Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Lincoln, IL

781 
WWUS53 KILX 202353
SVSILX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
553 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ILC041-049-173-210003-
/O.CAN.KILX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140221T0000Z/
SHELBY IL-DOUGLAS IL-EFFINGHAM IL-
553 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EFFINGHAM...EASTERN DOUGLAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE LINE OF STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE 
WARNED AREA.

LAT...LON 3931 8760 3921 8757 3914 8765 3905 8757
      3898 8821 3987 8785 3988 8753 3936 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 255DEG 56KT 3964 8753 3904 8804

$$

ILC023-029-033-035-045-079-210000-
/O.CON.KILX.SV.W.0006.000000T0000Z-140221T0000Z/
JASPER IL-CLARK IL-COLES IL-CRAWFORD IL-CUMBERLAND IL-EDGAR IL-
553 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EDGAR...
EASTERN CUMBERLAND...NORTHERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHEASTERN COLES...CLARK
AND NORTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CST...

AT 549 PM CST...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM VERMILION TO NEWTON...AND MOVING EAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...
         ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...DENNISON...ANNAPOLIS...EATON...WEST UNION...HUTSONVILLE...
HUNT CITY...LINCOLN TRAIL STATE PARK...ORANGE...DARWIN...WEST YORK...
YORK AND TRIMBLE.

INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 120 AND 154.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

INTENSE SQUALL LINES CAN SOMETIMES PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND
SIGNIFICANT PROPERTY DAMAGE.

&&

LAT...LON 3931 8760 3921 8757 3914 8765 3905 8757
      3898 8821 3987 8785 3988 8753 3936 8752
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 255DEG 56KT 3964 8753 3904 8804

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH

$$

BARKER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
322 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 320 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

Short term issues revolve around a rapidly deepening low pressure
system passing across far NW IL this afternoon, with a cold front
racing across IL and into Indiana by 7 pm. Severe weather
potential will progress east along and south of the warm front.
Areas of very dense fog should dissipate behind the cold front as
well.

Very strong winds will develop as pressure rises reach 12mb per 3
hours. Wind speeds of 30-40 mph and gusts over 55 mph will develop
shortly after the cold front passes. Flooding is already occurring
across Knox and Stark counties where 2-2.5" of rain already fell
earlier today. More rain from the line of thunderstorms could
aggravate the flooding.

Beyond the very busy short term, we have various short waves
expected to move across IL between Friday night and Monday night.
With the colder air also arriving this weekend, most of any
precipitation that does develop should fall as snow. The models
are producing widely varying solutions as to amount and coverage
of any precip during that time, but we wanted to at least
acknowledge the potential for precip due to at least 2 models
showing some precipitation produced by each wave.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday.

A line of storms will race across IL just ahead of the cold front.
Forward motion of the storms is being measured at 60 mph, with a
low level jet of 70 kts just above the LCL. Storms are moving from
to the N-NE towards areas with snow cover and more stable air near
the ground. We expect to see localized damaging winds from the
storm gust fronts in areas along and south of the warm front,
which generally extends from Galesburg to Bloomington at this
point. Isolated tornadoes could develop as wind shear rapidly
increases just ahead of the cold front.

As storms move farther north over snow covered areas, storms should
begin to lose the ability to blast damaging winds through the
stable low level airmass to the ground. The severe thunderstorm
watch goes until 6 pm for out SW counties, but an additional watch
will likely be needed farther east and south of the warm front as
the cold front moves across IL.

Dense fog has caused travel hazards for areas north of Rushville
to Lincoln to Bloomington, and a dense fog advisory will go
through 6 pm.

Shortly behind the cold front, very strong pressure rises will
produce very strong winds for several hours, with the strongest
gusts possibly as high as 60 mph in the first 3-4 hours behind the
front. Pressure rises diminish somewhat later this evening, but
sustained winds will likely remain around 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
at times until midnight. We may be able to remove some of the
wind warning headline a little before 3 am as conditions warrant.

A band of light rain or snow may move into our west-northwestern
counties this evening through just after midnight, but little to
no snow accumulation is expected.

The axis of coldest air behind the cold front will pass across our
forecast area around 12z/6am Friday morning. Clouds will begin to
clear out of our SW areas around that time, but lows should still
remain in the mid 20s north and upper 20 south. Warming occurs
through the day on Friday, as 850mb temps climb from -8C or -9C at 6
am to zero to -2C at 6 pm. West-southwest winds will remain brisk
and help to push high temps into the 40s across the board.

The first shortwave that could produce some light snow is forecast
to arrive Friday night. The GFS and Canadian have been
consistently showing that feature and a dusting to a half inch of
snow across the northern counties. The 12z Canadian did back off a
little on the QPF, but the 12z ECMWF has started pointing towards
forcing for precip during that time over that area as well.

The airmass cools down for Saturday, as high pressure builds into
IL from the NW. The GFS and Canadian once again team up on a
shortwave for Sunday, producing 0.5" to 1" of snow across our W
and N counties. The NAM indicates some snow for our southeastern
counties Sunday afternoon, while the ECMWF is not resolving that
feature as well.

More noticeably cooler highs are forecast for Sunday as readings
top out about 10-12F degrees colder than Saturday.

LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.

The third shortwave is projected to arrive later Monday morning or
Monday afternoon. There is some agreement on this by the GFS,
Canadian, and ECMWF. With 3 models in general agreement, we
increased PoPs into the chance category across the north, for
another 0.5 to 1" of snow through early Monday evening.

A stronger push of cold air will arrive behind that wave, as 850mb
temps drop to -16C to -18C by Tuesday evening. Lows should reach
into the single digits above zero north of Peoria to Bloomington
Tues night, with single digits N of I-70 Wed night. The coldest
highs this week look to be on Thursday as readings remain in the
teens north of a line from Rushville to Champaign.

Light snow may return late next Thursday afternoon and Thursday
night as yet another shortwave pushes into the area.

Shimon
&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1155 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2014

Warm front has lifted just north of KSPI/KDEC/KCMI, shifting winds
back around to the south and gusting to around 25-30 knots, while
east winds around 10 knots continue further north. Should see the
front continue to lift northward over the next couple of hours.
Have had some areas of dense fog primarily north of the front, as
a significant increase in low level moisture moves in with the
front, but this is likely to fade out in the next couple hours.
Line of convection starting to form in central Missouri, and will
move east through central Illinois mid to late afternoon. Have
included about a 3 hour period of VCTS at each TAF site for now,
and will update later to narrow down the time frame once the line
becomes more mature. A cold front will pass by shortly behind the
line of storms, switching winds to the west. Still looks like
gusts of 35-45 knots will be likely this evening, as impressive
pressure rises spread across the state in the wake of a deepening
low pressure passage. Wraparound snow showers may spread as far
south as KPIA/KBMI after 06Z. Have maintained the MVFR conditions
through the night, before improvement early Friday morning. Winds
by Friday morning not quite as high, but still gusting in the 30
knot vicinity.

Geelhart
&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 3 AM CST Friday FOR ILZ056-061>063-066>068-
071>073.

HIGH WIND WARNING until 3 AM CST Friday FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>055-057.

FLOOD WATCH until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>053.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 6 PM CST this evening FOR ILZ027>031-
036>038.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
312 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-211200-
FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
312 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF A CANTON TO BLOOMINGTON
LINE THROUGH 6 PM.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT BETWEEN 3 PM AND
6 PM. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 55 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SPOON RIVER OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

ILZ040>053-211200-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MENARD-MORGAN-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-VERMILION-
312 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 55 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM.

ILZ054-055-057-211200-
DOUGLAS-EDGAR-MOULTRIE-
312 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 55 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM.

ILZ056-061>063-066>068-071>073-211200-
CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-
RICHLAND-SHELBY-
312 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM. SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
LIKELY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES...VERY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE...WITH
GUSTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 45 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LITTLE
WABASH...EMBARRAS...AND WABASH RIVERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BETWEEN 3 PM AND 7 PM.

BARNES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
351 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 E DIVERNON            39.57N 89.64W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   PUBLIC

            NEAR I-55

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
419 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0404 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 W ILLIOPOLIS          39.85N 89.30W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            4 POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN AND SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS
            DESTROYED.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
429 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLOOD            SPRINGFIELD             39.78N 89.64W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

            ONE FOOT OF STANDING WATER AT SEVERAL INTERSECTIONS ON
            THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF SPRINGFIELD.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
443 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0358 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W KINCAID             39.59N 89.45W
02/20/2014                   CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            15 POWER POLES SNAPPED JUST EAST OF POWER PLANT

0420 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PANA                    39.39N 89.08W
02/20/2014                   CHRISTIAN          IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR TOWN

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
449 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TORNADO          1 NE MECHANICSBURG      39.82N 89.38W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            7 OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED. MINOR DAMAGE TO HOUSE. CAMPER
            BLOWN OVER. SEVERAL POWER POLES SNAPPED.

0342 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E DIVERNON            39.57N 89.62W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOF BLOWN OFF BARN.

0405 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W ILLIOPOLIS          39.85N 89.27W
02/20/2014                   SANGAMON           IL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS POWER POLES BLOWN DOWN ON OLD RT. 36.

&&

25

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
459 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TORNADO          2 S PANA                39.36N 89.08W
02/20/2014                   CHRISTIAN          IL   MESONET

            TOUCHDOWN IN AN OPEN FIELD. NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE.

&&

25