Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
321 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 320 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

...Strong to Severe Storms Possible Late This Afternoon and
Evening...

The synoptic pattern this afternoon features a deamplifying trough
across the eastern CONUS, with an upstream ridge over the western
CONUS.  This regime will continue to flatten out through the short
term period, bringing more tranquil conditions.

A severe thunderstorm has already erupted this afternoon over
portions of southern IN and northern KY.  This storm continues to
ride along an effective warm front, which resides across southern IN
southeast into the Bluegrass region of Kentucky.  As of 315PM EDT,
it was slightly elevated, but could become surface-based at any time
as temperature/moisture advection continue to the south.  Given
favorable effective SRH values of 200-300+ m2/s2, this storm will
continue to be watched for tornadic potential.

Considerable uncertainty continues in just how far southwest
convection will develop late this afternoon/evening.  Coordinated
with SPC and put out the tornado watch as far south as a line from
Hart to Casey County.  However, think the best coverage of
thunderstorms will likely remain north of this, across portions of
the Northern Bluegrass.  More scattered convection could affect
these southern areas this evening, likely after 22Z as a weakly
convergent front pushes into the region.  Given only weak
convergence, coupled with building heights aloft and associated
mid-level subsidence, it is uncertain how robust these storms will
be able to get.  Bottom line is: highest confidence in severe and
associated tornado threat across northern KY (northern Bluegrass),
with less confidence in the severe threat further southwest across
central KY.  In addition to the tornado threat, large hail and
damaging winds will be possible.

Otherwise, convection will push east tonight, as we finally see a
reprieve from precipitation chances.  Clouds should clear out
overnight, which will help with the viewing of the lunar eclipse
Wednesday morning.  Overnight lows will fall into the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

On Wednesday, skies will turn partly cloudy as the upper-level flow
turns more zonal.  Given the expected sunshine and warmer 850mb
temperatures, highs should top out in the low to mid 70s, making for
quite a pleasant day.

The next system will approach the region from the southwest late
Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.  Isentropic ascent will
commence as the flow rides up a sharpening warm front across
portions of western TN.  This may lead to some showers or an
isolated storm pushing into portions of southern KY toward 12Z
Thursday.  Overnight lows will range from the mid 40s northeast
(northern Bluegrass) to the mid 50s southwest (near Bowling Green).

.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

...Periods of rain expected late this week through the weekend...

We will be in an active weather pattern through the long term with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected. For Thursday
a weak disturbance will dive towards the region in the northwest
flow aloft. In addition a boundary will set up across central
Kentucky. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop during the day.

Rain chances will be on the increase Thursday night with likely
showers and thunderstorms continuing on Friday as an elongated area
of low pressure moves into the region from the southwest. With ample
moisture feeding into this system from the south and southwest some
of these showers could produce moderate to heavy rainfall at times.
As the low moves off to the northeast it will slowly drag a cold
front through central Kentucky. Rounds of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms will continue through the weekend as the boundary
stalls and multiple disturbances ride along it. This boundary will
eventually push back to the north as a low moves into southern
Indiana. The models begin to diverge in their solutions towards the
end of the long term. Thus will continue to carry just 30-40% chance
of precipitation through Monday.

Temperatures will be quite variable from north to south across the
region this weekend and will depend on precipitation coverage as well
as how far south the front sinks. A warm up is expected early next
week with temperatures rising into the mid 70s Monday.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

Several rounds of convection continue to plague terminals early this
afternoon.  One round continues to push east and will affect KLEX
very shortly.  A second round is pushing in from the northwest, and
may build back to the southwest, affecting KSDF and KLEX.  KBWG
looks to be on the southern edge of the better forcing with a
building capping inversion. Will cautiously take precip out of the
KBWG TAF with this issuance, and continue to monitor.  Outside of
any convection, expect VFR conditions with gusty winds around 25
knots, perhaps approaching 30 knots (especially at KBWG) at times.

Otherwise, convection will push east of all terminals tonight, as
some drier air finally works into the region.  Clouds should scatter
out as winds relax overnight into Wednesday, with VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........KJD
Long Term.........EER
Aviation..........KJD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
231 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

INZ076>079-084-090>092-KYZ025-028>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-081845-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CRAWFORD IN-
HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-MEADE KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
MARENGO...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...BRANDENBURG...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD
231 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 /131 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/

...TORNADO WATCH 523 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ083-089-KYZ023-024-026-027-061-062-070>078-081-082-081845-
DUBOIS IN-PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JASPER...TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...
ALBANY
131 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KD/EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             2 NNE LA GRANGE         38.43N  85.36W
10/07/2014  E0.50 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   COCORAHS

            HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED BY COCORAHS OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400889

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             LA GRANGE               38.40N  85.38W
10/07/2014  E0.70 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE CRYSTAL LAKE AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400890

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             3 SW LA GRANGE          38.37N  85.42W
10/07/2014  E0.75 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400891

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
325 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHARLESTOWN             38.45N  85.67W
10/07/2014                   CLARK              IN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A LAUNDROMAT ON PARK STREET

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400892

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
327 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0307 PM     HAIL             EMINENCE                38.37N  85.17W
10/07/2014  E1.75 INCH       HENRY              KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WINDSHIELD CRACKED ON CAR DUE TO HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400893

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
345 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 PM     HAIL             10 NNE FRANKFORT        38.32N  84.80W
10/07/2014  E1.00 INCH       FRANKLIN           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN THE PEAKS MILL AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400894

RL