Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
200 AM PDT WED AUG 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEVADA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL FLOODING MOST LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. DRIER AIR WILL RESULT IN
REDUCED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY. MUCH DRIER WEATHER WILL
RETURN TO NEVADA THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND THURSDAY.

UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER NEVADA HAS INTERACTED WITH RICH MONSOON
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS NEVADA OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS. WIDESPREAD WRAPAROUND RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS NW ELKO
COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING, ROTATING SOUTH FROM IDAHO AROUND THE
WEAK UPPER LOW. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY, ADDING TO THE 2-4 INCHES THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. AS
SUCH, EXTENDED THE FLOOD WARNING THROUGH AT LEAST NOON FOR OWHYEE,
MOUNTAIN CITY, JARBIDGE, WILDHORSE AREAS. ROCK/MUD SLIDES WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY AS PERSISTENT
RAIN FALLS ON SATURATED SOILS.

EXTREMELY UNUSUAL AUGUST FOG WILL BE FOUND IN SOME VALLEYS THROUGH
SUNRISE. ELKO AIRPORT REPORTING 1/2 MILE IN DENSE FOG AT 1 AM.
WITH THE ABNORMALLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME CLEARING, WILL
MENTION PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT HAS RESULTED IN THE FLOODING WILL BEGIN TO
FRACTURE TODAY, WITH THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING AND THE QUALITY OF
THE MONSOON MOISTURE DEGRADING. THAT SAID, PW REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY
HIGH TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM ANY CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW NEVADA. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR
WINNEMUCCA THIS AFTERNOON ARE STILL LOADED WITH MOISTURE, PW NEAR
1 INCH, AND QUITE UNSTABLE WITH LIFTED INDEX TO -4. GFS
INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE ALSO QUITE EXTENSIVE, WITH LIFTED INDEX OF
-2 TO -3C ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NAM
SUGGESTS RAIN WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AN AUSTIN-EUREKA-RUBY MOUNTAINS-WENDOVER LINE BY 5 PM. GIVEN THESE
PARAMETERS, THE FACT THAT THE SOILS ARE SATURATED IN MANY AREAS,
AND THE PUBLIC AWARENESS OF FLOODING IS VERY HIGH RIGHT NOW AFTER
YESTERDAY, ELECTED TO ISSUE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON TO
8 PM FOR ONE MORE DAY. THIS FLASH FLOOD WATCH DOES NOT INCLUDE NYE
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES WHERE DRIER AIR WILL BE MUCH QUICKER IN
SQUASHING CONVECTION. IN FACT, GFS SHOWS IMPRESSIVE DRYING OVER
NYE COUNTY WITH PW PLUNGING TO 0.25 INCH EAST OF TONOPAH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY WELL BELOW AUGUST NORMALS,
WITH MOST VALLEYS STUCK IN THE 70S, EVEN COOLER THAN THAT
BENEATH THE PERSISTENT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY.

THURSDAY...UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD, CENTERING OVER THE
GREAT SALT LAKE BY 5 PM. ATMOSPHERE DRIES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH PW
FALLING TO THE 0.50-0.70 RANGE. WITH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY FROM
CONVECTION MUCH REDUCED, HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL NOT BE NEEDED THURSDAY. MARGINAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA BEHIND THE UTAH
TROUGH, SO CONTINUED A MENTION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THURSDAY. HIGHEST COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
SEEN ON PREVIOUS DAYS. WITH THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND RAIN,
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND WITH SEVERAL DEGREES OF WARMING
THURSDAY, WITH MANY VALLEYS BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TURNER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS DRIER
WITH LATEST MODEL RUN FOR THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS IN AGREEMENT
WITH A SHORT WAVE ALONG THE WEST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES FRIDAY...WHILE DRIER AIR
GETS PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES. MODELS INDICATE LINGERING
PRECIP MAINLY ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE LOW
IN MODELS THERE AFTER. GFS STRONGEST WITH UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
OREGON SATURDAY MORNING ...WHILE EC WEAKENS THE SHORTWAVE. BY
SATURDAY MORNING EC AND GFS QUITE DIFFERENT. EC KEEPS WETTER
PATTERN OVER THE CWA WHILE GFS AND THE GEM DRIES OUT THE EASTERN
ZONES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE GFS KEEPING MOST OF THE SHOWERS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES NEXT WEEKEND. BY MONDAY...DRIER AIR MOVES IN
MOST OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...DEPENDING WHERE THE FINAL POSITION OF
THE UPPER LOW ENDS UP...EXTREME WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY MAY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS ALL DIFFERENT TUESDAY SO HAVE KEPT
DAY 6 AND 7 DRY AT THIS TIME.  JH

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MORNING FOG AT KEKO AND KWMC AS SKIES CLEAR
SOME AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO
NEAR 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN BY THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACROSS
CENTRAL NV ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE KELY
TERMINAL THROUGH 03Z. KTPH WILL BE VFR AS SKIES CLEAR.  JH

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN AND NW NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LAL OF 4.
WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY WITH HIGH
CWRS. EXPECT PW TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO KEEP MOST STORMS
WET ACROSS ELKO/HUMBOLDT COUNTIES. MOISTURE DECREASES SHARPLY
ACROSS NYE AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH PW FALLING
TO LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. RAINFALL FROM STORMS ACROSS FWZ 455 AND
457 WILL BE MUCH LESS EFFICIENT THAN SEEN PREVIOUS DAYS, WITH SOME
DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES PLAUSIBLE. VERY WET FUELS WILL MINIMIZE THE
NEW FIRE IGNITION RISK.

THURSDAY...MOISTURE DECREASES FURTHER FOR ALL FWZ, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN FWZ.
AGAIN, WITH RAINFALL EFFICIENCY DECREASING, DRY LIGHTING STRIKE
WILL BE INCREASING, BUT WITH WET FUELS, CONCERN IS MINIMAL.

TURNER

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON PDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
HUMBOLDT COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY
AND NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT
RANGE...SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

99/87/87/99

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
925 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

NVZ035-037-060530-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-WHITE PINE
COUNTY NV-
925 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN EUREKA AND
WESTERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM PDT...

AT 924 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHEAST
OF EUREKA TO 25 MILES EAST OF PINTO SUMMIT TO 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PINTO SUMMIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   HAMILTON...
   ROBINSON SUMMIT...
   LITTLE ANTELOPE SUMMIT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 11544 3961 11489 3939 11496 3919 11562
      3935 11557 3963 11584
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 243DEG 22KT 3960 11566 3939 11546
          3925 11551

JRM

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>