Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1043 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.UPDATE...DENSE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHIELD SHOWING UP IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME THINNING NOTED
IN LAST COOUPLE OF HOURS. THIS HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF HEATING AND
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KJAN 12Z SOUNDING LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER TODAY. THIS
COULD ALLOW CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AND
COUPLED WITH RISK CATEGORY IN THE WET MICROBURST CHECKLIST...SOME
INCREASED CHANCE OF A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS TODAY. ONLY SMALL
CHANGES ANTICIPATED WITH THE GRIDS.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF BUT
MAJOR TURBULENCE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY. SOME BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST OF DOWNPOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST IN GENERAL. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR SHALLOW FOG POSSIBLE BY DAWN MONDAY IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVE CONSIDERABLE DOWNPOURS TODAY. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BOTH TODAY AND
MONDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTION AND CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS A LITTLE LOWER...UPPER 80S
TO LOWER 90S...COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS.  HOWEVER...THE HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CONVECTION WILL OVERALL REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN...IN ADDITION TO
DEVELOPING ALONG LINGERING AND PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BOTH
TODAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON.  MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
OVERALL FLOW...SHEAR...AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MEAGER AT BEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INSTABILITY REMAINS SUFFICIENT EACH AFTERNOON AND
A STORM OR TWO BRIEFLY REACHING SEVERE LIMITS ISN'T OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT THIS POTENTIAL CURRENLTY LOOKS QUITE LOW. THUS...I'LL
NOT MENTION IT IN THE HWO.

HOWEVER...IF MORNING SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS YIELDS A HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR WET MICROBURSTS...SEVERE WORDING COULD BE INTRODUCED INTO THE
HWO. THAT SAID...GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS TODAY AND
MONDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT SMALL HAIL. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION AS PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES WILL
GENERALLY SIT BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 INCHES. /19/

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...DURING THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK AND PRIMARILY
ZONAL. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF...THOUGH THIS FEATURE IS UNLIKELY TO DO MUCH TO DISCOURAGE THE
SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE WHICH IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE AREA. 00Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS DEPICT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WED INTO THURS...WHICH
WOULD LIKELY SERVE TO ENHANCE PRECIP COVERAGE DURING THAT TIME FRAME.
POPS WERE TRENDED TOWARD ECMWF OUTPUT...WHICH SEEMED TO HAVE A
BETTER GRASP OF THESE FEATURES.

FROM THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE
ECWMF...INDICATES BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST A DECREASE IN DAILY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BACK TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS. ISOLATED PRECIPITATION WOULD STILL BE AROUND...
BUT WITH UPPER FLOW REMAINING WEAK AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WARMING UP
UNDER THE RIDGE...MUCH OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD BE
SUPPRESSED. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       91  70  90  69 /  66  37  63  24
MERIDIAN      91  69  90  68 /  64  48  74  32
VICKSBURG     90  70  89  67 /  56  31  49  20
HATTIESBURG   91  72  90  70 /  67  32  63  24
NATCHEZ       88  70  87  70 /  59  24  57  18
GREENVILLE    92  71  90  69 /  47  28  52  29
GREENWOOD     91  70  90  69 /  51  34  67  35

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
410 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
230915-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
410 AM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

MSZ036-037-042-043-221835-
ATTALA MS-MADISON MS-HOLMES MS-YAZOO MS-
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF VAUGHAN AT 1248
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN NORTHEASTERN YAZOO...SOUTH CENTRAL HOLMES...NORTH CENTRAL
MADISON AND SOUTHWESTERN ATTALA COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM
CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3296 8972 3260 8994 3281 9033 3307 9011
TIME...MOT...LOC 1748Z 263DEG 5KT 3286 9006

7

MSZ026-028-221900-
MONTGOMERY MS-GRENADA MS-
114 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
114 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS JUST NORTH OF WINONA...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF DUCK HILL AT
113 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN GRENADA AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR
THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3349 8950 3336 8957 3350 8979 3362 8979
      3369 8973 3371 8951
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 301DEG 6KT 3357 8970

BYB

MSZ035-036-042-221905-
HUMPHREYS MS-HOLMES MS-YAZOO MS-
123 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
123 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

...SHORT LINE OF STRONG STORMS NORTH OF YAZOO CITY...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL
AND 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
HOWARD TO 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THORNTON AT 121 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL YAZOO...SOUTHERN HOLMES AND SOUTHERN
HUMPHREYS COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3303 8992 3286 9038 3300 9066 3301 9066
      3318 9022
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 301DEG 6KT 3309 9022 3299 9048

BYB

MSZ038-039-046-221915-
WINSTON MS-NOXUBEE MS-KEMPER MS-
129 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY TO NICKEL
SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM VERNON TO SCOOBA
AT 128 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY QUICKLY DROP AN
INCH OF RAIN.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN KEMPER...SOUTHWESTERN NOXUBEE AND SOUTHEASTERN
WINSTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3273 8837 3274 8891 3280 8892 3292 8892
      3292 8894 3301 8895 3296 8838 3273 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1828Z 343DEG 38KT 3287 8879 3277 8853

MSZ057-058-221925-
JASPER MS-CLARKE MS-
139 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
139 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF BARNETT AT 138 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES AND QUICKLY DROP AN INCH OF RAINFALL.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CLARKE AND EAST CENTRAL JASPER COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3203 8870 3184 8881 3197 8911 3213 8901
TIME...MOT...LOC 1838Z 302DEG 10KT 3201 8896

MSZ044-221945-
LEAKE MS-
213 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
213 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND
40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF CARTHAGE AT 213
PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL LEAKE COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3280 8934 3260 8946 3274 8972 3290 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 297DEG 7KT 3278 8958

JA