Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Louisville, KY

928 
WWUS53 KLMK 071941
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
341 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

KYC211-071950-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-141007T1950Z/
SHELBY KY-
341 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED EAST OUT OF 
THE COUNTY. NO SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS HAVE BEEN REPORTED TO THE 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT THIS TIME.

LAT...LON 3825 8497 3833 8485 3829 8456 3812 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 289DEG 45KT 3826 8470 3819 8476

$$

KYC073-209-239-071950-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0244.000000T0000Z-141007T1950Z/
SCOTT KY-WOODFORD KY-FRANKLIN KY-
341 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN...
NORTH CENTRAL WOODFORD AND WEST CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 350 PM
EDT...

AT 337 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF FRANKFORT TO FRANKFORT...AND
MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
STAMPING GROUND...WHITE SULPHUR...DUVAL AND MOON LAKE ESTATES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMAIN ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO! TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY
FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF YOU SPOT A TORNADO GO AT ONCE INTO THE
BASEMENT OR SMALL CENTRAL ROOM IN A STURDY STRUCTURE.

&&

LAT...LON 3825 8497 3833 8485 3829 8456 3812 8473
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 289DEG 45KT 3826 8470 3819 8476

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

TWF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
123 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 1058 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

Have updated the forecast to reflect the latest trends.  Showers
continue to dissipate over central Kentucky, as warm-air advection
convection has been confined further to the south in TN.  However,
strong thunderstorms have pushed into southern Indiana.  These will
continue to push through, likely maintaining at least some strength
as they head into the region.

The main severe threat will be later on this afternoon, and the
threat continues to remain conditional at this time.  It will all
hinge on just how much instability can be realized along a weak
front/wind shift pushing through this afternoon, and if
surface-based convection will fire along it. In addition, mid-level
height rises may tend to hinder updraft strength.  Nonetheless, the
latest HRRR continues to suggest that scattered storms, potentially
supercells, will develop across central KY this afternoon.  Large
hail will be the main threat, but damaging winds and even an
isolated tornado or two will be possible.  Low-level shear is a bit
more impressive today than it was on Monday, so do think there is a
conditional tornado threat today if surface-based storms can
develop.

Issued at 710 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

Adjusted POPs to delay the next round of convection by a few hours.
A complex of showers with embedded thunder was headed east from
Illinois with a few stronger cells popping up in our area as of
7am.  The latest HRRR indicates we'll continue to see these stronger
cells form out ahead of the main line and those will be the ones to
watch as far as any immediate threat for strong to severe storms.
Also of note, the HRRR has the line strengthen toward mid to late
morning as it moves through the region.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday)...
Issued at 330 AM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

...Strong Storms Possible Today...

Early this morning convection has already begun to get going again
on arrival of an upper level shortwave from the south.  Numerous
storms were popping up from Morgantown to Stanford early this
morning.  The cells likely contain some small hail in addition to
heavy rainfall and frequent lightning.  Will continue to monitor
these storms closely as they grow upscale but overall not expecting
them to reach severe limits due to lack of instability currently.

This early morning wave of convection will be the first of
potentially three waves.  This first wave looks to push through the
region during the pre-dawn hours.  We should see a break in precip
around sunrise or shortly after before another wave of convection
arrives by mid to late morning courtesy of a potent shortwave diving
SE across MO/IL early this morning.   Convection with this wave has
the potential to be strong to severe as a 50-60 kt h7 jet dives into
the area along with the nose of a potent upper level jet.  Although
wind fields are impressive, available instability remains a big
question mark for today.  The NAM and GFS seem to be quite generous
with instability which may work out like yesterday.  However,
yesterday we were more aligned with the base axis of the upper
trough which seemed to be pretty efficient in clearing clouds after
rounds of convection possibly due to unidirectional wind fields
throughout the column.  Today we'll enter the western side of the
trough and upper level winds will become more NW which may result in
more clouds overall as clouds from convection upstream get blown
into our region.  This is already the apparent trend looking at
satellite imagery early this morning.  If we're cloudy for most of
the day, think that storms will be limited in strength probably
remaining below severe limits.  However, it should be noted, that if
we can some how get some clearing and instability that is advertised
by the NAM/GFS is realized, we could be in for a similar setup as
far as severe weather as we were yesterday with large hail, damaging
winds, and an isld tornado possible.  The best time period for
strong to potentially severe storms with wave #2 is from mid morning
through mid afternoon.

Finally a third round of convection is progged by some of the short
range models during the evening hours over the Bluegrass and perhaps
south central KY as short range models indicate redevelopment
possible on boundaries left over by convection earlier in the day.
Again depending on how much instability is left and where those
boundaries lay out, the potential for strong to marginally severe
storms exists.  Keep an eye on forecast updates throughout the day
in case storms do end up being on the stronger side.

Outside of any storm today, expect gusty southwest winds with gusts
in the 20-30 mph range common.  High temperatures should reach the
upper 60s and lower 70s.

Tonight convection will clear the area as the upper trough and cold
front move east of the region.  Low temps tonight will fall into the
upper 40s and lower 50s with some light fog possible.

Wednesday will be dry and sunny with highs in the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

...A wet week expected beginning as early as late Thursday and
continuing into the weekend...

Late Wednesday, the upper air pattern will feature split flow across
the Rockies, with ridging across Idaho north of a 500mb trough
associated with the southern stream of the jet forecast over
Arizona. Both branches of the jet will come together over the plains
within a confluent low well south of a retreating deep low over
Hudson's Bay.

Initially, dry air will reside over the Commonwealth within a light
wind regime. However, towards late Thursday, Gulf moisture, along
with moisture from the remains of former eastern Pacific hurricane
Simon, will push north across the southern Plains and the Lower
Mississippi Valley. By late Thursday, a frontal boundary will
develop eastwards of weak low pressure forecast to develop near the
Texas Panhandle. It will extend eastwards and lie somewhere over or
near the Commonwealth. This boundary, parallel to the mid and upper
level winds, will move little over several days and will become the
focus of several episodes of showers through at least Saturday.

Wednesday night will stay mostly clear with light winds and lows
ranging from near 50 to the lower 50s. Mid and upper level moisture
will begin to stream in from the west by mid to late Thursday, with
a change of rain developing by late Thursday or early Friday. Highs
Thursday will reach the lower 70s.

Various models vary on the exact placement of a nearly stationary
front from Late Thursday through Saturday. The latest NAM has this
boundary near Interstate 64 around dawn Friday; the GFS has it
around 75 miles farther north. Feel that moisture advection and
isentropic lift will bring rather widespread rains along and north
of this surface boundary. Precipitation will likely begin late
Thursday, mostly likely along or north of Interstate 64. Showers
will then overspread the entire region Friday, possibly bring
substantial rains of an inch or more. Some guidance has this surface
boundary sagging south late Friday into early Saturday, which may
allow a slowly southwards progression of precipitation towards the
Tennessee Valley. Both the ECMWF and to a much lessor extent the GFS
develop a 500mb trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley late
Sunday. Should this verify, additional rounds of precipitation may
continue Sunday and Monday.

It won't rain the whole time from late Thursday through Monday.
Currently rain is quite likely from late Thursday through Friday,
with more episodic showers Saturday through Monday. Despite Monday's
storms, we are relatively dry. However some locations this weekend
may eventually receive enough rain to create some runoff
problems.

With widespread cloud cover, temperatures Friday through Monday will
be somewhat seasonal, and depend on precipitation timing and the
eventual location of this afore-mentioned stationary front.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2014

Several rounds of convection continue to plague terminals early this
afternoon.  One round continues to push east and will affect KLEX
very shortly.  A second round is pushing in from the northwest, and
may build back to the southwest, affecting KSDF and KLEX.  KBWG
looks to be on the southern edge of the better forcing with a
building capping inversion. Will cautiously take precip out of the
KBWG TAF with this issuance, and continue to monitor.  Outside of
any convection, expect VFR conditions with gusty winds around 25
knots, perhaps approaching 30 knots (especially at KBWG) at times.

Otherwise, convection will push east of all terminals tonight, as
some drier air finally works into the region.  Clouds should scatter
out as winds relax overnight into Wednesday, with VFR conditions
expected.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........KJD/AMS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......JSD
Aviation.......KJD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
231 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014

INZ076>079-084-090>092-KYZ025-028>043-045>049-053>057-063>067-081845-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CRAWFORD IN-
HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-MEADE KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
MARENGO...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...JEFFERSONVILLE...BRANDENBURG...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...
VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...
SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...
HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...RICHMOND...
MUNFORDVILLE...GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD
231 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2014 /131 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014/

...TORNADO WATCH 523 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

INZ083-089-KYZ023-024-026-027-061-062-070>078-081-082-081845-
DUBOIS IN-PERRY IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-
BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-
BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-
CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JASPER...TELL CITY...HAWESVILLE...
HARDINSBURG...BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...
RUSSELLVILLE...BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...
TOMPKINSVILLE...EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...
ALBANY
131 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND SOME GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT ANY HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KD/EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
251 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0713 PM     TORNADO          2 S CREELSBORO          36.85N  85.20W
10/06/2014                   CLINTON            KY   NWS STORM SURVEY

            EF1 TORNADO DID PRIMARILY TREE DAMAGE IN EXTREME
            NORTHERN CLINTON COUNTY

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400886

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
252 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHARLESTOWN             38.45N  85.67W
10/07/2014                   CLARK              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM RELAYED REPORTS OF AN 18 INCH IN DIAMETER TREE DOWN
            IN A YARD AS WELL AS OTHER TREES DOWN IN THE AREA.
            MULTIPLE POWER OUTAGES WITH ESTIMATED 60MPH WINDS AND
            PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400887

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
258 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             2 SE CHARLESTOWN        38.43N  85.64W
10/07/2014  E0.88 INCH       CLARK              IN   PUBLIC

            CHARLESTOWN STATE PARK REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND
            POWER OUTAGES IN THE AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400888

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
259 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             2 NNE LA GRANGE         38.43N  85.36W
10/07/2014  E0.50 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   COCORAHS

            HALF INCH HAIL REPORTED BY COCORAHS OBSERVER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400889

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
301 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     HAIL             LA GRANGE               38.40N  85.38W
10/07/2014  E0.70 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF DIME SIZE HAIL IN THE CRYSTAL LAKE AREA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400890

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
307 PM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0257 PM     HAIL             3 SW LA GRANGE          38.37N  85.42W
10/07/2014  E0.75 INCH       OLDHAM             KY   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400891

LG