Flash Flood Warning 117, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1044 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...

.UPDATE...EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR BUT
TIMING HAS BEEN MOVED UP JUST A FEW HOURS THAN HOW IT LOOKED OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE SQUALL LINE IS KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP AS
I TYPE WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THIS LINE IN VARIOUS PARTS OF THE CWA. THE MAIN CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL(A WIDESPREAD TYPE
OF EVENT) WITH THE LINE. 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS CONTINUE TO ORIENTED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SO ANY PORTION OF THE LINE/BOWING SEGMENT
THAT PUSHES THAT DIRECTION WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING
STRONGER WINDS/TORNADOES. TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
BUT BACKING OF WINDS IN THE 10-20KFT RANGE WILL BRING SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW BIG OF A THREAT THIS REALLY IS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN 300-400M2/S2 HELICITIES RIGHT AHEAD OF THE LINE AND
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN PEAK HEATING...THIS IS STILL A CONCERN. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS VALID FOR THE DELTA. FLOODING IS NOT A BIG
CONCERN AS THE LINE SHOULD MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT GIVEN RECENT
RAINS IN THE DELTA...THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WONT HELP ANY ISSUES.

WINDS ARE ALREADY PRETTY WINDY IN THE DELTA WITH SOME SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 20-25MPH AND GUSTS TO 30MPH. WILL KEEP THE WIND
ADVISORY IN TACK FOR GRADIENT WIND AHEAD OF THE LINE. REST OF THE
FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ALREADY THIS MORNING THANKS TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL EASILY REACH THE MID AND UPPER 80S...ESPECIALLY
FURTHER EAST AND ANY LOCATION THAT CAN SEE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
AND SEE BETTER INSOLATION. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUES THIS MORNING AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS. LOOK FOR
THE CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR...BUT COULD BOUNCE BACK TO MVFR AT
TIMES. S/SE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AT 17-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OF
30-35KTS. HIGHEST GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE MS DELTA (GLH/GWO). LOOK
FOR THE SQUALL LINE TO BE TIMED EASIER...BUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRE-LINE ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH TOUGHER TO TIME. SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED SO HIGHER END WINDS/SITE RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WHEN
IMPACTED BY A STORM. /CME/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TODAY
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW/COLD FRONT EXTEND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND WILL EXTEND FROM ARKANSAS INTO
LOUISIANA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE LATER
THIS MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH 40-50KTS AT H850 IN THE
DELTA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 40-50KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND 0-3
STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES VALUES RANGING FROM 350-450 M^2/S^2. THE
MODELS SUGGEST PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH 6.5-7.0 C/KM LAPSE RATES
AND ML CAPES OF 1200-1600 J/KG. THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8-2.0 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 70
DEGREES ALONG OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WITH ALL OF THIS SAID IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR A QLCS WITH BOW ECHOES AND
SOME SUPERCELLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE DELTA PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO A
MODERATE RISK WITH A 10% HATCHED TORNADO AREA. DUE TO THIS HAVE
UPGRADED OUR GRAPHICASTS AND HWO TO A HIGH THREAT CATEGORY FOR MUCH
OF THE DELTA.

OTHER IMPACTS TO THE AREA WILL BE GRADIENT WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40MPH POSSIBLE IN THE DELTA SO A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. HAVE ALSO ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE 3-4 INCHES
OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND SOME OF THE SAME AREAS COULD RECEIVE
ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE SEVERE RISK WILL SHIFT TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-55
CORRIDOR BY 6PM OR SO AND EVENTUALLY END BY LATE EVENING AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST OF OUR AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE
EAST DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FILTERING IN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. /15/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...THE SYSTEM DRIVING
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCTION TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CLOSED LOW SLOWLY
PASSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. THE PACIFIC-TYPE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL HAVE CLEARED TO THE EAST OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY
BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW TO BRING A RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AT LEAST NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP HOLD HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOME 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WHICH WILL BE A
WELCOME CHANGE IN COMPARISON TO HEAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING
LATELY.

ANY SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE
AREA WHILE SUNSHINE WILL BE MORE IN ABUNDANCE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CREEPING BACK TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS...BUT STILL
PLEASANT.

FURTHER MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK AS THE CLOSED LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ENCROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK TO AT LEAST SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. MODEL
CONSENSUS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FRONT TO COME INTO THE AREA
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BOUNDARY PERHAPS HANGING AROUND TO
SPUR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE
ODDS OF RAIN IN LATTER PORTION OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MUCH OFFICIAL MENTION. /BB/

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       89  60  69  48 /  93  98  18   7
MERIDIAN      89  64  69  49 /  66  98  31  11
VICKSBURG     87  56  72  46 / 100  64  14   5
HATTIESBURG   90  67  74  50 /  65  98  18   4
NATCHEZ       87  54  70  48 / 100  83   9   4
GREENVILLE    86  57  70  50 / 100  63  28  11
GREENWOOD     86  58  66  49 / 100  87  30  17

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>027-034>036-040>042.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
     025>037-040>042.

LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LAZ007>009-015.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009.

AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ARZ074-075.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

28/CME/15/BB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
245 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-032-
034>037-040>044-047>049-053-054-059>062-141945-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CHOCTAW-
WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-
MADISON MS-LEAKE-WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-JEFFERSON-
ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
245 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-050>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-
141945-
CLAY-LOWNDES-OKTIBBEHA-WINSTON-NOXUBEE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-SCOTT-
NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-LAWRENCE-
JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
245 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...ELEVATED
TIMING...TONIGHT

SEVERE STORMS AHEAD AND ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING SQUALL LINE WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=1)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

CME

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
NWS JAN TROPICAL PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=TROPICAL
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HOME PAGE...
   WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSJACKSONMS
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     HAIL             2 NE ST. JOSEPH         31.94N 91.22W
10/13/2014  E1.00 INCH       TENSAS             LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
338 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE COLUMBIA          31.30N 89.81W
10/13/2014  M52.00 MPH       MARION             MS   AWOS

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
343 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 32.32N 90.21W
10/13/2014  E0.88 INCH       HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
349 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MERIDIAN                32.38N 88.71W
10/13/2014                   LAUDERDALE         MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FEW TREES DOWN

&&

CME

MSZ074-132140-
FORREST MS-
353 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
353 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

...GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER FORREST COUNTY...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER MCLAURIN AT 353 PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN FORREST COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.

LAT...LON 3110 8929 3110 8931 3112 8933 3119 8933
      3126 8934 3143 8935 3143 8914 3107 8915
      3107 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 197DEG 40KT 3119 8919

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
355 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E DELHI               32.46N 91.44W
10/13/2014                   MADISON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A COUPLE TREES DOWN

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TALLULAH                32.41N 91.19W
10/13/2014                   MADISON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND SOME POWER LINES DOWN.

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE AFTON              32.27N 91.17W
10/13/2014                   MADISON            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

CME