Special Weather Statement, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
210 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS NEVADA...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON, THIS TIME
FAVORING THE SW CWA. WITH THE LOSS OF A FOCUSING MECHANISM, AND A
DEGRADED MOISTURE SUPPLY, THUNDERSTORMS WERE MUCH SLOWER TO GET
GOING TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. CAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM, BUT
TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY WHERE DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR
IS EXPECTED TO HOLD (PW DOWN TO 1/2 INCH PER 12Z GFS).

ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE IMPROVES MARGINALLY ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
VERY STRONG MOISTURE SURGE FROM THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD, NEAR SAN DIEGO SATURDAY, AND ENTERING SOUTHERN
NEVADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IN THE GRIDS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, FOCUSING ON AREAS
WHERE NAM/GFS INSTABILITY FIELDS OVERLAP. ADDED A MENTION OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL BOTH DAYS, ALTHOUGH THE LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING
TIMEFRAME IS WHEN HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING IS MOST
LIKELY. WITH THE ADDITIONAL FORCING OF THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
FROM THE SOUTH, INTERACTING WITH A STRONG INJECTION OF RICH
MONSOON MOISTURE, 12Z GFS SUGGESTS FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY ACROSS
CENTRAL NEVADA BY SUNDAY EVENING. GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO FROM 12Z ECMWF, PLACING ITS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
TONOPAH LATE SUNDAY, AND STRONG LIFT OF A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA. NOW THAT WE ARE IN THE 48 HOUR WINDOW, DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL
NEVADA. HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN NEVADA EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ON MONDAY, AS DISTURBANCE TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.  TURNER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NV SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY PROVIDING A JUICY ATMOSPHERE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1 INCH FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN. WEAK TROUGHINESS AND INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 3/4 INCH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NV THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE AT THE KELY/KWMC TERMINALS AT ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE. CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF PW,
FORCING, AND ASSOCIATED COVERAGE. MOST STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY,
TREND TOWARDS WET, AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE OF RAIN CORES WILL POSE A NEW FIRE START RISK.
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES MORE PROBABLE ACROSS FWZ 467/468 (HUMBOLDT
COUNTY) WHERE PW IS MORE MARGINAL. MOISTURE QUALITY INCREASES
ACROSS ALL FWZ BY SUNDAY EVENING, WITH PW APPROACHING/EXCEEDING
ONE INCH, WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING LIKELY, INCLUDING NEAR ANY BURN
SCARS. CONVECTION WILL PRODUCE ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS TO NEAR 50
MPH, AND WILL POSE A RISK FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. OTHERWISE, WINDS
OUTSIDE OF STORMS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/91/91/99

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
337 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

NVZ030-012300-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY NV-
337 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY UNTIL
400 PM PDT...

AT 334 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF DENIO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   DENIO...
   STATE HIGHWAY 140 SOUTH OF DENIO...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4179 11866 4192 11877 4200 11865 4200 11820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 234DEG 14KT 4190 11860

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
355 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

NVZ040-041-012330-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY NV-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY NV-
355 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NYE COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
PDT...

AT 352 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES EAST OF TONOPAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   SALISBURY SUMMIT ALONG U. S. ROUTE 6...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3804 11689 3804 11691 3805 11692 3827 11681
      3817 11655 3803 11665 3804 11688
TIME...MOT...LOC 2255Z 205DEG 9KT 3805 11678

RCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
358 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

NVZ030-012330-
HUMBOLDT COUNTY NV-
358 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM PDT...

AT 352 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DENIO...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   DENIO...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4184 11848 4187 11872 4200 11871 4200 11844
      4200 11843
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 190DEG 9KT 4195 11858

RCM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
445 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

NVZ040-041-020015-
NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY NV-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY NV-
445 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NYE COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM
PDT...

AT 439 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 32 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MANHATTAN...MOVING NORTH AT
10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  STONE CABIN VALLEY...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 11658 3844 11632 3820 11647 3827 11668
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 202DEG 8KT 3832 11653

RCM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>