Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
230 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FUELING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NV THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF INVERTED TROUGH
OVER SOUTHWEST AZ/BAJA CA. THESE CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND WILL CUT BACK THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED. THIS INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL NV SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO OVER 1
INCH. THEREFORE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PLENTY JUICY FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN. PLUS DYNAMICS FROM INVERTED TROUGH WILL HELP WITH
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER ON THE DOWN SIDE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER WILL INHIBIT DAYTIME HEATING AND HENCE CONVECTION. ALSO
FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 500-400 MB WHICH WILL
ALSO HELP CAP CONVECTION. WITH THAT SAID WILL CONTINUE WITH FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL NV SUNDAY, BUT AS NOTED ABOVE NOT A CLEAR
CUT SITUATION AND COULD END UP GETTING MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. ON MONDAY INVERTED TROUGH
FEATURE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NV WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEARING 1.2 INCHES. HOWEVER WILL HAVE ALL THE UNCERTAINTY AS WAS
NOTED ABOVE FOR CENTRAL NV ON SUNDAY SO WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR NORTHERN NV FOR MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW AND SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA DURING THE LONG TERM.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW AND SHORTWAVE WILL VERY
SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BRINGING
MOISTURE AND CONVECTION ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH
PW'S INITIALLY OVER ONE INCH MONDAY NIGHT AND DECREASING TO NEAR
.75" ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW'S
IN NORTHERN NEVADA.

THURSDAY THE SHORTWAVE SLIPS EAST OF THE AREA WITH SOME DIFFERENCE
ON THE TIMING...BUT DO EXPECT MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAINLY IN ELKO...EUREKA AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH PW'S DROPPING TO NEAR A HALF INCH AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE REGION BUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS STILL
POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

SATURDAY SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING NORTHERN NEVADA WHICH COULD
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION SO INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH KELY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT 30 TO 40
PERCENT WITH LOWER CHANCES AT THE OTHER TERMINALS OF 15 TO 25
PERCENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE STORMS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE WILL FUEL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN, OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SOME DECREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING TUESDAY BUT ENOUGH WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY...SOUTHERN
LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

91/90/90/91

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
153 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NVZ031-022145-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
153 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM PDT...

AT 151 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF CONTACT...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  U. S. ROUTE 93 NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 11431 4166 11439 4176 11489 4194 11483
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 269DEG 11KT 4185 11471

RCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
311 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NVZ031-022300-
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
311 PM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM PDT...

AT 306 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES EAST OF CONTACT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL NORTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4161 11426 4150 11452 4173 11467 4182 11446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2211Z 329DEG 6KT 4169 11450

RCM