Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1228 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Forecast Update...
Issued at 1225 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Latest thinking continues to remain on track.  Current severe
convection across east-central KY is likely still elevated in
nature, given surface temperatures only in the upper 60s and lower
70s.  This convection will mainly pose a large hail (possibly golf
ball sized at times) and isolated damaging wind threat.

A rather volatile airmass is advecting into south-central KY,
however, as peaks of sunshine have broke out (Bowling Green at
91/72).  The prefrontal trough will interact with this airmass later
this afternoon, which should be enough to weaken the cap and
intiaite scattered supercells, mainly across south-central KY.  The
latest runs of the HRRR continues to support this thinking.  These
supercells will be capable of large hail (potentially 2+ inches) and
damaging winds.  There will also be an isolated tornado threat given
the low-level speed shear and the lingering outflow boundaries that
storms may be able to interact with.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today's
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they'll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we'll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday's highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We'll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Mesoscale......KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
938 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-281345-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
938 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 /838 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KD/AMS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1223 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

KYZ036-037-042-271655-
BOURBON KY-HARRISON KY-SCOTT KY-
1223 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 50 MPH WINDS...

AT 1221 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OWENTON...AND MOVING EAST
AT 50 MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 45
TO 50 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  CYNTHIANA...
  STONEWALL AND HINTON...
  ALBERTA AND RUTLAND...
  CONNERSVILLE AND BRECKINRIDGE...
  POINDEXTER AND GARNETT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 8427 3838 8470 3850 8456 3852 8449
      3854 8448 3854 8444 3856 8443 3857 8441
      3854 8416 3851 8418 3851 8416 3849 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 1623Z 285DEG 43KT 3846 8466

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1231 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     HAIL             MT. EDEN                38.05N  85.15W
07/27/2014  E2.00 INCH       SPENCER            KY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400719

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1234 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1228 PM     HAIL             DANVILLE                37.64N  84.77W
07/27/2014  E0.70 INCH       BOYLE              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400720

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1134 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

KYZ027-063-064-271705-
GRAYSON KY-GREEN KY-HART KY-
1134 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZE HAIL...
AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 1133 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MUNFORDVILLE...AND MOVING
EAST AT 45 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  MUNFORDVILLE...
  LEITCHFIELD CROSSING AND KESSINGER...
  WOODSONVILLE...
  GLEN LILY AND HINESDALE...
  CANMER AND PASCAL...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
65 AND 71.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 8559 3718 8566 3732 8614 3741 8606
TIME...MOT...LOC 1634Z 283DEG 40KT 3734 8602

EER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1249 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1249 PM     HAIL             CYNTHIANA               38.39N  84.30W
07/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       HARRISON           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400721

RL