Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
750 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND THE AREA WILL BECOME DRIER
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.UPDATE...UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECAST PRODUCTS, IN AN ATTEMPT TO
MATCH RADAR TRENDS. THREAT OF CONVECTION HAS ENDED FOR MUCH OF NE
NEVADA FOR THIS EVENING. BAND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION FROM EUREKA
TO NEAR TONOPAH PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING, NUMEROUS LIGHTNING, AND
EVEN SMALL HAIL. VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN
NEVADA APPEARS TO BE THE CULPRIT FOR INITIATING THIS ACTIVITY. 00Z
NAM INITIALIZED WELL, AND SPREADS THESE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEVADA, INTO WHITE PINE COUNTY, THROUGH MIDNIGHT. INCREASED POP
GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA, FROM TONOPAH TO DUCKWATER TO
PERHAPS ELY.

TURNER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 241 PM /

SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND THE AREA WILL BECOME DRIER
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY WHERE SOME HEATING
HAS OCCURRED. CAPE WILL APPROACH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WHERE SOME
HEATING IS OCCURRING WITH PW'S UP TO 1.25" ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH PW'S
AROUND .75". THESE STORMS ARE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. OPTED TO NOT EXTEND FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TOMORROW ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA COULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLASH FLOODING BUT DID
NOT THINK THREAT WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A WATCH. TONIGHT THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH
RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE WITH POCKETS OF
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AND HUMBOLDT
COUNTY.

WEDNESDAY THE LOW PRESSURE WILL STILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA WITH AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH PW'S OF AN INCH OR BETTER TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA WITH PW'S OF .50 TO .75" ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
WHERE LESS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.

THURSDAY THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST
WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEVADA IN ELKO
COUNTY. PW'S WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE .75 IN NORTHEAST NEVADA WITH
LOWER PW'S ELSEWHERE SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS
FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE AIRMASS DRIES AND
BECOME MORE STABLE.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN NV
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES CROP UP BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. GFS
HOLDS ON TO SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHEAST NV MONDAY
WHILE THE EURO BRINGS A SLUG OF MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NV FROM THE SOUTH AROUND FOUR CORNERS HIGH. THE GFS WAITS UNTIL
TUESDAY TO BRING UP THIS MOISTURE BY WHICH TIME THE EURO PUSHES THE
MOISTURE EAST OF NEVADA.

AVIATION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO NRN NV THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL DROP TO MVFR UNDER THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. ACROSS CENTRAL NV
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE KELY TERMINAL
THROUGH 03Z.

FIRE WEATHER...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH WETTING RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA WITH DRIER
AIR MOVING INTO CENTRAL NEVADA AS WE APPROACH WEDNESDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR HUMBOLDT
COUNTY...NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY...NORTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND
NORTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...RUBY MOUNTAINS/EAST HUMBOLDT RANGE...
SOUTH CENTRAL ELKO COUNTY...SOUTHEASTERN ELKO COUNTY...
SOUTHWESTERN ELKO COUNTY.

&&

99/99

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
653 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

NVZ040-060245-
NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY NV-
653 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NYE COUNTY UNTIL 745 PM
PDT...

AT 651 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TONOPAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   TONOPAH...
   U.S. HIGHWAY 6...U.S. HIGHWAY 95
   STATE HIGHWAY 376...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3816 11734 3832 11721 3813 11686 3804 11705
      3804 11723
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 226DEG 4KT 3805 11727

TURNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
925 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

NVZ035-037-060530-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY NV-WHITE PINE
COUNTY NV-
925 PM PDT TUE AUG 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EXTREME EASTERN EUREKA AND
WESTERN WHITE PINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM PDT...

AT 924 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHEAST
OF EUREKA TO 25 MILES EAST OF PINTO SUMMIT TO 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PINTO SUMMIT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
   HAMILTON...
   ROBINSON SUMMIT...
   LITTLE ANTELOPE SUMMIT...

IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A
STURDY BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 11544 3961 11489 3939 11496 3919 11562
      3935 11557 3963 11584
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 243DEG 22KT 3960 11566 3939 11546
          3925 11551

JRM

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