Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
305 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A TREND TOWARD DRIER AIR IS ON THE HORIZON. STORMS AND
SHOWERS WILL STILL AFFECT NORTHERN NEVADA AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SPREAD
OUT. FLOODING IS STILL LIKELY IN MANY AREAS THROUGH THURSDAY...DUE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL START ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHARP TROUGH THAT HAS
CREATED INSTABILITY AND FUELED THE REGION WITH RECORD PW'S IS
OPENING AND MOVING EAST. DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA IS
WEAKENING AND SO STEADY RAIN WHICH HAS PRODUCED NEARLY 3 INCHES IN
TWO DAYS IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...IS BEGINNING TO GET MOTH EATEN
ON RADAR.

FURTHER SOUTH...INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS HAVE PLAGUED CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEVADA FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO AND SHOW SIGNS OF POPPING
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING WELL AFTER SUNSET. THEY ARE MOVING MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN
DAYS PREVIOUS AND SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REDUCED BUT NOT
ELIMINATED. THE THREAT OF SEVERE IS THEREFORE INCREASED.
STILL...AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED BEAUCOUP RAINFALL IN THE LAST
24-48 HOURS WILL STILL FLOOD WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL.

EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG OVER A SWATH FROM NORTHEAST NEVADA TO NEAR
AUSTIN FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MID MORNING THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY.

AS TROUGH MOVES OUT AND DE-INTENSIFIES...VERY WEAK FLAT RIDGE MOVES
IN...THEN IS DEPRESSED FURTHER BY ANOTHER...YET STILL WEAK...TROUGH
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...THURSDAY WILL STILL BE UNSETTLED AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND WE
RETURN TO A MODIFIED INVERTED V SOUNDING AIRMASS.

FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE TEMP PROFILE WILL PROVIDE
FOR MOSTLY DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR TAIL END CONVECTION IN FAR NORTHEAST
NEVADA. RISK OF FOG DECREASES DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT IN HOW TO HANDLE A
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ECMWF PLACES THE WAVE OVER
EASTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON FRIDAY EVENING...WEAKENING AS IT
PUSHES INTO IDAHO BY SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE EC THEN
PROGS A WEAK LOW TO FORM OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND HOLDS THE WAVE NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG NORTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN
OREGON FRIDAY NIGHT...SLOWLY BROADENING IT TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS DISCREPANCY IN UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO OUR WEST LEADS TO DISCREPANCIES FOR CONVECTIVE LOCATIONS OVER
THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY HOWEVER MODELS BEGIN TO COME INTO A LITTLE
BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING A BROAD TROUGH OVER CA/NV. IN GENERAL
EXPECT INCREASING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH REDUCED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY. AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT TUESDAY...EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. MODELS ARE TRENDING INSTABILITY EAST WITH THE LATEST RUN SO
STORMS TUESDAY MAY END UP BEING CONFINED TO ELKO AND WHITE PINE
COUNTIES. GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING OVER THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHARP TROUGH THAT HAS
CREATED INSTABILITY AND FUELED THE REGION WITH RECORD PW'S IS
OPENING AND MOVING EAST. DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NORTHERN NEVADA IS
WEAKENING AND SO STEADY RAIN WHICH HAS PRODUCED NEARLY 3 INCHES IN
TWO DAYS IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE
FLOODING OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...IS BEGINNING TO GET MOTH EATEN
ON RADAR.

FURTHER SOUTH...INDIVIDUAL SUPERCELLS HAVE PLAGUED CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEVADA FOR THE LAST DAY OR SO AND SHOW SIGNS OF POPPING
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING WELL AFTER SUNSET. THEY ARE MOVING MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN
DAYS PREVIOUS AND SO FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS REDUCED BUT NOT
ELIMINATED. THE THREAT OF SEVERE IS THEREFORE INCREASED.
STILL...AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED BEAUCOUP RAINFALL IN THE LAST
24-48 HOURS WILL STILL FLOOD WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL.

EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG OVER A SWATH FROM NORTHEAST NEVADA TO NEAR
AUSTIN FROM LATE TONIGHT TO MID MORNING THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY.

AS TROUGH MOVES OUT AND DE-INTENSIFIES...VERY WEAK FLAT RIDGE MOVES
IN...THEN IS DEPRESSED FURTHER BY ANOTHER...YET STILL WEAK...TROUGH
OFFSHORE. THEREFORE...THURSDAY WILL STILL BE UNSETTLED AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO CAUSE ISOLATED FLOODING AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT AND WE
RETURN TO A MODIFIED INVERTED V SOUNDING AIRMASS.

FRIDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR AND MORE STABLE TEMP PROFILE WILL PROVIDE
FOR MOSTLY DRY DAY EXCEPT FOR TAIL END CONVECTION IN FAR NORTHEAST
NEVADA. RISK OF FOG DECREASES DRAMATICALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.
.AVIATION...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AT KWMC AND KEKO WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ENDING BY EARLY EVENING. DRIER AIR
IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL NEVADA WITH MOST CONVECTION
EXPECTED NORTH OF KELY...HOWEVER MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY INTO
THIS EVENING NEAR THE AIRPORT. DRY AND STABLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KTPH
TOO...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH. SOME CUMULUS BUILD-UPS
OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER
NOT EXPECTING TS AT ANY TERMINAL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL LOOKING AT VERY WET ATMOSPHERE OVER MOST OF
THE FIRE DISTRICT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY STORMS WILL BE
WET...ALTHOUGH STORMS OVER ZONES 455 AND 457 WILL TEND TO BE
HYBRID STORMS WITH THE CHANCE FOR DRY LIGHTNING ON THE EDGES OF
STORMS...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS IN THE CENTRAL CORES. GO
FURTHER NORTH AND THE STORMS BECOME WETTER...UNTIL YOU GET TO FAR
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND VERY LITTLE TO NO
LIGHTNING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING THURSDAY.
NOTE...CONFIDENCE IN HAVING ***NO*** LIGHTNING IN NORTHERN NEVADA
TONIGHT IS 50-50. HAVE FORECAST NONE...BUT AM READY TO UPDATE
FORECAST IF NECESSARY TO ADD LIGHTNING. THURSDAY STAYS WET BUT A
LITTLE DRIER AND SO RISK OF DRY LIGHTNING INCREASES SLIGHTLY.
FRIDAY APPEARS DRY AND WARMER...WITH REDUCED RH. WINDS WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...APART FROM THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

98/96/96/98

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
226 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

NVZ037-062215-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
226 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL EUREKA COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM PDT...

AT 222 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GARDEN PASS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   GARDEN PASS...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

IN ADDITION...THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR
LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 4012 11627 3984 11581 3972 11628 3982 11637
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 231DEG 11KT 3983 11621

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
229 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

NVZ035-039-062215-
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-WHITE PINE COUNTY NV-
229 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN WHITE PINE
AND SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM PDT...

AT 226 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RUBY LAKE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL SOUTHERN ELKO COUNTY JUST EAST OF RUBY LAKE...

&&

LAT...LON 4038 11536 4028 11505 4007 11531 4009 11547
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 208DEG 20KT 4013 11536

JR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
246 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

NVZ033-039-062245-
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY NV-SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY NV-
246 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM PDT/445 PM MDT/...

AT 242 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 24 MILES SOUTH OF WEST WENDOVER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. DIME SIZE HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THIS STORM
COULD AFFECT WEST WENDOVER AND US 93 ALTERNATE.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  RURAL SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY SOUTH OF WEST WENDOVER

LAT...LON 4031 11429 4046 11443 4090 11405 4089 11403 4071 11403
4044 11404 4042 11403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 235DEG 7KT 4044 11426

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
325 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

NVZ037-062315-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
325 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LANDER COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM PDT...

AT 322 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF AUSTIN...MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   MOUNT CALLAGHAN...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3982 11711 3981 11670 3955 11680 3957 11706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 176DEG 7KT 3963 11693

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
328 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

NVZ037-062315-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-
328 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN EUREKA COUNTY UNTIL 415
PM PDT...

AT 326 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR EUREKA AIRPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EUREKA AIRPORT...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 11592 3958 11581 3950 11608 3964 11614
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 246DEG 6KT 3962 11599

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
354 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

NVZ040-070000-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY NV-
354 PM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY UNTIL 500
PM PDT...

AT 354 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES SOUTH OF GABBS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN CAUSING LOCAL FLOODING IS ALSO
LIKELY. GET TO HIGHER GROUND...AND STAY AWAY FROM THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  POLE LINE ROAD...

&&

LAT...LON 3851 11774 3867 11792 3885 11777 3860 11746
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 235DEG 3KT 3861 11779

BB