Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Louisville, KY

371 
WWUS53 KLMK 271611
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

KYC049-067-271621-
/O.CAN.KLMK.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-140727T1635Z/
CLARK KY-FAYETTE KY-
1211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE AND
SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3769 8410 3786 8443 3787 8441 3784 8439
      3785 8437 3790 8438 3788 8435 3791 8429
      3790 8426 3787 8426 3789 8423 3787 8422
      3788 8418 3786 8416 3787 8413 3785 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 285DEG 40KT 3789 8414

$$

KYC151-271635-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-140727T1635Z/
MADISON KY-
1211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 1235 PM EDT...

AT 1208 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF
WINCHESTER...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ELLISTON...COLLEGE HILL AND BYBEE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3769 8410 3786 8443 3787 8441 3784 8439
      3785 8437 3790 8438 3788 8435 3791 8429
      3790 8426 3787 8426 3789 8423 3787 8422
      3788 8418 3786 8416 3787 8413 3785 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1611Z 285DEG 40KT 3789 8414

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MJ

691 
WWUS53 KLMK 271620
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1220 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

KYC151-271635-
/O.CON.KLMK.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-140727T1635Z/
MADISON KY-
1220 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 1235 PM EDT...

AT 1218 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
CLAY CITY...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3778 8409 3778 8410 3777 8409 3769 8410
      3776 8424 3786 8416 3787 8413 3785 8411
      3785 8409 3783 8410 3782 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 285DEG 40KT 3786 8402

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

MJ

397 
WWUS53 KLMK 271629
SVSLMK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1229 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

KYC151-271639-
/O.EXP.KLMK.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-140727T1635Z/
MADISON KY-
1229 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1235 PM EDT/1135 AM CDT/...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

LAT...LON 3778 8409 3778 8410 3777 8409 3769 8410
      3776 8424 3786 8416 3787 8413 3785 8411
      3785 8409 3783 8410 3782 8409
TIME...MOT...LOC 1629Z 285DEG 40KT 3783 8390

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
933 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Mesoscale Update...
Issued at 932 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Updated the forecast this morning to account for ongoing trends.
Convection continues to develop across central KY early this morning
as the low-level jet continues to impinge upon a lingering outflow
boundary/effective weak warm front.  Much of this convection remains
elevated at this time due to overnight convection and surface
temperatures in the lower 70s.  However, the capped warm sector has
already pushed ENE into western Kentucky (into BWG as of this
writing) and will continue to try and push northeast into central KY
through the late morning and early afternoon hours.  It appears the
best chance for renewed surface-based convection will be along a
pre-frontal trough, which is currently just south of Saint Louis
northeast toward Indianapolis.

The storms that can form will be fighting a decent mid-level cap,
and with effective shear of 50-60 knots oriented orthogonal to the
surface forcing, these factors will favor initial supercell
development.  With the EML advecting in dry air aloft and steep
mid-level lapse rates, large hail appears to be the main threat
along with damaging winds.  An isolated tornado is also possible
given mostly speed shear in the low-levels, but the greatest tornado
threat will likely reside across eastern KY where low-level flow
will be more favorably backed.  It must be said, all of this is
quite conditional if we can see some breaks in the clouds before the
trough moves in.  It appears the better diurnal heating by the time
the trough moves in will be south of the Ohio River, with the
greatest threat appearing to be across south-central KY. Certainly a
complex forecast, and will continue to update as needed.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

...Severe weather threat continues this morning through much of
today...

Currently:

The MCS that rolled through the forecast area late Saturday night
has not stopped convection from re-firing in a line extending
currently from roughly Daviess County, IN southeastward through
Elizabethtown, KY. These storms have developed near theta-e
advecting in from the west, along with an increase of low-level
PWATs, per the CIMMS NearCast model. This cluster has all of the
features of being severe; however, latest available AMDAR soundings
show a shallow stable layer, which may help to keep the worst of the
winds aloft. Regardless, the concern is certainly there that despite
that these storms should be primarily elevated, they seem to be able
to overcome the layer and go surface-based. An additional concern
that was not present with the previous MCS is that a directional
shear component has been added to the increase in speed shear as the
low-level jet ramps up and surface southerly winds persist.

Today:

Continued uncertainty exists for the exact evolution of today's
storms, although given how easily convection was able to develop
overnight and how quickly the local atmosphere was able to recover
behind the MCS, this is concerning given all of the other parameters
that will line up to create a severe threat for much of central KY
and south-central IN. The worked over atmosphere has not stopped
storm development. Models are showing 0-6km bulk shear today will be
increasing from approximately 30kts. in southern KY to 50kts. north
of the Ohio River to 40kts in the south to 60kts. in the north by
late today. SBCAPE, while some already exists this morning, will
increase to over 2500 J/kg under the sun today. The focus of where
storms will develop and how they'll move will be a short-term,
mesoscale based forecasting approach as they ride leftover
boundaries and wherever the greater instability sets up, which
currently looks to be in southern and eastern KY. Hi-res models are
showing multiple rounds of storms but clearing out by late this
afternoon. Think this will be more dependent on the timing of the
front. The mode early on could be discrete supercells, congealing
into potentially a broken line as they merge and coalesce with one
another. The primary concern for any severe storms today will be
damaging winds and heavy to torrential rainfall, with secondary
concerns for hail and potentially an isolated tornado.

Highs today are expected to reach the upper 80s in the north and the
low 90s in the south, despite any cloud cover as the WAA pipeline
remains at full blast until the fropa.

Tonight through Monday:

Once the well-advertised cold front pushes through (expected to be
through the forecast area by tonight), the storms will go with it,
leaving clearing skies and a dry forecast for the overnight period.
However, clouds will clutter the skies once more on Monday with a
chance for showers, especially in the Bluegrass region and locations
east of I-65. This is as the upper low spins down into the region,
which will also bring significantly cooler temperatures. Look for
lows to range from the lower 60s in the north to the upper 60s in
the southeast. Highs on Monday will range from the mid 70s in the
north to around the 80 degree mark in the south.

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

An amplified pattern over the CONUS will persist this week with
troughing noted over the Midwest providing unseasonably cool
weather.

Tues-Thurs we'll be dry with sfc high pressure in the area.
Tuesday's highs will flirt with record cold highs which are in the
70s at climate stations.  Forecast highs for Tuesday range from
73-79 across the area.   We'll then see a little bit of a warm-up
into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Wed/Thu.  Night time lows will
be in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

By Friday, the pattern looks to attempt to become more a of a split
flow with an upper low attempting to be cut off over the Midwest.
As shortwaves increase in the trough and upper low toward the end of
the week, rain/storm chances will re-emerge with on and off
showers/storms possible through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 651 AM EDT Sun Jul 27 2014

Difficult forecast for today as ongoing convection causes
uncertainty in how convection will evolve later today. A surface low
is progged over central IL and moving toward the NE. Aloft,
upper-level low pressure is rotating down from the NW as a deep
Canadian trough primes to take over the region.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to threaten all three
terminals but given the uncertainty in timing, have not included
specifics other than VCTS (but even this is likely to change
throughout the day). Amendments will need to be made as storms
develop and threaten the terminals. The fropa is expected to have
cleared all three terminals sometime or shortly after 00Z Monday and
will take with it storm activity.

Winds will be a concern during the day as 15 to 20 knot
southwesterly gradient winds are expected with higher gusts. Winds
could be higher in or around any storms.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........KJD
Short Term.....lg
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......lg

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
938 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-281345-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-
PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-BRECKINRIDGE KY-
MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-
NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-
LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-
EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-
WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-
ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM...LEITCHFIELD...ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...
MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...
BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...
CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...
PARIS...CARLISLE...BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...
NICHOLASVILLE...WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...
LANCASTER...RICHMOND...MORGANTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...MUNFORDVILLE...
GREENSBURG...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD...RUSSELLVILLE...
BOWLING GREEN...FRANKLIN...SCOTTSVILLE...GLASGOW...TOMPKINSVILLE...
EDMONTON...COLUMBIA...JAMESTOWN...BURKESVILLE...ALBANY
938 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 /838 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE TODAY.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE.

KD/AMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1123 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1112 AM     HAIL             TAYLORSVILLE            38.03N  85.34W
07/27/2014  E1.50 INCH       SPENCER            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400714

RL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

INZ077-091-092-KYZ030-031-034-271605-
CLARK IN-FLOYD IN-JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-SHELBY KY-WASHINGTON IN-
1134 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PENNY
SIZE HAIL...AND 40 MPH WINDS...

AT 1130 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF SALEM...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN REDUCING
VISIBILITIES...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 TO 40
MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THIS STORM WILL ALSO IMPACT...
  ST. MATTHEWS...
  PROSPECT...
  OKOLONA...
  LYNDON...
  LOUISVILLE...
  HAMBURG AND SAINT JOSEPH...
  OAK PARK AND CEMENTVILLE...
  UTICA AND LOUISVILLE BOWMAN FIELD...
  ORCHARD GRASS HILLS AND PEWEE VALLEY...

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
127 AND 137.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 65 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
0 AND 8.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
10 AND 8.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 64 IN INDIANA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
118 AND 123.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT INTERSTATE 71 IN KENTUCKY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS
1 AND 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO...
WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 8536 3808 8567 3836 8603 3842 8603
      3842 8611 3845 8616 3854 8602
TIME...MOT...LOC 1534Z 298DEG 62KT 3841 8595

KD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1141 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1135 AM     HAIL             MARTINSBURG             38.45N  86.03W
07/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400715

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1149 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     LIGHTNING        LEXINGTON               38.04N  84.46W
07/27/2014                   FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

            WINDOWS OF HOME BROKEN BY LARGE HAIL IN NORTH LEXINGTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400716

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1153 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               38.04N  84.46W
07/27/2014  E1.75 INCH       FAYETTE            KY   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400717

RL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1154 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 AM     HAIL             VERSAILLES              38.05N  84.73W
07/27/2014  M2.00 INCH       WOODFORD           KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER LMK1400718

RL