Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
243 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MID 70 DEWPOINTS ALONG
WITH MID 90S TEMPS ARE YIELDING CAPES NEAR 4000 J/KG AND PROLIFIC
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS AT PRESENT. THESE
VALUES...ALONG WITH VERTICAL TOTALS NEAR 28 AND DCAPES NEAR 1000 J/KG
ARE SERVING TO ENHANCE THE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

NEAR TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS ANCHORED OVER AR/W TN. THESE
FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF THE PRESENT WEATHER
SCENARIO WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
OUTFLOWS FROM THAT CONVECTION MOVING SOUTHEAST TO INITIATE DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THIS INCREASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
TO BE A GOOD BET BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS LOW/MID 70S DEWPOINTS
WILL YIELD CAPES FROM 4000-5000 J/KG AS MAXES WARM INTO THE LOW/MID
90S. THESE TEMP/DEWPOINT COMBINATIONS WILL ALSO ALLOW HEAT INDICES TO
JUMP TO THE 100-105 RANGE. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE HWO.

MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH CHANGES ARE ON THE HORIZON. MID LEVEL HIGH
CENTER...WHICH HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...WILL BEGIN RIDGING WEST MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS IN THE EAST AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MAKE A RUN TOWARD
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION LOOKS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH...INSTEAD OF WANING AFTER THE LOSS
OF HEATING. A NICE AIRMASS CHANGE LOOKS POSSIBLE MOVING INTO MID
WEEK./26/

.LONG TERM...FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM (TUE-SAT)...BY MID
WEEK...LOOK FOR A MORE QUIET REGIME WITH LOWER HUMIDITY BEFORE WARMER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL REALLY
TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION BY TUE WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
MID LEVEL DRY PUSH MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL SERVE TO
HELP THE WEAK SFC FRONT TO MAY HEADWAY WELL INTO THE CWA ON
TUE...THEN BRING SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN ITS WAKE. PRECIP
ACTIVITY ON TUE WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH HALF AND MOST
LIKELY EARLY IN THE DAY PERIOD. AS WE GO INTO AND THROUGH MID/LATE
WEEK...THE NW FLOW PATTERN WILL RELAX AND RIDING LOOKS TO BUILD OVER
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME
NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS FOR WED/THU ALONG WITH
LESS HUMID READINGS. BY FRI/SAT...A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH MS THIS
AFTN WHICH HAVE RECORDED MVFR AND IFR CATEGORIES AT SEVERAL TAF
SITES WITH 30-40 KT GUSTS. WILL CONTINUE TO AMEND ACCORDINGLY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY WILL CLEAR CENTRAL SITES
NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITH KMEI BY 21-22Z AND KHBG LATER INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT 09-13Z WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCT/NUM TSRA DURING SUNDAY AFTN. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       73  94  74  94 /  22  40  32  54
MERIDIAN      73  94  72  95 /  36  31  39  53
VICKSBURG     73  94  74  94 /  16  41  29  46
HATTIESBURG   75  94  75  95 /  31  46  21  53
NATCHEZ       73  92  73  93 /  20  49  18  51
GREENVILLE    73  93  75  95 /  16  39  24  43
GREENWOOD     73  93  74  94 /  17  32  27  52

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

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MSZ063>066-072>074-092220-
MARION MS-LAWRENCE MS-LAMAR MS-JONES MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-FORREST MS-
COVINGTON MS-
452 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
452 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
WAS LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF OVETT TO 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HOLLY SPRINGS AT 452 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. HEAVY RAINS
CAN CAUSE PONDING OF ROADWAYS AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN COVINGTON...NORTHERN FORREST...SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON DAVIS...SOUTHERN JONES...NORTHERN LAMAR...SOUTHEASTERN
LAWRENCE AND NORTHERN MARION COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3124 9005 3132 9005 3133 9009 3138 9010
      3167 8897 3158 8893 3144 8894 3143 8913
      3133 8914 3115 9001
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 292DEG 4KT 3155 8898 3127 9001

MRM

LAZ026-MSZ060-092300-
ADAMS MS-CONCORDIA LA-
459 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
459 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER ACME AT 458 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN ADAMS COUNTY...AND SOUTHWESTERN
CONCORDIA PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3104 9165 3104 9173 3110 9171 3114 9173
      3119 9169 3120 9174 3122 9179 3127 9183
      3129 9183 3135 9176 3122 9157 3111 9162
      3107 9157 3102 9165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 320DEG 9KT 3129 9179

ARZ075-MSZ034-092320-
CHICOT AR-WASHINGTON MS-
539 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
539 PM CDT SAT AUG 9 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF LAKE VILLAGE AT 537
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL WASHINGTON AND EAST CENTRAL CHICOT COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3334 9082 3312 9095 3326 9127 3344 9124
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 284DEG 9KT 3333 9116

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