River Flood Warning 16, NWS Jackson, MS

739 
WGUS84 KJAN 300234
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
934 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN 
MISSISSIPPI...

  STRONG RIVER AT D'LO AFFECTING SIMPSON COUNTY 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY SHOULD 
RISING WATER THREATEN YOUR SAFETY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T 
DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES. 48 HOURS 
QPF IS ROUTINELY USED FOR TIBBEE CREEK...LUXAPALLILA CREEK...THE 
NOXUBEE RIVER...AND THE TOMBIGEE RIVER.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM.

&&

MSC127-310500-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140331T0500Z/
/DLAM6.1.ER.140329T1926Z.140330T0115Z.140330T1400Z.NO/
934 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE STRONG RIVER AT D'LO
* UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
* AT  8:45 PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 25.2 FEET. 
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN STEADY THEN CONTINUE TO FALL TO
  BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 25.0 FEET...WATER BEGINS BACKING UP INTO SELLERS CREEK 
  IN MENDENHALL.

&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   SUN   MON   TUE CREST TIME  DATE

STRONG RIVER
D'LO           25  25.2 SAT 09 PM  25.2  19.9  14.1    CRESTING      


&&


LAT...LON 3192 9009 3200 8997 3205 8988 3205 8973
      3189 8989 3182 9005             



$$

637 
WGUS84 KJAN 301414
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
914 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014


...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN MISSISSIPPI...
 
  STRONG RIVER AT D'LO AFFECTING SIMPSON COUNTY


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE OR WALK THROUGH AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS ROADWAYS! THE 
WATER MAY BE DEEPER THAN IT APPEARS. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION IF 
VENTURING NEAR RIVERBANKS. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!

THE FORECASTS ARE BASED ON RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED AND THAT WHICH 
IS FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS FOR ALL SITES.


ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT (USE LOWER CASE LETTERS) 
HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=JAN

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED UPDATE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BETWEEN 8 AND
10 PM.

&&

MSC127-301444-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-140331T0500Z/
/DLAM6.1.ER.140329T1926Z.140330T0230Z.140330T0840Z.NO/
914 AM CDT SUN MAR 30 2014

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE STRONG RIVER AT D'LO.
* AT  8:45 AM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 24.6 FEET. 
* THE RIVER FELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE AT  3:40 AM SUNDAY.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 25.0 FEET. 
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO 20.0 FEET BY TOMORROW
  MORNING.


&&
 
              FLOOD    OBSERVED        FORECAST 6AM       CREST
LOCATION      STG   STG DAY  TIME   MON   TUE   WED CREST TIME  DATE

STRONG RIVER
D'LO           25  24.6 SUN 09 AM  20.0  14.4  10.7     FALLING


&&


LAT...LON 3192 9009 3200 8997 3205 8988 3205 8973
      3189 8989 3182 9005             



$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1127 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

.UPDATE...SOME DRIZZLE WAS PRESENT THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
WAS PUSHING THROUGH...WRINGING OUT WHATEVER MOISTURE WAS LEFT FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE. THE COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT LAST NIGHTS SEVERE
WEATHER IS SOUTH OF THE CWA NOW WITH COOLER...DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
12Z KJAN SOUNDING SHOWS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE REGION WITH
DRYING UPPER LEVELS AND A PW VALUE OF 0.81 INCHES. LOW CLOUDS HAVE
SLOWLY BEEN DISSIPATING THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST AND THE DRIER AIR SETTLES IN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS MOVING
IN ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE CLOUDS TO
COMPLETELY CLEAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SOME
WITH THE INCREASING SUNSHINE BUT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL A LITTLE COOL TODAY. GOING FORECAST WAS IN DECENT SHAPE. LOWERED
HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN A FEW LOCATIONS PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST
WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO CLEAR. /28/

&&

.AVIATION...COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCUMULUS...BUT GRADUAL CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WILL TAKE
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST SITES GOING TO VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE EXCEPTION MAY BE GTR/CBM WHERE COLD ADVECTION STRATUS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING BASED ON LATEST MODEL FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES SUNDAY. /EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IMPRESSIVE MCV WITH
EXITING MCS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL MS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS
LINGERING IN ITS DEFORMATION ZONE...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
82. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PUSH OUT OF NORTH MS BY 15Z...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES OVER THE CWA BY 18-20Z.

DRY NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN AT THE
SURFACE. COLD ADVECTION TODAY WILL BRING WINDS OF 10 TO 20
KNOTS...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS MID 30 DEWPOINTS
ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. TOYED AROUND
WITH THE IDEA OF A WIND ADVISORY TODAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AS BELIEVE
MAX SPEEDS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE JUST UNDER CRITERIA. WHILE TEMPS
SUNDAY MORNING WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 30S IN THE EAST...BELIEVE
THESE READINGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM FOR ANY FROST.

SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS./26/

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE IN CONTROL ON MONDAY FROM A HIGH CENTERED OVER FLORIDA. A
WARM DAY IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS THE UPPER 70S. THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
THAT NOT MUCH WILL CHANGE INTO TUESDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA.

THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS UPPER TROUGHING
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS AND SHORT WAVES BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE
DELTA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OVER THE DELTA AND THIS COMBINED
WITH THE SHORT WAVES WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THESE AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUED TO DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY
AND BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF DRAG A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE PRETTY
CLOSE IN THE TIMING OF THIS AND THEY DUE SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...SO
WILL INTRODUCE THIS WORDING IN THE HWO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. STUCK PRETTY CLOSE
TO GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT DID TREND HIGHS A LITTLE COOLER
TOWARDS THE ECMWF WED-FRI AND ALSO RAISED ABOVE GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  41  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
MERIDIAN      70  38  72  37 /   6   0   0   0
VICKSBURG     70  40  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
HATTIESBURG   70  43  73  43 /   6   0   0   0
NATCHEZ       67  41  70  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENVILLE    65  42  69  46 /   0   0   0   0
GREENWOOD     64  38  69  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

28/EC/26/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
302030-
ASHLEY-CHICOT-MOREHOUSE-WEST CARROLL-EAST CARROLL-RICHLAND-
MADISON LA-FRANKLIN LA-CATAHOULA-TENSAS-CONCORDIA-BOLIVAR-
SUNFLOWER-LEFLORE-GRENADA-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-WEBSTER-CLAY-LOWNDES-
CHOCTAW-OKTIBBEHA-WASHINGTON-HUMPHREYS-HOLMES-ATTALA-WINSTON-
NOXUBEE-ISSAQUENA-SHARKEY-YAZOO-MADISON MS-LEAKE-NESHOBA-KEMPER-
WARREN-HINDS-RANKIN-SCOTT-NEWTON-LAUDERDALE-CLAIBORNE-COPIAH-
SIMPSON-SMITH-JASPER-CLARKE-JEFFERSON-ADAMS-FRANKLIN MS-LINCOLN-
LAWRENCE-JEFFERSON DAVIS-COVINGTON-JONES-MARION-LAMAR-FORREST-
319 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...NORTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER EVENT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY...AND THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED IN LATER FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY.

EC

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

NO SHORT TERM HAZARDS EXPECTED.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN HOME PAGE...
   WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JAN
STAY AWARE, STAY SAFE NWS JAN BRIEFING PAGE...
   WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN/?N=SAFE
FIND NWS JAN ON FACEBOOK...
   WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.JACKSONMS.GOV
FOLLOW NWS JAN ON TWITTER...
   @NWSJACKSONMS

   PLEASE CONVERT ALL WEB ADDRESSES TO LOWER CASE BEFORE ENTERING!

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1231 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S PORTLAND            33.21N 91.51W
03/28/2014                   ASHLEY             AR   PUBLIC

            ABOUT 10 POWER POLES SNAPPED AT THE BASE. REPORT VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA. POSSIBLE TORNADO

&&

JCULIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
205 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             2 SSE CROSSETT          33.10N 91.95W
03/28/2014  E1.00 INCH       ASHLEY             AR   PUBLIC

            REPORTS OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON KING CIRCLE.
            ALSO A FEW TREE LIMBS WERE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
233 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PORT GIBSON             31.96N 90.98W
03/28/2014                   CLAIBORNE          MS   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN IN PORT GIBSON. REPORT RELAYED VIA SOCIAL
            MEDIA.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
249 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PLEASANT HILL           31.72N 90.74W
03/28/2014                   COPIAH             MS   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN IN THE PLEASANT HILL AND UNION CHURCH
            AREA. DIME SIZE HAIL ALSO OCCURRED IN THE AREA.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
304 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1110 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 E NEW HOPE            31.55N 90.77W
03/28/2014                   FRANKLIN           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE TREES WERE DOWNED WITH ONE ACROSS VETO ROAD.

&&

DCOX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
319 PM CDT SAT MAR 29 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MEADVILLE               31.47N 90.89W
03/28/2014                   FRANKLIN           MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME TREES WERE DOWN IN MEADVILLE.

&&

DCOX