Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION HAS BEEN
SLOWER TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BUT A GRADUAL PEPPERING
IS BEGINNING TO OCCUR OVER THE DELTA REGION. SEE NO REASON WHY
COVERAGE WILL NOT CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

AMPLIFYING MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO ALLOW SPRAWLING
RIDGE...CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...TO SHIFT WEST AND TROFFINESS TO OCCUR OVER THE EAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF DRIER AIR TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT.

WHILE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO WANE DURING THE EVENING
TONIGHT...APPROACHING SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SPARK A FEW STORMS
OVER THE DELTA BY MONDAY MORNING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL ALLOW FOR AN EARLY START TO CONVECTION MONDAY...BUT IT IS NOT
UNTIL AFTERNOON THAT UPDRAFTS LOOK TO BECOME MORE ROBUST. VERTICAL
TOTALS EARLY IN THE DAY WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...BUT SHOOT
UP INTO THE UPPER 20S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS BY
AFTERNOON AS MID 70 DEWPOINTS POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SURFACE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. GFS ALSO SHOWING SOME
DRYING IN MODEL SOUNDINGS BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB WHICH SLHOULD
ALLOW FOR HIGHER DCAPE VALUES. COUPLE THIS WITH INVERTED V SOUNDINGS
IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND THE MICROBURST POTENTIAL LOOKS DECENT OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

DRY AIR WILL LAG BEHIND BOUNDARY SOMEWHAT TUESDAY...THUS EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO STILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING./26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS
MED RANGE/LONG TERM WILL BE THE EVOLVING NW FLOW PATTERN AND THE LESS
HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK FRONT FOR WED-THU. WE THEN
SHIFT TO WARMER CONDITIONS AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR TO FILTER INTO THE CWA WITH A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS OVERALL (PWS .8 TO 1.5 IN) SETTLING OVER THE AREA FOR
WED INTO THU. DUE TO THIS...COOLER THAN AVG MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED
WED INTO FRI MORNINGS. LOOK FOR QUITE A BIT OF MID 60S FOR LOWS
DURING THAT TIME. AS FOR PRECIP POTENTIAL...NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIEST AIR WILL GET. THIS COULD RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH DEEP
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION ACROSS THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. VARIOUS
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS AND IT WILL BE BEST TO CARRY SOME LOW END
POPS UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE DEVELOPS ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP DRY
AIR WILL PUSH.

BY LATER ON FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...LOOK FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPER MOISTURE TO MAKE A RETURN AND RESULT IN SOME
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES. LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM...SUPPORTING
WARMER CONDITIONS. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...SCT/NUM TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED AS EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH
GREATEST CONCENTRATION EAST OF I-55 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE MS
RIVER. BRIEF MVFR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED WITH TSRA WITH KGLH/KGWO LIKELY
TO BE IMPACTED NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. TSRA IS MORE ISOLATED FOR EAST
SITES WITH LOWER RISK OF DIRECT IMPACT THROUGH AFTN. SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF STORMS BUT SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OF 20-40 KT COULD OCCUR INVOF STORMS. STORMS WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS. MVFR POSSIBLE/LIKELY OVERNIGHT
WITH PATCHY GROUND FOG AND LOW STRATUS FOR KHBG AND KGLH. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  95  73  92 /  18  51  48  21
MERIDIAN      71  95  72  92 /  32  47  52  26
VICKSBURG     72  94  72  92 /  15  57  47  16
HATTIESBURG   73  94  76  93 /  35  43  25  39
NATCHEZ       73  93  72  90 /  15  48  33  29
GREENVILLE    73  94  72  90 /  21  39  29   8
GREENWOOD     74  93  71  91 /  16  38  30   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
112015-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
301 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT

EXCESSIVE HEAT
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AFTERNOON

THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS
COULD BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=2)

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH 100 TO 105 DEGREES AT MANY LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND WELL AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED
TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF WORKING OUTSIDE IN THESE
CONDITIONS.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ALLEN

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*EXCESSIVE HEAT*
EXTREME...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 115
 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
 DEGREES FOR 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
HIGH...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 110 TO 114 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
ELEVATED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX 105 TO 109 DEGREES OR MAXIMUM HEAT
 INDEX GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 100 DEGREES FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE
 DAYS.
LIMITED...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX NEAR 105 DEGREES FOR ONE TO THREE
 DAYS.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ073-074-102110-
LAMAR MS-FORREST MS-
326 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
326 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF RAWLS SPRINGS AT 326 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT
5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. CAUTION SHOULD BE TAKEN
WITH PONDING OF HEAVY RAINS ON ROADWAYS WITH LOW VISIBILITIES.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN FORREST AND NORTHEASTERN LAMAR COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3142 8932 3125 8939 3133 8947 3142 8944
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 288DEG 5KT 3137 8941

MRM

LAZ007-102110-
MOREHOUSE LA-
327 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
327 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF BASTROP AT 326 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL MOREHOUSE PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3291 9187 3282 9158 3278 9160 3277 9159
      3273 9161 3271 9164 3269 9163 3261 9166
      3261 9169 3275 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 296DEG 16KT 3279 9181

LAZ025-102120-
TENSAS LA-
334 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER NEWLIGHT AT 333 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL STORMS IN THE AREA MAY ALSO PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL TENSAS PARISH SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3218 9143 3198 9117 3194 9119 3192 9118
      3187 9126 3183 9129 3186 9130 3184 9135
      3182 9136 3212 9150
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 323DEG 15KT 3211 9145

MSZ062-102125-
LINCOLN MS-
342 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
342 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER VAUGHN AT 342 PM CDT. THE STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY
REDUCE VISIBILITIES AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3158 9036 3141 9053 3155 9063 3163 9056
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 056DEG 2KT 3156 9056

MSZ027-028-032-037-102130-
ATTALA MS-MONTGOMERY MS-CHOCTAW MS-CARROLL MS-
352 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
352 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM KILMICHAEL TO 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF POSSUMNECK
AT 351 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...WEST CENTRAL CHOCTAW...SOUTHERN
MONTGOMERY AND ATTALA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3358 8957 3351 8950 3346 8950 3346 8945
      3330 8930 3293 8962 3293 8970 3308 8983
      3311 8983 3313 8979 3319 8978 3321 8975
      3324 8985
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 322DEG 18KT 3344 8956 3317 8979

MSZ053-102140-
CLAIBORNE MS-
357 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
357 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF PORT GIBSON AT 357 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAIN MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL CLAIBORNE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3192 9118 3196 9119 3198 9116 3199 9110
      3202 9107 3204 9109 3205 9114 3207 9113
      3205 9110 3206 9108 3197 9085 3184 9093
      3187 9104 3186 9114 3190 9120
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 307DEG 15KT 3195 9107