Flash Flood Warning 95, NWS Jackson, MS

663 
WGUS74 KJAN 110017
FFSJAN

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
717 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

MSC001-037-110027-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.W.0095.000000T0000Z-140811T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ADAMS MS-FRANKLIN MS-
717 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR FRANKLIN AND
CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES...

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS
MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3154 9144 3157 9140 3159 9140 3160 9144
      3161 9144 3161 9078 3136 9078 3136 9122
      3137 9124 3136 9125 3136 9145

$$

MRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOWER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A GRADUAL PEPPERING
IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER THE DELTA REGION. SEE NO REASON WHY
COVERAGE WILL NOT CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO ALLOW SPRAWLING
RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...TO SHIFT WEST AND TROFFINESS TO OCCUR OVER THE EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF DRIER AIR TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT.

WHILE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO WANE DURING THE EVENING
TONIGHT...APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SPARK A FEW STORMS
OVER THE DELTA BY MONDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION MONDAY...BUT IT IS NOT
UNTIL AFTERNOON THAT UPDRAFTS LOOK TO BECOME MORE ROBUST. VERTICAL
TOTALS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT SHOOT
UP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS BY
AFTERNOON AS MID 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SURFACE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. GFS ALSO SHOWING SOME
DRYING IN MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB WHICH SLHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHER DCAPE VALUES. COUPLE THIS WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE MICROBURST POTENTIAL LOOKS DECENT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DRY AIR WILL LAG BEHIND BOUNDARY SOMEWHAT TUESDAY...THUS EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS
MED RANGE/LONG TERM WILL BE THE EVOLVING NW FLOW PATTERN AND THE LESS
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT FOR WED-THU. WE THEN
SHIFT TO WARMER CONDITIONS AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER INTO THE CWA WITH A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS OVERALL (PWS .8 TO 1.5 IN) SETTLING OVER THE AREA FOR
WED INTO THU. DUE TO THIS...COOLER THAN AVG MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
WED INTO FRI MORNINGS. LOOK FOR QUITE A BIT OF MID 60S FOR LOWS
DURING THAT TIME. AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIEST AIR WILL GET. THIS COULD RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. VARIOUS
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AND IT WILL BE BEST TO CARRY SOME LOW END
POPS UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP DRY
AIR WILL PUSH.

BY LATER ON FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO MAKE A RETURN AND RESULT IN SOME
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM...SUPPORTING
WARMER CONDITIONS. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SCT/NUM TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH
GREATEST CONCENTRATION EAST OF I-55 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MS
RIVER. BRIEF MVFR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH TSRA WITH KGLH/KGWO LIKELY
TO BE IMPACTED NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TSRA IS MORE ISOLATED FOR EAST
SITES WITH LOWER RISK OF DIRECT IMPACT THROUGH AFTN. SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF STORMS BUT SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OF 20-40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STORMS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE/LIKELY OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS FOR KHBG AND KGLH. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  95  73  92 /  18  51  48  21
MERIDIAN      71  95  72  92 /  32  47  52  26
VICKSBURG     72  94  72  92 /  15  57  47  16
HATTIESBURG   73  94  76  93 /  35  43  25  39
NATCHEZ       73  93  72  90 /  15  48  33  29
GREENVILLE    73  94  72  90 /  21  39  29   8
GREENWOOD     74  93  71  91 /  16  38  30   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
112015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON

THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED
TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTSIDE IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALLEN

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 115
 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
 DEGREES FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
HIGH...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 110 TO 114 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 109 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 100 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR ONE TO THREE
 DAYS.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ061-102245-
FRANKLIN MS-
516 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
516 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUDE AT 516 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3159 9096 3156 9076 3134 9079 3134 9098
      3133 9100 3134 9102 3133 9103 3133 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 011DEG 23KT 3148 9088

MSZ048-054-055-102320-
SIMPSON MS-HINDS MS-COPIAH MS-
548 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
548 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOPEWELL AT 548
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN COPIAH...SOUTHEASTERN HINDS AND NORTHWESTERN
SIMPSON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3207 9034 3210 9024 3205 9023 3205 9017
      3198 9006 3188 9030
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 346DEG 10KT 3205 9027

MSZ060-061-102320-
ADAMS MS-FRANKLIN MS-
549 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
549 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE
HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF
KINGSTON TO 3 MILES WEST OF BUDE AT 549 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN FRANKLIN AND CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE
STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3134 9115 3135 9121 3137 9122 3135 9132
      3153 9145 3155 9084 3135 9071 3134 9098
      3133 9099 3134 9102 3133 9103 3132 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 331DEG 9KT 3146 9129 3147 9090

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     FLASH FLOOD      YAZOO CITY              32.86N 90.41W
08/10/2014                   YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MAJOR STREET FLOODING. MOST OF THE DOWNTOWN STREETS ARE
            UNDERWATER.

&&

AWEBER

MSZ044-102330-
LEAKE MS-
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF LENA AT 600 PM
CDT. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN LEAKE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3259 8945 3257 8947 3258 8972 3272 8973
      3277 8965
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 272DEG 2KT 3264 8967

MSZ038-045-046-102330-
WINSTON MS-NESHOBA MS-KEMPER MS-
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
602 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES EAST OF NANIH WAIYA AT 602 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN KEMPER...NORTHEASTERN NESHOBA AND SOUTHEASTERN
WINSTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3283 8875 3283 8900 3298 8896 3298 8881
      3293 8881 3292 8875
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 352DEG 8KT 3290 8889