Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
152 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...A MORE ACTIVE DAY FOR STORMS IS IN PROGRESS DUE TO
THE LESSENING INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE. THIS ACTIVITY
WHILE A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED THAN FRIDAY IS STILL RATHER SCATTERED
AND WILL POSE ONLY A SMALL SEVERE RISK. THE STORMS SHOULD LAST WELL INTO
THE EVENING AND LIKELY DISSIPATE BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED
BY A WEAK TROF IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO MORE WIDESPRED AND ORGANIZED STORMS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. DESPITE THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION...FLOW THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE WEAK LIMITING THE STRENGTH OF THE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AND AROUND
2 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. POPS WILL RANGE FROM HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY ON SUNDAY.

EXPECT MONDAY TO BE LESS ACTIVE THAN SUNDAY BUT TO CONTINUE TO
FEATURE SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS AS A BROAD MID LEVEL TROF REMAINS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  /SW/

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...IT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE OF AN
ACTIVE WEEK ACROSS THE REGION AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL NOT BE OCCUPYING OUR WEATHER BUT WE WILL INSTEAD BE
LOCATED UNDER GENERAL TROUGHING WITH SOME DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH PW VALUES AROUND
1.9-2 INCHES...HEAVY AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALMOST EVERY DAY AS COOL
500MB TEMPS WILL LEAD TO VERTICAL TOTALS AROUND 25-27C AND SBCAPES
WILL BE SUFFICIENT AOA 3000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY IF WE CAN REACH INTO
THE LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 90S TO START OFF BUT CLOUDS...RAIN AND WET GROUNDS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT HIGHS SLIGHTLY INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WONT PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF WITH READINGS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S AND PERHAPS SOME UPPER 60S. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...HRRR FORECAST VERIFYING WELL AT THE MOMENT WITH QUITE A
BIT OF CONVECTION AROUND. MOST TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED WITH
MAINLY VICINTY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT KJAN/KHKS/KHBG MAY ACTUALLY HAVE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY. THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL LINGER ONCE AGAIN UNTIL AROUND 02Z WITH
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG DEVELOPING THEREAFTER...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY./26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       72  91  71  93 /  22  56  49  45
MERIDIAN      70  91  70  91 /  24  72  69  42
VICKSBURG     70  91  68  93 /  16  45  33  39
HATTIESBURG   72  92  72  91 /  23  56  36  28
NATCHEZ       71  89  70  90 /  21  42  19  18
GREENVILLE    73  92  71  92 /  22  52  37  31
GREENWOOD     71  92  70  91 /  28  60  53  39

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
227 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
221930-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
227 PM CDT SAT JUN 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

2

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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