Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
238 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON UNDERWAY OVER THE CWA AT
THE MOMENT. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND THE LEADING
PERIPHERY OF 300 MB 35 KNOT JET STREAK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE RAP.
THIS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING OVER MAINLY EASTERN HALF WHILE THE WESTERN
PORTION APPEARS TO BE BENEFITTING FROM WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING.

WHILE THE MAJORITY OF EVENING CONVECTION LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEAST...APPROACHING SHORTWAVE OVER EAST TX AND OVERALL
INCREASING TROFFINESS SHOULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO RECUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER ALL AREAS AS ADVERTISED BY MODELS.

AS IS THE CASE TODAY...PW VALUES MONDAY NEAR 2 INCHES WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS AND SLOW MOVEMENT MAY ALLOW
FOR LOCALIZED SHORT TERM PONDING/FLOODING TO OCCUR. NOT GOING TO
RULE OUT A FEW WET MICROBURSTS AS WELL. WHILE VERTICAL TOTALS/LAPSE
RATES ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE MONDAY AS TODAY...PRECIP LOADING MAY
STILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO DRAG DOWN SOME DECENT WIND SPEEDS. DUE
TO EXPECTED SPARSE OCCURRENCE OF THIS...HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE HWO.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING LOOKS TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TUESDAY AS PW
VALUES FALL BACK TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES FOR THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE
SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER...AS A MORE POTENT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID
MS VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
THUS...WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS RUNNING OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTH.

MOS TEMPS WERE GENERALLY AGREEABLE...HOWEVER...SHAVED HIGHS A COUPLE
DEGREES TUESDAY AS MOS CAME IN A LITTLE WARM IN THE MID 90S. /26/

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION
OF THE WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND
PRIMARILY ZONAL. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF...THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS UNLIKELY TO DO MUCH TO
DISCOURAGE THE SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE WHICH IS FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA. 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WED
INTO THURS...WHICH WOULD LIKELY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. POPS WERE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF OUTPUT...WHICH
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER GRASP OF THESE FEATURES.

FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE
ECWMF...INDICATES BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST A DECREASE IN DAILY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BACK TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WOULD STILL BE AROUND...
BUT WITH UPPER FLOW REMAINING WEAK AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING UP
UNDER THE RIDGE...MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE
SUPPRESSED. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF MS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF BUT MAJOR TURBULENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY. SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST OF DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL
TEND TO BE RATHER ERRATIC THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL MS OWING TO MANY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT DUE TO MORE MINOR
DISTURBANCES COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...POCKETS OF MVFR
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BY DAWN MONDAY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
CONSIDERABLE DOWNPOURS TODAY. TOMORROW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MOST FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR. /BB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  89  70  92 /  48  63  21  23
MERIDIAN      70  88  68  91 /  51  74  40  35
VICKSBURG     70  89  69  92 /  37  49  20  19
HATTIESBURG   72  88  71  92 /  46  63  20  29
NATCHEZ       70  87  70  90 /  36  57  19  19
GREENVILLE    71  90  70  91 /  35  52  23  26
GREENWOOD     71  89  70  91 /  36  67  33  26

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
222 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
231930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
222 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
241 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0225 PM     TSTM WND GST     TAYLORSVILLE            31.83N 89.43W
06/22/2014  M70 MPH          SMITH              MS   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF 70MPH WINDS MEASURED IN TAYLORSVILLE.

&&

DCOX

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MSZ038-045-222030-
WINSTON MS-NESHOBA MS-
302 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
302 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF STALLO AT 302 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN NESHOBA AND SOUTH CENTRAL WINSTON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3297 8890 3276 8901 3289 8928 3305 8920
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 293DEG 7KT 3293 8914

JA