Alert archive / Kentucky / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Jackson, KY

July 27, 2014McCreary County, Pulaski County, Wayne County, Kentucky

NWS Jackson, KY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 27, 2014, 4:56 PM EDT for McCreary County, Pulaski County, Wayne County, Kentucky. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 27, 2014, 4:56 PM EDT (20:56 UTC)
Expired: Jul 27, 2014, 6:00 PM EDT
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, KY
Area: Storm-based polygon
Tornado: Possible
Hail: 1.5 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties McCreary County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Wayne County, KY

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 135 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 27, 1:00 PM EDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	11 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 195 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1964 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 768 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 35 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 117 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 132 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.7
Supercell composite: 2.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 27, 4:41 PM EDT, 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 4:41 PM EDT, 15 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
441 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WAS ONGOING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MAIN THREAT
HAS BEEN LARGE HAIL...WITH REPORTS UP TO SOFTBALL SIZE SO FAR. MODELS
HAVE NOT HANDLED THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL AT ALL TODAY. HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THE CURRENT RADAR ACTIVITY FOR HIGH POPS...BLENDING TO
POPS FOR TONIGHT WHICH ARE HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE THE
THREAT OF PRECIP PERSISTS THE LONGEST TONIGHT BEFORE STABILIZATION
TAKES PLACE FROM NW TO SE. SEVERE WX THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH STRONG INSTABILITY AND AMPLE SHEAR. THE SHEAR WILL
BECOME LESS DIRECTIONAL AND MORE SPEED AS TIME GOES BY. IN
ADDITION...VERY DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID LEVELS. THESE
FACTORS WOULD SUGGEST HAIL CONTINUING TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS BEING MORE SURFACE BASED LATE IN THE
DAY NOW...WINDS AND EVEN TORNADOES STILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE GETTING SCOURED AWAY ON
MONDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS TO POP
UP ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE
PROBABLE IN THE NE PART OF THE AREA WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE
COOLEST. MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY PREVENT ANY PRECIP IN OUR FAR SW...AND
WILL LIKELY PREVENT THUNDER ELSEWHERE. ANY PRECIP WILL DIE OUT MONDAY
NIGHT AS HEATING IS LOST AND THE MID LEVEL CAP STRENGTHENS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA
TO FLORIDA. THERE IS AN UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER WEST TEXAS WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING INTO ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...THE BACK END OF
THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW
WILL STAY QUASI STATIONARY AND WITH TIME THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES
A LITTLE TO THE WEST. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT TO POSSIBLY THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH THIS UPPER HIGH IN
PLACE...THE SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE IT WILL BE SWELTERING AND DRY OUT WEST.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...SO PRETTY MUCH WENT WITH THE MODEL
BLEND AND THEN MADE SOME CORRECTION DUE TO ELEVATION DIFFERENCES. ON
THE DAYS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST...THE STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KY...MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
THESE STORMS HAVE SHOWN A DIMINISHING TREND AS THEY HEAD INTO THE
JACKSON CWA...BUT SOME LIGHTNING AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE STILL
PRESENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA. EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN AND MAYBE A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT THE TAF SITES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS SEEM TO BE MAINTAINING VFR STATUS /OR
BORDERLINE MVFR/...AND RAIN SEEMS TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT LITTLE
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE EXPECTED.

MAIN FOCUS FOR TAF PERIOD WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE STILL
POINTING AT AN EVENT THAT IS RARE FOR EASTERN KY IN JULY. LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE 06Z TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY SEEM TO
HAVE A GOOD GENERAL IDEA ON THE POTENTIAL THREATS. EXPECTING MOSTLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR THE AREA...HOWEVER SOME OF STRONGER STORMS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING THE VSBY TO AROUND A MILE AND PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KTS. THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS...WHICH WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS WELL. KEPT THE TEMPO GROUP IN THE TAFS TO
REFLECT THE MOST LIKELY TIMES THAT THE STORMS WILL BE IN THE
AREA...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYTIME BY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH THIS EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
DEVELOPING SITUATION AND MAKE UPDATES FOR THE TAF SITES AS NEEDED
ONCE STORMS BEGIN INITIATING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...JMW

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 4:57 AM EDT, 11 hours 59 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
457 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-281200-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING...
OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO...
WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...
PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...
CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON...
HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG...
INEZ...PIKEVILLE
457 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH
POTENTIAL THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE INTO
THIS EVENING. THE MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...AS WELL
AS ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BETTER
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD ALL OF EASTERN KY
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN ANY OCCURRENCES OF HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

JMW

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 27, 4:31 PM EDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
431 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             BEAR BRANCH             37.16N 83.55W
07/27/2014  E4.25 INCH       LESLIE             KY   911 CALL CENTER

&&

TBREWER

Local storm report, Jul 27, 4:36 PM EDT, 20 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT STERLING          38.06N 83.95W
07/27/2014                   MONTGOMERY         KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN NEAR TENNY AVE.

&&

JVM

Local storm report, Jul 27, 4:40 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
440 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     THOUSANDSTICKS          37.19N 83.43W
07/27/2014                   LESLIE             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN. POWER LINES DOWN ON RESIDENCE.

&&

JVM

Local storm report, Jul 27, 4:41 PM EDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
441 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     HAIL             1 SW HYDEN              37.15N 83.39W
07/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       LESLIE             KY   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

JVM

Local storm report, Jul 27, 4:42 PM EDT, 14 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
442 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOZELLE                 37.00N 83.40W
07/27/2014                   LESLIE             KY   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

JVM

Local storm report, Jul 27, 4:43 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
443 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             BRONSTON                36.99N 84.62W
07/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       PULASKI            KY   PUBLIC

&&

JVM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, KY issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 27, 10:24 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill, Jackson, Lee, Owsley	22 min
Jul 27, 12:06 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Estill, Powell	24 min
Jul 27, 12:13 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Estill, Lee, Powell, Wolfe	4 hr
Jul 27, 12:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Estill, Lee, Owsley, Powell, Wolfe	51 min
Jul 27, 12:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Menifee, Powell, Wolfe	23 min
Jul 27, 12:38 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Estill, Lee	37 min
Jul 27, 12:58 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt	4 hr
Jul 27, 1:03 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bath, Montgomery	4 hr
Jul 27, 1:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Breathitt, Knott, Lee, Magoffin, Owsley, Perry	41 min
Jul 27, 1:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bath, Menifee, Montgomery	46 min
Jul 27, 1:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Laurel, Rockcastle	51 min
Jul 27, 1:36 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt, Knott, Perry	5 hr
Jul 27, 1:52 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Breathitt, Magoffin, Menifee, Morgan, Wolfe	4 hr
Jul 27, 2:02 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Laurel	28 min
Jul 27, 2:03 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Laurel, Owsley, Rockcastle	4 hr
Jul 27, 2:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Magoffin, Menifee, Morgan, Wolfe	25 min
Jul 27, 2:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Knott, Letcher, Perry	52 min
Jul 27, 2:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne	46 min
Jul 27, 2:17 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Letcher	3 hr
Jul 27, 2:24 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Jackson, Laurel, Rockcastle	4 hr
Jul 27, 2:28 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Wayne	32 min
Jul 27, 2:30 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, Whitley	4 hr
Jul 27, 2:37 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Laurel, Rockcastle	38 min
Jul 27, 2:56 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	McCreary, Wayne	49 min
Jul 27, 2:59 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Wayne	4 hr
Jul 27, 3:11 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Leslie, Perry	34 min
Jul 27, 3:26 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	McCreary, Whitley	31 min
Jul 27, 3:28 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Clay, Harlan, Leslie, Letcher, Perry	4 hr
Jul 27, 3:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Pulaski	46 min
Jul 27, 3:39 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay, Leslie	51 min
Jul 27, 3:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Clay, Jackson, Laurel, Owsley	50 min
Jul 27, 4:03 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne	42 min
Jul 27, 4:05 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay, Jackson	25 min
Jul 27, 4:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Harlan, Leslie, Letcher	49 min
Jul 27, 4:15 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Harlan, Leslie	45 min
Jul 27, 4:19 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	Clay	4 hr
Jul 27, 4:25 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne	35 min
Jul 27, 4:30 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	Clay, Leslie, Perry	45 min
Jul 27, 4:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, Whitley	39 min
Jul 27, 4:52 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	McCreary, Whitley	38 min
Jul 27, 5:05 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne, Whitley	6 hr
Jul 27, 5:10 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	JKL	McCreary, Pulaski, Wayne	35 min
Jul 27, 5:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Harlan, Leslie, Letcher, Perry	48 min
Jul 27, 5:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Bell, Whitley	41 min
Jul 27, 5:34 PM EDT	Areal Flood Advisory	JKL	Bell, Harlan, Knox, McCreary, Whitley	3 hr
Jul 27, 7:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JKL	Fleming, Rowan	51 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kentucky, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.