Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FUELING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INVERTED TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWEST AZ/BAJA CA. THESE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED. THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NV SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1
INCH. THEREFORE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PLENTY JUICY FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. PLUS DYNAMICS FROM INVERTED TROUGH WILL HELP WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ON THE DOWN SIDE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND HENCE CONVECTION. ALSO
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 500-400 MB WHICH WILL
ALSO HELP CAP CONVECTION. WITH THAT SAID WILL CONTINUE WITH FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL NV SUNDAY, BUT AS NOTED ABOVE NOT A CLEAR
CUT SITUATION AND COULD END UP GETTING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. ON MONDAY INVERTED TROUGH
FEATURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NV WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEARING 1.2 INCHES. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ALL THE UNCERTAINTY AS WAS
NOTED ABOVE FOR CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHERN NV FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE LONG TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BRINGING
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH
PW'S INITIALLY OVER ONE INCH MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING TO NEAR
.75" ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW'S
IN NORTHERN NEVADA.

THURSDAY THE SHORTWAVE SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME DIFFERENCE
ON THE TIMING...BUT DO EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN ELKO...EUREKA AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH PW'S DROPPING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH COULD
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION SO INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH KELY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT 30 TO 40
PERCENT WITH LOWER CHANCES AT THE OTHER TERMINALS OF 15 TO 25
PERCENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE STORMS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE WILL FUEL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN, OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING TUESDAY BUT ENOUGH WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

91/90/90/91

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
153 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NVZ031-022145-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
153 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM PDT...

AT 151 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF CONTACT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  U. S. ROUTE 93 NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 11431 4166 11439 4176 11489 4194 11483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 269DEG 11KT 4185 11471

RCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
311 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NVZ031-022300-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
311 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM PDT...

AT 306 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES EAST OF CONTACT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4161 11426 4150 11452 4173 11467 4182 11446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 329DEG 6KT 4169 11450

RCM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
328 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NVZ037-022300-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
328 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM PDT...

AT 320 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GARDEN PASS.  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   GARDEN PASS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3985 11600 3966 11614 3978 11636 3994 11625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 299DEG 1KT 3981 11620

RCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
358 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NVZ037-022345-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
358 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LANDER COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM PDT...

AT 357 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 27 MILES NORTH OF AUSTIN ALONG STATE ROUTE
305...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STATE ROUTE 305 IN RURAL CENTRAL LANDER COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 11702 3979 11696 3976 11729 4001 11734
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 259DEG 3KT 3987 11717

RCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
420 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NVZ036-037-030015-
NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-SOUTHERN LANDER
COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
420 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN LANDER AND EXTREME
WESTERN EUREKA COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM PDT...

AT 411 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND EXTREME
WESTERN EUREKA COUNTY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  AUSTIN...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 11778 3922 11773 3926 11774 3941 11770
      3944 11765 3947 11766 3953 11758 3954 11751
      3962 11747 3977 11751 3991 11747 3996 11752
      4009 11748 3975 11646 3925 11661
TIME...MOT...LOC 2320Z 228DEG 5KT 3953 11706

RCM