Severe Thunderstorm Warning 410, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
428 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LINE OF
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS LINE REMAINS WITH THE
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND WE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. IN ADDITION WE HAVE GOTTEN A FEW REPORTS OF QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND EVEN SOME LARGER. SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI. BEHIND THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS TEMPERATURES HAVE
DROPPED SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S WHILE AHEAD OF THE
STORMS READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S CONTINUE. LOCATIONS THAT WERE IN
THE WIND ADVISORY HAVE SINCE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THAT WAS CANCELED A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...AHEAD OF THE LINE
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD GRADIENT WIND SPEEDS BOTH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS.

ROUGH TIMING ESTIMATES THE MAIN LINE SHOULD BE EXITING THE CWA BY
AROUND 8PM WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
LINGERING BEHIND FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE ENDING LATER TONIGHT. THE
PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO HAS BEEN CANCELED AS RAINFALL RATES
HAVE DECREASED IN THE WATCH AREA.COOLER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN AS THE
FRONT PASSES BUT CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A
RATHER SUNNY DAY FOR MOST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PROBABLY THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS COMES AS THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS IT WILL WRAP AROUND SOME STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR US THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE LOWER 70S
AND SOME MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S. /28/

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...FURTHER MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE
CLOSED LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
ENCROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS
POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO COME INTO THE AREA SOMETIME THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THE BOUNDARY PERHAPS HANGING AROUND TO SPUR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE ODDS OF RAIN
IN LATTER PORTION OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MUCH
OFFICIAL MENTION. /BB/

&&

.AVIATION...MIXTURE OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
AS A LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL FOLLOW INITIAL LINE WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE EVENING. CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE
PLACE LATER TONIGHT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR ONCE AGAIN. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       53  70  49  75 /  98   8   7   1
MERIDIAN      59  73  48  76 /  98  17  10   4
VICKSBURG     50  72  45  76 /  59   5   4   0
HATTIESBURG   58  76  49  78 /  98   8   6   2
NATCHEZ       51  73  46  75 /  71   4   4   0
GREENVILLE    53  70  49  75 /  48   9   9   0
GREENWOOD     55  67  49  73 /  81  11  10   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/BB/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
034>037-040>044-047>049-053-054-059>062-141945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
245 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-
141945-
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
245 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MERIDIAN                32.38N 88.71W
10/13/2014                   LAUDERDALE         MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FEW TREES DOWN

&&

CME

MSZ074-132140-
FORREST MS-
353 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER FORREST COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER MCLAURIN AT 353 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN FORREST COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3110 8929 3110 8931 3112 8933 3119 8933
      3126 8934 3143 8935 3143 8914 3107 8915
      3107 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 197DEG 40KT 3119 8919

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E DELHI               32.46N 91.44W
10/13/2014                   MADISON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TALLULAH                32.41N 91.19W
10/13/2014                   MADISON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND SOME POWER LINES DOWN.

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE AFTON              32.27N 91.17W
10/13/2014                   MADISON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTEREY                31.45N 91.72W
10/13/2014                   CATAHOULA          LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINE DOWN

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
411 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0357 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARRISVILLE             31.97N 90.08W
10/13/2014                   SIMPSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE MENDENHALL         31.93N 89.83W
10/13/2014                   SIMPSON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            A FEW TREES DOWN

&&

CME

MSZ054-055-062>064-132140-
SIMPSON MS-LINCOLN MS-LAWRENCE MS-JEFFERSON DAVIS MS-COPIAH MS-
412 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...MULTIPLE STRONG STORMS LOCATED ACROSS LINCOLN AND LAWRENCE
COUNTIES...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH
WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF LOYD STAR TO ARM AT 412
PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HIGH WINDS CAN BRING DOWN TREES AND LARGE LIMBS RESULTING IN SERIOUS
INJURY OR PROPERTY DAMAGE. EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION WHEN OUTDOORS
DURING SUCH STRONG WINDS...AND BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF OLDER TREES.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHEASTERN COPIAH...NORTHWESTERN JEFFERSON DAVIS...
LAWRENCE...LINCOLN AND EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL SIMPSON COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3144 9064 3161 9063 3161 9068 3163 9069
      3170 9054 3170 9041 3169 9041 3169 9038
      3170 9037 3170 9026 3175 9014 3177 8994
      3172 8975 3165 8975 3140 9009 3134 9061
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 240DEG 42KT 3165 9048 3153 9003

DL