051045-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
538 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS TODAY. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. THERE IS
ALSO A THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GKS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
907 AM CDT WED JUN 04 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 S ASHLEY              38.30N  89.19W
06/03/2014  E2.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         IL   PUBLIC

            2 INCHES OF RAIN IN JUST 20 MINUTES. BASEMENT FLOODED
            FOR ONLY THE 2ND TIME IN 28 YEARS.

0702 PM     FLOOD            ASHLEY                  38.33N  89.19W
06/03/2014                   WASHINGTON         IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPARTMENT REPORTS ROAD CLOSURES NEAR ASHLEY ON
            STATE RD 15 DUE TO MINOR FLOODING.

0935 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HURDLAND                40.15N  92.30W
06/03/2014                   KNOX               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND UPROOTED AND SIGNS BLOWN OVER.

0940 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINA                   40.17N  92.17W
06/03/2014                   KNOX               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND UPROOTED. DAMAGE TO SIGNS.

0943 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINA                   40.17N  92.17W
06/03/2014                   KNOX               MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NUMEROUS LARGE LIMBS AND OTHER DEBRIS DOWN THROUGHOUT
            EDINA CLOSING APPROXIMATELY HALF OF ROADWAYS IN AND
            AROUND TOWN.

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINA                   40.17N  92.17W
06/03/2014                   KNOX               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREES LIMBS DOWN IN THE ROADS. WIND GUST
            ESTIMATED 60 MPH.

0945 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINA                   40.17N  92.17W
06/03/2014                   KNOX               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN. ROOF OFF OF A GARAGE WITH AT LEAST
            TWO TREES DAMAGING ROOFS OF HOUSES.

0958 PM     HAIL             LA BELLE                40.12N  91.91W
06/03/2014  E0.25 INCH       LEWIS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0958 PM     TSTM WND GST     LA BELLE                40.12N  91.91W
06/03/2014  E40 MPH          LEWIS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1000 PM     TSTM WND GST     NOVELTY                 40.01N  92.21W
06/03/2014  M62 MPH          KNOX               MO   MESONET

            MEASURED BY MISSOURI MESONET

1000 PM     TSTM WND DMG     EDINA                   40.17N  92.18W
06/03/2014                   KNOX               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD DAMAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
            COUNTY. NUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED...SEVERAL FARM BUILDINGS
            DAMAGED WITH SOME BEING DESTROYED AND SUBSTANTIAL CROP
            DAMAGE.

1005 PM     TSTM WND GST     N LEWISTOWN             40.08N  91.81W
06/03/2014  M65 MPH          LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1005 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEWISTOWN               40.08N  91.81W
06/03/2014                   LEWIS              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN IN LEWISTOWN.

1005 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N LEWISTOWN           40.10N  91.81W
06/03/2014  E65 MPH          LEWIS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1007 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LEWISTOWN               40.08N  91.81W
06/03/2014                   LEWIS              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE LIMBS DOWN

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
06/03/2014                   ADAMS              IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDOWS BLOWN OUT AT A BUISNESS ON THE EAST SIDE QUINCY

1051 PM     FLOOD            2 E MONTICELLO          40.12N  91.67W
06/03/2014                   LEWIS              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER ON ROUTE 16 HAS CLOSED TRAFFICE IN BOTH
            DIRECTIONS.

1120 PM     TSTM WND GST     QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
06/03/2014  M71 MPH          ADAMS              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN IN WASHINGTON PARK.

1207 AM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNT STERLING          39.98N  90.76W
06/04/2014  E60 MPH          BROWN              IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1208 AM     TSTM WND GST     GRIGGSVILLE             39.71N  90.73W
06/04/2014  E45 MPH          PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1208 AM     HAIL             GRIGGSVILLE             39.71N  90.73W
06/04/2014  E0.75 INCH       PIKE               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

1229 AM     HEAVY RAIN       QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
06/04/2014  M1.90 INCH       ADAMS              IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SOUTH SIDE OF QUINCY.

0145 AM     FLOOD            PLEVNA                  39.97N  92.09W
06/04/2014                   KNOX               MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE 156 CLOSED IN BOTH DIRECTIONS DUE TO WATER ON
            ROADWAY.

0424 AM     TSTM WND GST     COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
06/04/2014  E70 MPH          BOONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED 70-75 MPH WINDS AT KOMU-TV SOUTH OF COLUMBIA
            WITH DIME SIZED HAIL

0424 AM     HAIL             COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
06/04/2014  E0.70 INCH       BOONE              MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ESTIMATED 70-75 MPH WINDS AT KOMU-TV SOUTH OF COLUMBIA
            WITH DIME SIZED HAIL

0424 AM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
06/04/2014                   BOONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ACROSS COLUMBIA.

0424 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S ASHLAND             38.74N  92.26W
06/04/2014                   BOONE              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF PARTIALLY RIPPED OFF A BARN

0520 AM     TSTM WND GST     HERMANN                 38.70N  91.44W
06/04/2014  E50 MPH          GASCONADE          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND SPEED ESTIMATED AT 45-50 MPH.

0540 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE KANE              39.15N  90.33W
06/04/2014                   JERSEY             IL   PUBLIC

            BRICK HOUSE AND CAR DAMAGED WITH TOYS IN TREES. THIS
            WAS A FACEBOOK ENTRY ON THE KMOV-TV FB PAGE. VIEWER
            THOUGHT THE DAMAGE WAS POSSIBLY TORNADIC.

0541 AM     TSTM WND DMG     PIASA                   39.12N  90.13W
06/04/2014                   MACOUPIN           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS LARGE SYCAMORES UPROOTED BRIEFLY CLOSING
            ILLINOIS 16. ALSO DAMAGED SEVERAL CARS.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       QUINCY                  39.93N  91.39W
06/04/2014  M3.25 INCH       ADAMS              IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            AT QUINCY LOCK AND DAM 21.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       CANTON                  40.13N  91.52W
06/04/2014  M2.95 INCH       LEWIS              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL FROM CANTON LOCK AND DAM 20.

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
06/04/2014  M2.09 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL BETWEEN 2 AND 6 A.M. REPORTED VIA E-SPOTTER.

0602 AM     TSTM WND GST     SULLIVAN                38.22N  91.17W
06/04/2014  M40 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            WEST WIND MEASURED AT 40 MPH.

0605 AM     TSTM WND GST     HARVESTER               38.75N  90.58W
06/04/2014  M46 MPH          ST. CHARLES        MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

0609 AM     HEAVY RAIN       NEW HAVEN               38.61N  91.22W
06/04/2014  M1.21 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            1.21 INCHES FELL IN THE PAST 40 MINUTES.

0615 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 W UNION               38.45N  91.07W
06/04/2014  E40 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       O'FALLON                38.78N  90.71W
06/04/2014  M1.20 INCH       ST. CHARLES        MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0620 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W UNION               38.45N  91.11W
06/04/2014                   FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            3 POWER POLES SNAPPED ALONG HIGHWAY AJ.

0628 AM     HEAVY RAIN       UNION                   38.45N  91.01W
06/04/2014  M1.60 INCH       FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

0630 AM     TSTM WND GST     VILLA RIDGE             38.47N  90.88W
06/04/2014  E40 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0630 AM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW GRAY SUMMIT        38.54N  90.87W
06/04/2014                   FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            SMALL TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY T NEAR LABADIE.

0634 AM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION                   38.45N  91.01W
06/04/2014                   FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            MAN IS TRAPPED IN A CAR WITH TREES DOWN ON THE CAR AND
            ON HOUSES.

0640 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S UNION               38.43N  91.01W
06/04/2014                   FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 47 JUST SOUTH OF TOWN.

0640 AM     TSTM WND GST     ROBERTSVILLE            38.41N  90.82W
06/04/2014  E50 MPH          FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            HEAVY RAIN WITH AN WIND GUST ESTIMATED TO 50 MPH.

0640 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CATAWISSA               38.42N  90.78W
06/04/2014                   FRANKLIN           MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON POWER LINES...A HOUSE AND A
            CAR...RELAYED VIA KSDK

0648 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSE ROBERTSVILLE      38.39N  90.80W
06/04/2014                   FRANKLIN           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            8-10 INCH LIMBS BROKEN OFF ABOUT HALFWAY UP THE TREES.

0654 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CEDAR HILL              38.36N  90.64W
06/04/2014                   JEFFERSON          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL EIGHT INCH TREES SNAPPED.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       EDINA                   40.17N  92.17W
06/04/2014  M4.51 INCH       KNOX               MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 7 A.M..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HANNIBAL                39.71N  91.38W
06/04/2014  M2.58 INCH       MARION             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       STEFFENVILLE            39.97N  91.88W
06/04/2014  M3.57 INCH       LEWIS              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24-HR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
06/04/2014  M2.08 INCH       BOONE              MO   COCORAHS

            COLUMBIA RAINFALL RANGED FROM 1.42 TO 2.08 INCHES.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 S MONROE CITY         39.64N  91.73W
06/04/2014  M2.20 INCH       MONROE             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COLUMBIA                38.95N  92.33W
06/04/2014  M2.02 INCH       BOONE              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL AT SANDBORN FIELD ON MIZZU CAMPUS

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       SAVERTON                39.64N  91.27W
06/04/2014  M2.78 INCH       RALLS              MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL FROM L AND D 22

0704 AM     FLOOD            1 W SHELBYVILLE         39.81N  92.06W
06/04/2014                   SHELBY             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            ROUTE K IN BOTH DIRECTIONS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING FROM
            BLACK CREEK.

0711 AM     HEAVY RAIN       PALMYRA                 39.80N  91.52W
06/04/2014  M4.60 INCH       MARION             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NE GRIGGSVILLE        39.73N  90.70W
06/04/2014  M2.60 INCH       PIKE               IL   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL

0814 AM     HEAVY RAIN       MIDWAY                  38.98N  92.45W
06/04/2014  M3.61 INCH       BOONE              MO   PUBLIC

            FB REPORT THROUGH A COLUMBIA TV STATION METEOROLOGIST.

&&

MILLER