Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
900 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING
OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA
LATER TONIGHT BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED NORTH OF A
LINE FROM WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO JACKSON TO MACON MISSISSIPPI...AT
LEAST FOR TONIGHT. SOUTH OF THIS LINE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST
OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH IS SLATED TO
EXPIRE AT 3 AM. HAVE TRIMMED BACK THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND LOWER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS TONIGHT AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TUESDAY FOR THE AREA GENERALLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 55 AND SOUTHEAST OF HIGHWAY 25. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MEI-HBG THROUGH 06Z AS THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO SHIFT SE. WINDS
HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IFR/LIFR CONDS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST AND CNTRL AREAS. CONDITIONS WL IMPROVE TUE BY 15Z AND
STRONG GUSTY SW WINDS WL REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SE HALF OF THE AREA. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014/

..SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...

DISCUSSION...A DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK IS ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI NOW WITH A
CONTINUED HIGH RISK OF MORE STORMS DEVELOPING BACK ACROSS NE LA.
THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED TORNADOES ALREADY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
CAPABLE OF STRONG POTENTIALLY...LONG TRACK TORNADOES THROUGH THE
EVENING AS SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE
TAKE THE HIGHEST OF PRECAUTIONS NOW. PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE IN A
RARE HIGH RISK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE JACKSON
METROPLEX COULD ENTER A WORRISOME TIMEFRAME FROM 5-8PM.

A BAND OF 200-300 M2/S2 0-1 ESRH HAS BUILD ALONG THE I-55 TO NATCHEZ
TRACE CORRIDOR WITH 0-6 KM 55-65 KT SHEAR WITHIN A 2500 J/KG MLCAPE
INSTABILITY RIBBON UNDER 7.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES COINCIDING WITH STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A CYCLONIC JET STREAK PIVOTS ACROSS SRN
AR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WELL VENTILATED TILTED ROTATING UPDRAFTS TO
DEVELOP ALLOWING FOR STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL, LARGE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF GOLFBALLS TO BASEBALLS AND ALSO DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE
WINDS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY GROW UPSCALE AS IT SHIFTS EAST INTO
A BROKEN SUPERCELL TO BROKEN QLCS PER LATEST SHORT TERM NWP AND
OVERALL RADAR TRENDS. TORNADOES, SOME STRONG, WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH GREATEST RISK IN THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI TO A COUPLE COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE BETTER SHEAR
EXISTS. HOWEVER, A TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION AS THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH BY LATE EVENING. HEAVY RAIN WILL
BECOME A CONCERN AS PWATS WILL BE IN THE 1.5-1.7" RANGE. SEVERE
WEATHER RISK WILL END AS A DRYLINE PARTIALLY MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AND THE ASSOCIATED DEEPER LIFT PIVOTS NE OF THE REGION.

A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO
MID MORNING WITH A RESURGENCE OF RENEWED VIGOROUS CONVECTION LIKELY
NEAR NOON THAT WILL START IN WEST MS AND MOVE EAST OF I-55 DURING
THE AFTN AND EVENING AS QG LIFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY OCCURS. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG SHOULD
BECOME REESTABLISHED ALONG AND EAST OF A GREENWOOD TO VICKSBURG TO
ALEXANDRIA LA LINE BY EARLY AFTN TUESDAY. 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
50-70 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PROGGED 0-1
KM SRH APPEARS LOWER THEN VALUES TODAY BUT GIVEN ENHANCED UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE, JET SUPPORT, AND CONVERGENT DRY-LINE SURGE TO HELP
COMPENSATE FOR LOWER VALUES, SOME STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY IN FAR EAST MS AS SHEAR INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO NEXT S/WV PASSAGE. SEVERE WEATHER WILL CLEAR THE ENTIRE
REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

UPDATES TO THE HWO ARE FORTHCOMING TO INCLUDE EXTREME WORKING ALONG
WITH CORRESPONDING GRAPHICS. ALL OTHER UPDATES ARE OUT. /ALLEN/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       64  82  54  73 /  44  68  30  14
MERIDIAN      64  84  58  78 /  91  82  61  14
VICKSBURG     62  81  51  72 /  17  47  14  14
HATTIESBURG   66  85  62  80 /  65  81  45  14
NATCHEZ       64  83  51  72 /  35  43  14  14
GREENVILLE    58  79  51  69 /  18  49  14  14
GREENWOOD     58  81  52  69 /  11  62  22  14

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ031-038-039-
     043>046-048>052-055>058-063>066-072>074.

LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

/22/ALLEN/

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1035 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-MSZ018-019-034-291545-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-BOLIVAR-SUNFLOWER-WASHINGTON-
1035 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

MSZ028>033-036>039-042>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074-291545-
MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-HOLMES-ATTALA-
WINSTON-NOXUBEE-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-HINDS-
RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-COPIAH-SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-
LINCOLN-LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-
FORREST-
1035 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TUESDAY

FLOODING
RISK...ELEVATED
TIMING...TUESDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MERIDIAN
TO NATCHEZ. THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS SITUATION AND FLOODING WILL BE
CONCERN AS WELL.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023>026-MSZ025>027-035-040-041-047-053-059>061-
291545-
WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-
CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-WARREN-CLAIBORNE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-
1035 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THE REST OF TONIGHT AND TUESDAY

TORNADOES
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TUESDAY

FLOODING
RISK...LIMITED
TIMING...TUESDAY

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MERIDIAN
TO NATCHEZ. THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS SITUATION AND FLOODING WILL BE
CONCERN AS WELL.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES...AND FLOODING RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDAY TO AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY.

(WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/GRAPHICAST.PHP?SITE=JAN&GC=3)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUESDAY.

22

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN STRONG TORNADOES WITH RATINGS EF2 OR
 GREATER.
HIGH...STRONG TORNADOES POSSIBLE WITH RATINGS EF2 OR GREATER.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN TORNADOES.
LIMITED...TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF
 75 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
HIGH...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH
 OR GREATER AND/OR 2 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS GUSTS OF
 60 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.
LIMITED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60
 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR 1 INCH DIAMETER OR LARGER HAIL.

*FLOODING*
EXTREME...CONFIDENT IN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.
HIGH...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING POSSIBLE.
ELEVATED...CONFIDENT IN FLOODING.
LIMITED...FLOODING POSSIBLE.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/
SPC...MESO ANALYSIS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/EXPER/MESOANALYSIS/NEW/#
SPC...DAY 1 THROUGH 3 OUTLOOKS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK/
SPC...STORM REPORTS...
   WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/CLIMO/
NWS JAN CURRENT SVR/TOR WATCHES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RTIMAGES/JAN/WATCH/TOASVA.PNG

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER RFC HOME PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LMRFC/
NWS SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOOD OUTLOOK...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/NATIONALFLOODOUTLOOK/INDEX.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESS_RAIN.SHTML
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFERD.HTML
WPC DAY 1 THROUGH 7 QPF...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
WPC QPF DISCUSSION...
   WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/QPFHSD.HTML
NWS JAN OBSERVED PRECIPITATION IMAGES...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=PRECIPMAPS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1037 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSW MERIDIAN STATION  32.47N 88.66W
04/28/2014                   LAUDERDALE         MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES BLOWN DOWN JUST NORTH OF MERIDIAN

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1042 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TORNADO          SANDERSVILLE            31.79N 89.04W
04/28/2014                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SANDERSVILLE. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ON
            ROADS INCLUDING LINDSEY, HIGHWAY 11N, 29TH AT AUDUBON AND
            DALLAS BROWNLEE. MOBILE HOME DAMAGED ON SHERMAN ROAD.
            POWER LINES WERE ALSO DOWN AT 29TH AND AUDUBON.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1044 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0647 PM     TORNADO          2 ESE BRANDON           32.26N 89.97W
04/28/2014                   RANKIN             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            MULTIPLE 12 INCH TREES DOWN AT SHILOH PARK IN BRANDON

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1049 PM CDT MON APR 28 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1026 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STRINGER                31.87N 89.26W
04/28/2014                   JASPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CR 173 HOSE ON FIRE. CR 19 TREES WERE DOWN AND THERE WERE
            SEVERAL POWER OUTAGES AROUND STRINGER. REPORTED BY
            EMERGENCY MANAGER.

1026 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEIDELBERG              31.89N 88.99W
04/28/2014                   JASPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ON CR 35 NORTH OF CR 333 NEAR HEILDELBERG.TREE
            ON A HOUSE OFF OF HIGHWAY11. REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT.

&&

DL