Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
657 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Made minor updates to account for continuing convection across
central KY and southern IN. Heavy to torrential rainfall continues
to be the primary threat as a relative min in severe activity
briefly occurs. Gusty winds will continue in and around storms and
the gradient winds will increase as the diurnal heating machine
kicks in. The HRRR has been one of the best performing models
through the overnight period so if this pans out, this relative min
could continue through the next few hours before ramping back up
again. Shear is already beginning to increase and instability will
be on the rise.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today's
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they'll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we'll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday's highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We'll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........lg
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
406 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-280815-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
406 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 /306 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...DANGEROUS AND SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS. ANY STORM THAT GOES SEVERE WILL
CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.

FOR TODAY...THE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY TO
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING.
ADDITIONAL HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

LG/AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INZ089-090-KYZ023>025-028>030-045-053-270755-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-BULLITT KY-HANCOCK KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-JEFFERSON
KY-LARUE KY-MEADE KY-NELSON KY-PERRY IN-
312 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN...
PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 311 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF
HARDINSBURG TO 8 MILES NORTH OF ELIZABETHTOWN...AND MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  HARDINSBURG...
  ELIZABETHTOWN...
  BRANDENBURG...
  PAYNEVILLE AND TONIEVILLE...
  SIROCCO AND ROANOKE...
  MIDWAY AND BOSTON...
  EKRON AND BRANDENBURG STATION...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 105 AND 94.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN KENTUCKY (FORD) PARKWAY BETWEEN
MILE MARKERS 136 AND 137.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
10 AND 1.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

&&

LAT...LON 3800 8653 3816 8626 3813 8592 3775 8546
      3758 8576 3770 8666 3806 8671
TIME...MOT...LOC 0712Z 276DEG 31KT 3793 8642 3782 8584

AMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
352 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INZ076-083-084-089-090-KYZ025-028>030-045-053-270835-
BULLITT KY-CRAWFORD IN-DUBOIS IN-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-JEFFERSON
KY-LARUE KY-MEADE KY-NELSON KY-ORANGE IN-PERRY IN-
352 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...TREMENDOUS OVERNIGHT LIGHTNING SHOW WITH HEAVY RAIN AND 40 MPH
WINDS...

AT 347 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM JASPER TO ENGLISH TO
BRANDENBURG AND MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...HALF INCH HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  VALLEY STATION...
  PLEASURE RIDGE PARK...
  FAIRDALE...
  SHEPHERDSVILLE...
  HODGENVILLE...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
105 AND 94.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
105 AND 92.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3851 8708 3851 8698 3849 8695 3851 8694
      3850 8688 3853 8684 3853 8669 3863 8668
      3823 8595 3819 8596 3819 8589 3806 8564
      3780 8539 3746 8557 3840 8708
TIME...MOT...LOC 0749Z 289DEG 23KT 3813 8649

JDG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INZ090-KYZ024-025-028-270920-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-HARDIN KY-HARRISON IN-MEADE KY-
452 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
RAIN...AND HALF INCH HAIL...

AT 447 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MEADE AND NORTHERN HARDIN COUNTIES.
THE STORMS WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH.

FREQUENT TO NEARLY CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...INCLUDING CLOUD TO GROUND
TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITIES...AND HAIL UP TO HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ELIZABETHTOWN...
  BRANDENBURG...
  FORT KNOX AND FOUR CORNERS...
  VINE GROVE AND ROGERSVILLE...
  LONG VIEW AND RINEYVILLE...
  ADDINGTON FIELD AIRPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES.

&&

LAT...LON 3812 8620 3788 8584 3786 8582 3783 8575
      3782 8574 3762 8579 3772 8620 3798 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 0849Z 300DEG 33KT 3786 8608

TWF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
432 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

KYZ053-054-063>065-074-076-271015-
BARREN KY-GREEN KY-HART KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-METCALF KY-TAYLOR KY-
432 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL
RAIN...AND 45 MPH WINDS...

AT 430 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES EAST OF
HODGENVILLE TO 9 MILES NORTH OF MUNFORDVILLE TO 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
LEITCHFIELD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH...ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

* THESE STORMS WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  MUNFORDVILLE...
  GREENSBURG...
  CAMPBELLSVILLE...
  ATTILLA AND LINWOOD...
  MAPLE AND MOUNT BEULAH...
  WHITE ROSE AND WILLOWTOWN...
  DURHAMTOWN AND SALOMA...

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE
MARKERS 53 AND 76.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS...AND AVOID USING THE
TELEPHONE UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

&&

LAT...LON 3709 8604 3739 8605 3740 8602 3740 8604
      3745 8604 3744 8590 3746 8589 3746 8570
      3754 8559 3752 8556 3756 8555 3756 8552
      3758 8551 3732 8529 3709 8559
TIME...MOT...LOC 0931Z 328DEG 30KT 3756 8559 3739 8583
          3741 8612

AMS

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